Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t1000/t2000
(Ante: t250)
8 players
Converter

Seat 1: UTG+1 (10,139), is sitting out
Seat 2: MP1 (27,555)
Seat 3: MP2 (61,232)
Seat 4: Hero (33,653)
Seat 5: Button (21,640)
Seat 6: SB (54,303)
Seat 7: BB (48,360)
Seat 8: UTG (16,020)

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is CO with
2 folds, MP1 calls t2000 (pot was t5000), MP2 folds, Hero calls t2000 (pot was t7000), Button calls t2000 (pot was t9000), SB calls t1000 (pot was t11000), BB checks.

Flop: (t12000, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (t12000, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks, Button bets t6000, 3 folds, Hero?

Only real read on the villain is that he's cautious and seems like he would lay down a marginal hand if he gets raised. Should I call getting 3:1 hoping for a spade or even an ace on the river, or do I have enough fold equity that I can shove here?

Edit: Reread hand..since he's on the button.. I'd shove.. that bet just seems like a "I'm trying to buy this off as cheaply as possible, but I'm trying to look strong."

But shove or fold Pf as well.. you're limping with less than 20 BB's..

Button didn't bet 1/3 of his stack into a 5-way pot to fold to a re-raise. Period.

You're looking at 9 likely outs if pairing the board doesn't kill you, and up to 12 outs if an ace wins the hand (I'm not thinking this is very likely).So you are between 4.5-1 to 4-1 to make your hand, the pot is laying you 2.5-1, this is a pretty clear fold.

Granted, it was checked around to the big blind twice, increasing the likelihood that doesn't have much of a hand, but you have to give him credit for at least pairing either the K or Q firing 5 ways, and you are still a 4 to 1 dog. This isn't a great spot. I've been wrong before, but there's no way I'm making this play if I'm relying on fold equity to make it profitable *long run*, much less a smart play short-run. We get looked up here way too often, imo.

We could also use the buy-in for the tournament, payout structure, and amt of players left.

$3.30 buyin, pays top 63 out of 660 with the usual FTP prize pool divisions, roughly 3 full tables left.

damn.. we are sooooo dead-to-rights if we're called here, but the buttons 1/2 pot bet just sends the bs-detector off, doesn't it?

I still think we have to lay it down, because while the button doesn't seem overly credible, we've checked *twice*, so we have not even remotely told a story he's willing to believe if we shove over his bet. We have to believe he's calling with any K or Q here. We have little reason to believe him, but there is no reason for him to believe us.

I certainly don't flat-call, because we have 0 implied odds unless he specifically has a lower-flish draw (not impossible, but we certainly can't rely on that for implied odds). I mean, if you want to risk 20% of your stack getting 3-1 on 4.5-1 draw, then I'm not sure what to tell you. If you had some sort of a straight draw here along w/ the flush draw, it would be a lot closer, because you would have outs that would likely get you his stack. We' aren't expecting to get his stack on a spade river, so I'd just bail and wait till the next hand.

When it checks to me on the turn I throw in about 7k

Not true.. I've seen this happen so many times on these Micro/Low limit tourneys..

It's checked to them and they bet out a small amount, only to fold if the pressure is put back on them..


But I also agree with Eddie.. Fire the turn..

With a King and Queen on board? I agree, it certainly simplifies our decision-making process after we make that bet, though, and gives us the odds to chase the ace or spade.



Give me an example of a hand that limps preflop, checks the flop, checks the turn, and shoves to a 1/2 pot sized bet. I agree firing the turn is the best line if we want to get involved, but I still don't like shoving over a bet after showing weakness 3 times, it reeks of desperation.