I was wondering what the better odds are in 5 card stud....

If I'm dealt a hand like 4h 4c 8h 10h 2s

Would it be better to discard 8, 10, 2 and try to hit another 4 for trips to discard the non-heart cards and try for a flush?

Similarly, if you're dealt something like 8 8 6 5 4 are you better off trying to hit trip 8s or drawing for the open ended straight?

Come on Ryan, give the math a try yourself, it's not that hard and you might learn something.

I'll do one for you:



In either case there are 47 cards out there that are unknowns.

Go for 4s: - draw 3, the first card has a 2/47 chance of being a 4, and if it's not, the second is 2/46, and if it's not, the third is 2/45.

Add those chances together (adding because we don't need all of them, just one), and you get about 13%, which by no coincidence is about your odds of flopping a set in Hold'em (since you are drawing 3 cards and the flop is 3 cards).

Note we haven't accounted for the chance that you get two 4s, just that there is at least one.

Now let's try for the flush. Discarding only two, but still working with 47 unknown cards of which 10 are hearts.

The first card must be a heart, so it's odds are 10/47. The second card must be also a heart, and now there's one less, so it's 9/46. Those two numbers must be multiplied together because we need them both to happen. (10X9)/(47X46)=0.0416, or 4.2%.

So the trip 4s have a better chance of coming.

plus the trips have a better chance of getting paid off as drawing two looks like you have trips already.

44 is also a fold predraw.

Unless your in the BB and get to play a hand like this your better off folding, and keeping the pair will win pots more than drawing to a straight, the odds are better in hitting trips or two pair. Other than that hands like these are garbage.

If you don't like math, use logic. A flush beats a set. Therefore it must be harder to hit a flush. A set beats lots of other hands. Go for the set.