Daniel Day Lewis is a 1-15 favorite to win best picture in the sports books. This is a better investment than government bonds, and savings accounts. Your bank is more likely to explode in a ball of God's fiery wraith than Daniel Day is to lose Best Actor. I can't believe this category is even on the board.

Yawn


Thought the oscars were over.

Yawn if you want to, but this is the surest bet ever. Vegas was built on a smaller edge than 6.6 percent.

If I had any money, I'd certainly put a lot of it on DDL. I mean, who else is even nominated? Certainly the most assured Oscar of all time.

I'm in another ( non gambling) message board, arguing with a guy who thinks the Clooney from Michael Clayton has just as good of chance as DDL to win. If it was a gambling web site, I'd give him 2-1 odds ( or pretty much any odds he wanted, but I mean, if he think's it's a 1-1, I'm sure he'd take 2-1) and have him bet up to my entire net worth on clooney, and let a trusted third party hold the money. As it is, it's just some Adam Carolla message board, and all I can do is mock him

LOL nopokermessageboardaments...

I get used to taking about wagering on gambling websites, then when I talk about it to non gamblers, I get shocked that EV isn't like. .a common concept... here are a couple of posts people made


"Nah. No such thing as an Oscar Lock. Gaining 6% doesn't balance out the decent possibility of losing 100%.....
The bigger point is that the Academy is stupid and out-of-touch, and history shows they're just as likely to go with George Clooney as they are with Day-Lewis."





"Agreed. This isn't the stock market, where you can gain or lose 6 percent in a single day, and there are a slew of other outcomes available. Here are the possible things that can happen with this bet:

1) DDL wins, and you gain $6.60 on a $100 bet.
2) DDL loses, and in the words of Gene Wilder, you get nothing.

Given that there is a greater than 0 percent chance of #2 happening, it makes no sense to bet so much money for such a little return. For comparison's sake, you can bet $100 on a tennis match between the No. 1 in a tourney and the No. 200 playing that person, and make about $5 to $10 if that player wins. Even that's a better investment than betting on the Oscars, given the Marisa Tomei potential with every award."


LMAO.. their lack of handicapping skills, coupled with ignorance of basic gambling concepts makes me really want to wager with them. I linked the wiki entry for Expected Value, and I hope it doesn't stick.

Would be worth it if I had like a million dollars to put up .

shit, it would be worth it to put up 100 bucks on it, I'll never sneeze at 6 bucks, that's enough for a BJ in TJ.

more lol I posted a post roughly explaining what a good wager is vs a bad wager, linking expected value, and this is the response I get.



I'm cutting it right here, because I simply doubt you really grasp the idea of gambling. Let's assume everything goes right - You won $6.60 on your $100 bet for DDL. The chances of him winning are probably greater than 90 percent.

But there's still a chance, albeit small, that he'll lose. Your potential loss on such a transaction would be 100 percent, or $100. If you want to gamble, there are some much better options out there, starting with sports betting and blackjack, both of which offer much higher payouts for reasonable risk. Price certainty does not make something a good investment, the risk vs. reward ratio does. The DDL bet requires betting a lot to get a little in return, with the 1 to 10 percent chance of losing everything.

^^^^ LOL. Yeah he's right, blackjack is a much more sure thing.

LOL here's another quote from that board. This is killing me. All my fancy poker book learning has no relevance, I guess. LOL I keep trying to help this guy, I linked him to 2 +2 and linked him to the amazon page for "getting the best of it" and still he keeps coming at me.



Looking back... apparently the thing I said to put your panties in a twist, was that you haven't proven anything regarding the Academy rewarding odds-on favorites at a higher rate (odds-wise) than the field. In other words, if you bet the favorite in every category every year, and I bet the field... guess who'd have more money?

Everything else you've spewed is based on your opinion of DDL's performance, or poker odds applied to Oscar voting, which is akin to using a cookbook to predict a horse race. History is on my side, but apparently that's irrelevant to you.

And I will gladly stop being a one-upper, but I get the feeling you can't resist being a last-word-guy.

This thread is too funny for me. If anyone wants a good laugh, check it out..

http://mahalo.30.forumer.com/index.php?sho...c=2884&st=0

I can see why you'd post the link. You've received a lot of positive, engaging response in this thread, and simply quoting the stuff that no one is responding too just isn't sufficient.

That was great. It's funny when people think they're experts on something but in reality have no clue.

LOL Well Excccccuuuuuuuuuuuuusssssssssseeeeee Mmmmmeee!!!!

I thought a peek into the mind of the sucker would be amusing and educational, my bad.

I got nothing. I'm bored out of my skull and don't have any friends or anything to do. Your link and thread don't affect me in any way. I apologize.

well, obviously that's why I myself am in a flame war on some adam carolla message board LOL. The link may give ya'll a chuckle, is why I posted it to begin with. Glad speedz liked it.

I enjoyed reading that.

You know you have a gambling problem when...........

You know you have a forum posting problem when is more like it lol

Sir Daniel Day-Lewis is going to be drinking milkshakes a plenty tomorrow night. Well deserved. The odds of DDL losing is akin to the chance of Titanic losing all its Oscar nominations in 96.

What are the odds looking like for Best Picture?

Best picture is more of a toss-up with No Country, which I think is more where the guy's argument of "you don't know what will happen at the oscar's" comes in. They're both great films, and Bardem is a cinch for supporting actor, so I don't think there can be a sure-thing bet with TWBB.

On bodog:

TWBB: 1/3

No country: 3/1

you're all wrong!


i say Cate Blanchett wins best Male Actor in a Leading Role

I'd put $50 on Laura Linney at 50/1, Ruby Dee at 7/2, and Juno at 12/1 (TWBB and No Country will definitely split votes)

You didn't bet on Daniel Day??

No, I don't bet. Betting is of the Devil. Each time you place a bet, you are fellating Lucifer!

LOL that TACS thread just gets funnier and funnier. Ron showed up to mock them. They can't possibly understand how ironic that is, or how bad for their case that is. Ron wouldn't piss on me if I was on fire. LOL Good times.

you know what's funny about Grimey? he's also a character in John Q.

Lt. Frank Grimes

I AM NOT GOING TO BURY MY SON! MY SON IS GOING TO BURY ME!

Lol. Really funny thread (the one linked, that is).

Some people are either really stupid, have absolutely no reading comprehension, have no ability to argue, have no ability to understand logic and logical chains of reasoning, or all of the above.

I think Best Picture is going to come down between No Country and Atonement, not There Will Be Blood. I haven't seen Atonement, but I've heard it's amazing and it did win the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, and No Country IMO was the best movie of the year and won best ensemble cast at the actor, and I think is right now the slight favorite.

I've seen Juno, No Country, and There Will Be Blood, and IMO, the order is:

No Country > There Will Be Blood > Juno.

Again, I wouldn't be surprised if Atonement wins, but I don't think Micheal Clayton has a chance in hell at winning best picture.

BigD, I think you would be making a sucker bet at 1-15.

On oddschecker.com, he's 1-10 favorite. Just letting you know!

oooh, maybe the line is moving? Is Clooney making a late charge?

I haven't made any sort of bet on it, it's more theoretical at this point.

Great stuff. Just amazing how someone will argue a point on which they mush know they are ignorant and COMPLETELY outclassed, but just can't help themselves.

...good thing that never happens around here.

Went to a comedy club last night and some comic from New York started to try and go into a joke about "There Will be Blood"

Started his sthick with: "So the Oscars are tomorrow. Just finally saw There Will be Blood. What did you guys think of this movie."

***Confused Silence***

"...umm... ...yeah... I forgot... Detroit, Michigan... uhhh... anyone go to Cost Co. this weekend?'

***Applause*** and about 15 people proudly saying "Yeah, over here, I did!!!"

lol

and I don't know if I "outclassed" this guy" My mathematical grounding in poker leaves a lot to be desired, really. It's just odd for me, after all these years of poker and poker message boards, to actually get into an argument with a guy about EV, and have him completely ignore the concept as if it was crazy talk. The dude doesn't like me, and thus refuses to admit he's wrong about this. won't even consider he's wrong about it. it kills me

I think Atonement is going to win. I think No Country and TWWB are going to split each other's votes and Atonement will end up on top.

I think TWWB is the best film of the three. But No Country and Atonement were both FANTASTIC. You should see Atonement, it's amazing. This year's Oscar movies are really, really good. Best selection in a while.

I agree, and it's the first year that I've actually seen most of the movies before the Oscars. Definitely a good year for movies.














I drink your milkshake.

lol @ you explaining to multiple forums how great this bet is, then not even betting on it yourself. Oh, McGee... you big drama queen you!

LOL pretty much. Hey, I live in Nebraska. It's not like the bookies here are taking Academy awards bets! LOL I still think it's a good bet., and 1-10 is even better.