7-handed 1/2 NL

Villain has been playing tight/passive.

Hero ($250)
Villain ($150)

Hero is BB w/

3 folds, MP calls $2, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks

3-Way Flop ($6)


SB bets $7, Hero raises to $20, MP folds, SB raises to $55, Hero...

I call behind because I'm a station. I don't want Q10/J10 to fold and any made straight K9/98 is not going to fold if we reraise. Since he's tight passive, I don't think that he's on a flush draw. We may able to either bluff the turn if a flush card falls or a king falls or just take a free river if the turn freezes villain if we believe that he can't fold.

Shoves?

i like this line vs the shove for reasons above

although i also try to make it a rule not to play for stacks in a limped pot.

fold or shove, no call here

youre either up against k9 or 98 or even possibly AK

or

open ended straight flush draw

or

gut shot straight flush draw

or

a worse two pair

or

unlikely AQ

or

unlikely a set

or

unlikely KK or AA


If you assign likelihood percentages to these cases and then multiply by your likelihood of winning in each case and add it up youre probably looking at around a coin flip. thus, shoving is fine because you already have 20 in the pot and you get fold equity. Id prob fold since I had you estimated at around 39% so id prefer to fold here cuz you can still get away rather cheap.

actually i take that all back cuz i missed that you said opponent is tight/passive.

that lowers likelihood of two pair and the drawing hands enormously (cause hed probably just call) and increases the made straight likelihood significantly.

I say this is a folding situation.

Call. The only think I can imagine beating you at this point is 98.

That was my first though, now i'm confused because everyone's saying call

I don't think you can call here, to many draws, I think you can fold this, but I probably wouldn't. Tight passive players aren't raising one pair there, Maybe AA or KK.

I say shove > fold > call

hope you have 6 outs to the boat

Shove folds every hand we beat and none of the hands that beat us. Villain is passive so unlikely to be c/r'ing a flush draw.

if a bad card rolls off like a K etc, and villain still bets, it's pretty obvious we're beat here. I don't like shoving when this villain is repping big. I like using our position to eval. what villain does on the turn.

i still like a call way more than a shove but QT and TJ do not always fold here.

Considering stacks, this is going all in by the time we get to the river ... Don't go broke in an un-raised pot. A passive player would call down his two pair, not raise it. He's trying to bump the pot up on a made straight ... K9 89 ... it don't matter.

Don't make blanket rules about anything to do with poker strategy?

Villain is tight passive, so I was 90% sure he wasn't bluffing here. I'd never seen him take a bet/3-bet line, so I was convinced he had a strong hand. This eliminated my option to shove, because I don't think he calls with a worse hand or folds a better one. I guess the question is, is a call or a fold better here if we're 90%+ sure he has at minimum two pair?

You basically put him on exactly K9 or 89. If you think he's got those hands, you just fold. If you think he's got any kind of combo draw or another 2 pair, just shove. I don't think there should be many decisions in the middle.

wow, i didnt even have to type anything, this was my 1st exact thought.

well done gobears