David_Nicoson
Tuesday, January 15th, 2008, 5:40 AM
QUOTE (Zach6668 @ Tuesday, January 15th, 2008, 5:38 AM)

MATT!
We wouldn't want to 4-bet to fold out QJo.
We're not flipping coins with QJo, since he's only seeing 3 cards if we see the flop, we've got a significant equity edge over him, and unless it's super tough to play our hand on the flop, we don't want him folding.
I'm not aware of any tools that help us answer this sort of question. It'd be nice.
The chance of any two cards not making a pair is 2/3.
(42 choose 3) / (48 choose 3) = 0.66
So speaking strictly of pairs and assuming he folds flops that he misses, we're indifferent to whether he calls or folds when we bet the pot. He gets 2:1 from the pot and it's 2:1 against him making a pair.
He's going to find some other good reasons to continue (e.g., straight draws) and we're not going to know when he's outflopped us. So I think I'd prefer that he fold.
One of the nice things about AK is that if we raise with preflop and continuation bet on the flop, and the villain calls us on the flop. we can still be drawing to 6 outs. On the other hand, with TT if we continuation bet on a flop with an over, we're likely drawing to only two outs.