Acid_Knight
Saturday, January 12th, 2008, 3:32 PM
QUOTE (tskillz187 @ Saturday, January 12th, 2008, 3:02 PM)

Maybe Acid will come up with something I like more.
The villains stats kind of line up with a decent aggro sLAG type person. I run at like 24/19 for the most part and my total AF is a bit higher than the villain here. So, if he plays preflop anything like I do, it means that he's probably reraising with a decent range of hands, but would tighten that range significantly when raising an UTG raiser.
I think skillz made valid points about people not auto-betting the turn with QQ, but that doesn't mean that he's not betting a lot of other air type hands and we still can't beat QQ anyway.
I think that if the villain is at all competent, that we're gonna have a very hard time showing a profit by continuing with this hand past the flop. I'm not saying that we called preflop to set-mine, but I really think that I don't hate a c/f that much on this flop. It's not as much that I don't think we have the best hand because even tightish players can choose to 3-bet pre with AQ and 88-TT.
It's like, ok, we raised UTG and got RR'd. Obviously against a decently tight 3-betting range, JJ isn't way ahead, but it's not crushed either, so I think that calling is best. We see this flop and then we try and figure out what to do. We can't beat QQ+ or AK or even KQ if he chose to RR with those. Being OOP and it being unlikely that we don't have a K, he's probably gonna fire another turn shot with AQ a lot of the time. He's probably gonna fire again with most airballed hands as well, like if he chose to raise us with suited connectors or something. So, by calling the flop, we're really crossing our fingers and hoping that he has a med pair smaller than ours and chooses to try and show it down as cheaply as possible.
This is probably a really good example of a spot where there's a good enough chance that we have the best hand, but we still won't be able to show a profit with it because we're OOP against a fairly aggro villain.
I really think that c/f is best, not because we don't think we're ahead of his overall range, but because we're still not gonna be able to make enough +EV plays given the situation we find ourselves in.