PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)

CO (Villian) ($3.10)
Hero ($14.04)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A , T . MP3 posts a blind of $0.05.
4 folds, MP3 (poster) checks, CO =#A500AF(Villian)/ calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.2, 2 folds, MP3 folds, CO =#A500AF(Villian)/ calls $0.15.

Flop: ($0.52) K , 6 , 9 (2 players)
Villian bets $0.05, Hero raises to $0.4, Villian calls $0.35.

Turn: ($1.32) Q (2 players)
Villian checks, Hero checks.

River: ($1.32) 4 (2 players)
Villian bets $0.25, Hero ...

When I play a flush draw, I generally raise on the flop - more often than not, if called, it leads to the villians checking the turn so I can get a free card if I don't hit. But mainly I raise because it seems so transparent to call with a draw and raise when I hit, and I find that people frequently fold to a bet if I don't raise the flop.

Assuming no reads, is this is the right play? Should I lead the turn as well? or just take the free card?

i would lead the turn as well about 3/4 of the pot

If you don't bet the turn, you're pretty much forefieiting the pot against most players.

Bet the turn. You picked up more outs.

Thanks for the responses guys. I'll try leading the turn too in future.

Just to address some of this theory.

Getting a free card isn't necessarily a good thing in NL. It's probably not profitable, given the amount of money you'll need to put in on the flop, compared to our equity in the pot. The biggest reason to raise the flop with a flush draw is as a semi-bluff. For that reason, most of the time, especially when you do have some showdown value, in position, it's in your best interested to fire the turn again, and continue with the semi-bluff.

Fwiw, your flop raise, followed by a turn check makes your FD way more transparent, IMO.

Also, if you think calling the flop makes your FD obvious, it probably means you're not calling enough flops with other hands.

There's a call button?

If we bet the turn and the villain check/raises us all-in, it's an easy call and we're not giving up that much. Our line is representing AK and it appears our ruse is succeeding. There are places that I check behind with a lot outs, but this isn't one of them.

Here is 1 way to NOT play a draw.

happened tonight.

1/2 NL

small raise pf. 3 calls. flop is 9,J,3 with two diamonds.

sb leads out for 10, MP raises to 40., and c/o moves all in for 140 total. SB then re-shoves 10d,Qd to 280. and MP folds.

IMO, his re-shove is retarded. MP folds AJ. face up.

You're saying you'd rather call to try to drag MP in along with us?

yes.

I realize we're going to be a winner more than often enough to make the play profitable, but I think that I'd always play the hand like the SB did in your example. I'd much rather be HU with someone. I'm more than happy to tell someone I have a big hand and make them think about folding two pair, a better flush draw, etc. Him turning over AJ there is pretty much the only hand that he'd think about coming along with that we want him to come with.

I don't like people clowning around in my big pots without the goods, especially if I think I can get them out if they might be eating my outs.

you realize that the c/O is all in right?

and we have a draw, 1 to the nut straight, 1 to a Q high flush.

why wouldnt we want another person investing money here? we win nothing more by going HU against the all in. and Its safe to say that we will have to hit 1 of our outs to win.

* If you think they are "eating your outs" any sort of call/push is horrible then. If you think they ave 2 pair, why are you afraid to have them in the pot?

there is a bet, a raise. then he pushes.. What do you think C/O s pushing with? worse than 2 pair? IMO, probably 2 pair or a set. which means he and MP usually have eachothers outs. and we're drawing live.

Well, for one, folding out the other guy might clean up our T or Q outs.

Secondly, we don't have "only a draw", we have substantial equity against every single hand out there, even HU.

you're not that much of a favorite. if there is any money in the pot at all you do better if he folds his aj there.

No, its ridiculous to even ponder the idea of our 10 or Q being an out. (if you think C/O pushes with a FD....but then we have to assume its the nut draw and we're now hoping to hit a K,8, 10, or Q that isnt a diamond. )

if by "substantial equity" you mean we're a coin flip vs the worst scenario, then Ok. If you're saying that we dont need a 3rd call, because we're already getting close to 2-1, well thats kinda silly.

maybe you can clear up your line of thinking?





I dont know how to reply to this.

I'll just ignore it.

Mitch, I want to see you back up your ideas with numbers, and EV analysis, please.

you're very rude and arrogant for somebody who can't see something very obvious.

3 Handed
with Qd,10d, (including a set)

we're 44% to win vs 9,9 *47%(with 9 of diamonds) and vs. J,9 *9%


on a board of Jd, 9c, 3d. (no sets)

we're 48% to win vs J,9 *40% and A,J *11% (with the A of diamonds). 0.50% chance of tie between villains.


HU

Qd,10d * 40% vs 9d,9s *60% (a set)

on a board of Jd,9c,3d


Qd,10d vs Js,9s. (no set)

on a board of Jd,9c,3d. its exactly 50/50.



*Suppose MP player calls the extra 100, and folds the turn. thats 280+original preflop pot (roughly 30), and we've invested 140. so we're getting 2.2-1. (ignoring our first $10 bet)

*We push MP out, the pot is now 180+originial preflop pot we're getting 1.5-1 on our money (ignoring our first $10 bet)


When you realize that your % chance of hitting and winning doesnt improve by pushing out MP, you can see its +EV to hope his money goes in also.

dude, your post made no sense.

sorry if you thought it was rude, I was just saying i didnt know how to reply to it

Mitch, use hand ranges, and Pokerstove. We don't know what either of these people have, specifically.

Ok, i have no experience inputing hands into poker stove.

here is 1 attempt.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

50,956,290 games 1.763 secs 28,903,170 games/sec

Board: Jd 9c 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.671% 55.25% 00.42% 28155589 212154.33 { QdTd }
Hand 1: 32.741% 32.62% 00.12% 16622720 60833.83 { 33+ }
Hand 2: 11.588% 11.24% 00.35% 5725918 179074.83 { random }


---


Attempt 2


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,977,570 games 0.062 secs 31,896,290 games/sec

Board: Jd 9c 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.903% 51.82% 00.08% 1024815 1608.00 { QdTd }
Hand 1: 15.091% 13.90% 01.19% 274854 23583.00 { 22+, AJs, J9s, J3s, AJo, J9o }
Hand 2: 33.006% 31.89% 01.11% 630735 21975.00 { AJs, J9s, J3s, AJo, J9o, J3o }


---

How about this.

Give me the range you think both players have, based on the flop action, up until the point where SB decides to push.

We'll go from there.

I'm kinda interested to see how the numbers fall, but since I don't feel like playing right now, let's see if we can tag team this and come up with some numbers.

The weakest part of my NL game is assigning ranges, so I'll leave that up to you.

gogogogo

ps - what time to beer stores open in Ontario?

i think they open at 10am.


Ok for the ranges.

MP - I would assign, AJs, AJo, KJs, KJo 33,99,JJ, J,9, J,3,

C/O I would assign similar to MP, with 1 exceptions I add the possibility of a Nut flush draw + pair (Ad,9d)

Ok, let me mess with stove for a minute, but in the meantime, if we overshove, of CO's range, what do you expect him to instacall with? What do you expect him to instafold? And which hands could go either way?

EDIT - sorry, meant instafold for the second one

Actually, one more thing.

Do we expect MP to come along with his entire range if we just call?

==============

If so, what do we forsee as the turn action on a blank, a scary card (doesn't make our hand), and a card that makes our hand?

Thanks.

My intuition says that Royal Tour is right. He's bluffing into a dry side pot. I'll be interested in seeing the numbers at the end.

Does MP cover?

I'm not smart/ambitious enough to tackle this anymore, lol.

I think someone like you could do it, though.

There's a contradiction between queens not being outs and half the other player's hands being a Jx.

Zach, you suck for being lazy. OK, you're my hero.

If all three players call the flop, then the pot is ~20+140x3 = 440. The SB's equity is 48.9% or 440 x 0.489 = $215. He paid $100 for it, so a call is +$115 in EV.

If he shoves and MP folds, then the pot is ~20 + 40 + (140 * 2) = 340. The SB's equity is 52.9% or 340 x 0.529 = $180. Again, he paid $100 for it, so a shove is +$80 in EV.

So it's better to call with these ranges. Like RT pointed out, the SB's winning percentage barely goes down by adding another player.