I'm new to this converter deal, how would you have played the Q8?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $50 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($925)
MP2 ($4569)
MP3 ($15524.50)
CO ($7791)
Button ($9538)
Hero ($12126)
BB ($5075)
UTG ($2272)
UTG+1 ($5593)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, Q.
UTG calls $50, 5 folds, Button calls $50, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($200) Q, Q, 4 (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Button bets $150, Hero calls $150, BB folds, UTG calls $150.

Turn: ($650) T (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, Button checks.

River: ($650) J (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $400, Button folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $650

lol Daniel. Ty for converting.

I think, if I'm playing this hand as passive as you did, I'm calling the river closing the action.

i lead the flop a lot at lower stakes. here i understand the deception factor so i think the check is ok. now that we are at the turn i definitely take the lead the UTG caller suprised me and i think i wanna get an idea of where i'm at. since the turn goes c/c/c i would plan on c/calling most all river bets including this one.

your obv putting villian on 44 TT or bigger Q which are all possible holdings with the UTG limp and c/call on flop, lead river. i'm guessing this is almost ur exclusive range for this line and that is why you folded. i'm not quite good enough to fold this c/f this river.

If you are calling, what hand can you put the UTG limper on that you can beat after he makes an over call on the flop and then bets the river? Do you really think he has A4? Possibly AA? If he has a Q, could his kicker possibly NOT play with the board reading J-10? I could tie Q-9, but would he limp with Q-9 in a full ring game UTG?

How often do you think you'll make this call and win the pot? How often will you chop, and how often will you be beat?

A read on UTG would be good. Given that he's shortstacking I'm assuming he's not a reg at those stakes.

Given your penchant for playing passive with a huge range I like the flop play. You're repping a 4 mostly and button has a huge range. He probably has nothing and you can continue to check/call down (and he'll probably put you on king high or some random weak junk).

UTG's overcall there *could* be something like 77/88, and it *could* be AA/KK trap gone wrong, but other than that his range is strongly centred around QJ/QT/Q9/44. Had he been open limping much? AQ raises preflop, KQ too (probably).

I can't really think of a hand you beat on the river. You split with Q9 now, which is a reasonable possibility. Would he limp with low Q-X's?

Meh, I probably pay it off for $400.

15/2/83

Fold preflop?

I think it's pretty clear that we're behind when UTG flat calls the flop.

Does UTG limp with big pairs? That seems like the only thing that he can call with that we beat.

Eh, that's a good point, I suppose. NL is clearly nowhere near my strongest game. Maybe stick to the LHE hands, plz.

Seriously though, hmmm. I guess AA would be a possibility. It just feels like there wasn't enough action for us to be sure we're behind, since we've under repped our own hand so much.

We need to be ahead on this river 38% of the time to breakeven, for what it's worth.

We chop with every Q worse than ours, but I'd say most/all of those are unlikely. We do beat AA and random bluffs. I doubt in a 3-way pot he'd be trying to v-bet a hand like A4 or 77 or something.

You're probably right here. It's really hard to assign a range to an unknown here, IMO. Some reads on his UTG limping range would be so helpful. I don't think he shows up with TT or JJ, although it's a reasonable way to play either of them postflop, I just doubt he limps them preflop, so I'll ignore them. 44 is possible, AA if he was looking to limp reraise, QJs, QTs, Q9s (maybe), KQ, AQ are all possible, and of course, we lose to all of those and tie one. We even lose to AK now, although it's unlikely given flop action. Meh, it's really hard to find a reasonable hand we're ahead of.

Given that range (excluding hands I've ruled out or deemed unlikely):



We've actually got enough equity to call here, but that assumes he plays AA this way. That's the hand that really swings the numbers, since the combos of Qx hands are so small. If we say he limps AA say 1/3 of the time, we actually fall down to 20% equity. So basically, it's probably a fold overall.

Ok, I'm down with the fold after my analysis.

And, one more thing, on preflop, as was mentioned before, what about folding preflop? I realize someone with superior postflop skills can play more hands postflop, but if we're flopping three queens and not really thrilled about it, I'm not really sure I want to play Q8o out of position. What kind of flop and action were you looking for? It seems, with our thinking in this particular hand, that when you do hit a flop with Q8, we're probably only getting a lot of action from worse hands. Agree?

PS - I'm loving the strategy posts, Daniel. Please keep them coming. Thank you.

I agree with folding preflop being best. Hands like this just don't play well OOP and we're gonna get into trouble more often than not I think. If you had Q9 or Q8s that flops a little better, I would like it more. I'm pretty sure you're not giving up an ounce of EV by folding this preflop.

UTG overcalling the flop bet seems like a lot of trouble. If we make the reasonable assumption that he's either got a better Q or a good pair (99+) here most of the time, then I think folding the river is best.

Also, Zach, you really should include JJ and TT in there since they seem to make more sense than any hand for playing like this. I mean, the chance that he's bluffing with any kind of air-type hands after overcalling the flop is really unlikely.

Adjusting to my "NL mind" is so hard after focusing on LHE for so long.

I dont mind completing the sb. too many people here focus on folding and saving bets. in multitabling cases i agree. playing 1 or 2 or 3 tables. I dont mind the occasional completion with mediocre hands.

I check.-call the flop just like played.

but i lead the turn. just like what happened, we run the risk of it checking through.

This is an odd situation because UTG limped, and only smooth called the flop after a bet and call.

I`m starting to think he doesnt hold a weak Q. I lean toward a KQ or AQ. but would he limp those UTG.... has he been playing tight.. if so, is limping KK and AA in his arsenal...

without that info, i lean towards a call because of his range. The turn checked through, you checked the river, so he eliminated a Q from both your holdings, and value bets AA, KK...

That scenario with KK or AA is the ONLY scenario where we're ever really ahead here. So much more of his range is made up of a better Qx, JJ, TT and 44.

Also, if completing the SB with Q8o when MTing is a leak, then it's a leak at 1 table as well.

I believe I would have lead the turn. As played, I think I would have had to call down the river even if just find out what he's limping with UTG. Is there a chance he limped with a suited A4 and figured 2 pair with an ace was good? I don't know who the hell would limp UTG with A4, but it happens.

He limped. He overcalled a bet on that flop and now he's apparently value betting the river into 2 people. I would give 1000-1 that this is NOT A4 for value.

I would never recommend folding this for 1/2 a bet from the SB in a limped pot. This is an unlikely situation, the way it played out, but that doesn't mean putting in $25 is a losing play. It isn't.

As for not leading the turn, I had already decided that if I checked and there was a bet from one of the other players in the pot that it would be highly likely that one of them had me beat, no question about it. Rather than pay a bet on the turn to find out where I'm at, I can check and pay attention to the action and accomplish the same thing, only cheaper.

I didn't mean that as I'm certain he's VBing with A4 on the river. I just simply asked if it was a possibility? At NL50BB I would hope that that wouldn't happen, but what do I know? The more I think about this hand, the more I get confused. As played, I'd still call the river just out of curiosity and expect to be beaten with a better Q. I would have folded preflop though. I don't like playing hands like Q8os OOP, but I'm no flop master like DN either.

Without reading replies...

I play preflop the same.

I vary what I do on the flop, sometimes leading out for $150, sometimes check/calling, rarely check/raising.

Since UTG overcalled on a flop that contains no drawing possibilities, I would lead the turn because I want to find out where I am at against UTG's hand. Also, Button could now have a draw with a hand like KJ that I don't want him checking behind, since for all we know Button could easily have just tried to pick up the pot on the flop in which case he will not follow through with a bet on the turn. Given how the flop was played, I lead for about $400 on the turn in that situation.

The rest of the hand changes too much based on the $400 lead I would make depending on what the opponents do, so I can't comment on the river in that situation.

As played with the turn checking through, I like the river fold unless you have a read on UTG that he limps some marginal hands UTG like A4, or a queen less than or equal to Q9, also if he often limps KK or AA your hand might be good, but it costs a lot into what turned out to be a rather small pot to find out...

Edit: I'm with everyone else on the give us some reads thing, even if you've only played with your villains for an hour you should have some small understanding of how they play. Without reads, it's really hard to gauge how strong UTG might be.

I think the important issue is the relative skill of the players involved in the hand. The question is, can I take this marginal hand and play it out of position for a profit after the flop? If the stacks are very short or we're playing structured limit, then I care about preflop pot odds. Here, though, they're nearly a non-issue.

I don't know how much credit to give to this read, but I find that with UTG stack, which at 45bb, is often a good sign that someone is kind of a donk, atleast at the lower levels. Unless its a shorty that doubled up most of the better players seem to have atleast 100bb or they're a shorty with something around 20bb. Again this isn't definite but I think it makes it more like that he could have a hand that he either shouldn't be calling the flop with or a hand he shouldn't be betting the river with.

Im still not sure if that turns this into a call or not cause like others have said the only hands that we should be beating are AA or KK.

I don't think it's highly likely you're beat just because UTG overcalled the flop, what about 55+? Do you think he leads those on the flop most of the time instead? It kind of depends how savvy he is as well. He could have overcalled with the sole intention of running a bluff.

Naismith (9:51:04 PM): I'm posting. I'm going to put him in his place.

I can't wait...

This seems very unlikely given that the pot is multiway and he doesn't even have position.

I agree with this. It's also too likely that Daniel has a Q here and running some weird multi street bluff in a multiway pot is just burning money.

Okay, I'm in the camp that this is a fold preflop and I don't think it's even close. I don't see how playing Q8 OOP is going to get us into anything except trouble. What are we hoping to hit with it? Trips? Apparently not even that is a good flop. This hand is a pretty good example of us hitting a dream flop and still not liking our hand.

Do you feel like people play back at you more frequently than they would if you were playing on an anonymous account? I generally bet out trips from the blinds because you never get credit for betting out trips. Since that's considered the "smart play", I'm not sure whether you would be given more credit for having a hand here since you're a known good player or if you get less credit because people love to play back at you.

Your hand is so under-represented here that it's tempting to say call, but the only thing you're ever beating is a hand UTG decided to turn into a bluff (55-99) or a slowplayed AA-KK. I almost am leaning more towards the slowplayed AA-KK because any of the hands with a Q in it that beat you (AQ, KQ, QJ) are raising hands UTG and any of the pairs that boated up (TT, JJ) aren't really strong limp-trap hands. Do we have any reads on UTG? Is he a good player? I just don't see a lot of UTG limping from good players with hands that beat us.

(I think I need to enter a brief aside here to apologize for the rambling but I'm thinking this through as I type rather than prior to typing)

I certainly understand the logic with this passive line, but I think we lose a lot of value and information in this spot. I think we've allowed UTG to call the flop bet with, say, 77 and then make a play on the river because we've shown weakness throughout. It takes a pretty solid read to say, "I'm calling with my trips and if anyone calls behind, I'm done with the hand." What do we do if the board runs out 2 & 3 on the turn and river? Are we still done with the hand?

Okay, I think I've organized my thoughts enough to summarize how I feel:

I feel like this hand is played poorly on every street, to be honest with you. I hate completing with it from the SB since there are almost no flops we like. I hate check-calling the flop. Once we've check-called the flop, I think betting the turn is mandatory to put UTG to a decision with the button behind him to act. Once we've played the previous streets as played, I think we need to call the river because we've under-repped our hand so dramatically and the UTG player's limping range should be so narrow that a lot of hands that beat us aren't in it. This last sentence is obviously moot with some reads that suggest UTG open-limps AQ, KQ, QJ, JJ, TT, 44.

EDIT: Just wanted to add that I feel the range of hands that beat us is exactly 44.

I really like the flop flat call because really, what other choice do we have once we check? I agree leading is best, but if we c/r and one or both opponents call, then what do we do? We're OOP and they could be floating or crushing us. I think that leading the turn is the point in this hand that could've salvaged the operation. Putting UTG to a decision with the button still to act would be huge for us in terms of defining his hand.

I think that at these limits, people are more than capable of limping TT or JJ UTG. Not necessarily as a trap, although they'd have that option, but just because it's going to be a really messy hand if the players at the table are calling a lot of raises. Maybe they're just balancing their ranges, who knows.

I think that players are definitely capable of limping UTG with the entire range of hands that beat us.

Overall I agree with pretty much everything in your post except for the assertion that we need to call because our hand is under-repped. If we feel we're crushed by his range and it's unprofitable to be calling, then a fold is in order.

Naismith (10:32:22 PM): I think limping UTG is so bad with hands that beat outs.
Naismith (10:32:23 PM): Ours.
Acid_Knight (10:33:03 PM): yeah
Naismith (10:32:31 PM): But that doesn't mean people don't do it.
Acid_Knight (10:33:08 PM): in a vacuum it is
Acid_Knight (10:33:12 PM): but
Acid_Knight (10:33:16 PM): we don't know about the player
Acid_Knight (10:33:26 PM): for all we know, he's a super good pro
Naismith (10:33:15 PM): Yeah, definitely.
Acid_Knight (10:33:50 PM): and he balances the shit out of his ranges by limping every hand he'll play UTG so that he can get away with cheaply seeing a flop with T9s because he could be limping KK
Acid_Knight (10:34:00 PM): and he could be limping TT
Acid_Knight (10:34:01 PM): and 22
Acid_Knight (10:34:03 PM): and everything
Naismith (10:33:39 PM): I also don't hate calling for that same reason.
Naismith (10:33:45 PM): Balancing out hands we'll check-call with.
Naismith (10:33:51 PM): Even if it costs us 400.
Acid_Knight (10:34:29 PM): yeah
Acid_Knight (10:34:32 PM): i guess
Acid_Knight (10:34:35 PM): i mean
Acid_Knight (10:34:43 PM): unless he's taking a hand like 99 here
Naismith (10:34:11 PM): I'm not saying to throw away 400.
Acid_Knight (10:34:47 PM): and turning it into a bluff
Acid_Knight (10:34:52 PM): we're not beating him
Acid_Knight (10:34:58 PM): because he overcalled that flop
Acid_Knight (10:35:06 PM): when it's so apparently that a lot of DN's range is Qx there
Naismith (10:34:39 PM): I think it's more likely a pair he's turning into a bluff or a weird v-bet line with AA.
Acid_Knight (10:35:27 PM): i still think he checks back AA or KK a lot there
Acid_Knight (10:35:38 PM): or leads the flop
Acid_Knight (10:35:40 PM): or doesn't overcall
Naismith (10:35:18 PM): Yeah, the flop check makes me think AA-KK is less likely.
Acid_Knight (10:36:00 PM): well
Acid_Knight (10:36:03 PM): the flop check is fine
Acid_Knight (10:36:08 PM): i mean, if he as KK or AA
Acid_Knight (10:36:10 PM): but the overcall
Acid_Knight (10:36:13 PM): that's really sketchy
Acid_Knight (10:36:27 PM): i mean, it's kind of sketchy to overcall that flop with anything that's NOT a Qx hand
Naismith (10:35:59 PM): Okay, let's say he has AA or KK there.
Naismith (10:36:04 PM): And he does overcall.
Naismith (10:36:41 PM): When it gets checked through the turn and checked to you again on the river, I don't think it's terribly unlikely someone v-bets there.
Acid_Knight (10:37:28 PM): yeah, but really all he's got is a bluff catcher
Naismith (10:37:02 PM): LOL
Acid_Knight (10:37:37 PM): what's gonna call?
Acid_Knight (10:37:47 PM): what's he gonna get value from?
Acid_Knight (10:37:55 PM): that called the flop bet
Acid_Knight (10:38:05 PM): i dunno
Naismith (10:37:40 PM): Negreanu's J4o!
Naismith (10:37:40 PM): That rivered three pair!
Naismith (10:38:13 PM): All I know is UTG played the hand badly, I don't care what he had.
Naismith (10:38:33 PM): Unless he had two pieces of paper and said, "I know DN has the Q, but my overcall is soooo strong."
Acid_Knight (10:39:13 PM): lol
Acid_Knight (10:39:16 PM): that'd be impressive
Acid_Knight (10:39:36 PM): but, i already said running a multi street bluff there against 2 players on that dry of a board is suicide
Acid_Knight (10:39:46 PM): especially considering, THERE'S NO MONEY IN THE POT
Naismith (10:39:08 PM): I think it's super lame to move this hand from our section.
Acid_Knight (10:39:47 PM): yeah
Naismith (10:41:45 PM): UTG is going to turn out to be, like, Antonius and I'm going to look really smart calling him a donk.

Best line in that whole conversation.

I'm still sticking with my first reply. I would have lead the turn after check/calling and called the river as played.

As I stated before, I opt to make completions with mediocre hands. Myself, I dont like Q8, but thats not too say DN cant just play it.

when You play lots of live poker, you focus more on your reads of every player at the table opposed to your hand itself. ( i know i dont have to tell you guys. or quote rounders)

But to say that completing is a leak? no way. "not even close, only going to get you into trouble?" If you cant play trash hands OOP successfully than I can see where you would rather just save the 25. Sometimes being first to act has its advantages. and this being a 25/50NL game I think people are capable of knowing when to lay down Top pair no kicker. so i think its safe to say we can rule out the idea that DN is going to spew chips on a board of Q,J,3 if there is any aggression.

Cool, so we don't have to worry about losing a lot of chips on a QJ3 board with it and we're not winning any on a QQx flop. Tremendous. Why are we playing it again?

What about the Daniel Negreanu factor? "I ran a complicated bluff on Daniel Negreanu!"

why arent we winning the QQx flop? we havent seen results yet. I'm a big fan that we do win with Qx on this board. which is why i make the river call.

We aren't winning because we folded. We folded because it's so hard to play a crappy hand like this, even on a dream flop.

no trick, reverse psychology posts.

The day I started folding Q8 from the small blind is the day I quit poker. Seriously, never going to happen unless it's a misclick! Just being in the hand gives you a chance to win it, you don't have to flop anything at all:

Example: flop is 7-4-2 and I check my Q-8, it gets checked around. Turn is a 4, I bet 150... and win the pot a very high percentage of the time. Balancing out bluffs like that, bluff catching, while ALSO minimizing your losses when you are trapped is how you make junk hands profitable OOP.

A Q-Q-4 flop in a limped pot simply isn't a "dream flop" at all since it's dangerous. A flop like 8-4-2 is closer to a dream flop, or even better Q-8-4 with two of a suit, etc. I can't imagine folding while getting 7 to 1 is a good idea, position or not.

As for my play of the hand, also notice the bet size the limper chose on the river. It screams of a value bet. Of course, if he knew that I'd think that it would be a good amount to bet as a bluff, but the idea of a bluff in this situation is very unlikely. Possible, but not likely enough to call getting 2.6 to 1 even though I could also beat AA or KK.

Check calling the flop and leading the turn isn't a "bad play" at all and it could give you more information. Having said that, my choice is an even better play IMO as I'll still get information on the turn by checking. If either player bets the turn in that situation making a habit of folding will save you money in the long run.

I think we can eliminate AA or KK from the utg limper simply because he didn't bet the flop. In this spot he usually bets that flop to see where he is at, if he gets called or c/r he can slow down assuming that someone has a Q. If he is still slowplaying or just c/c with AA or KK after this flop he has no idea if he is good or not.

If the UTG player is Daniel Negreanu, does he want a second Daniel Negreanu to complete in the small blind with Q8o? Surely he can outplay the Daniel Negreanu in the small blind.

It's entirely possible that you are making money with junk in the small blind. I'm also pretty sure that I'm not. It's a knowable thing online. Are you using pokertracker?

I maintain that 7:1 means almost nothing. If the hands checks around on 4 streets, then yeah. But I don't expect that to happen. In your example, you end up bluffing with air. To try to win the pot, you invested the $25 plus the $150. So the whole gambit is really laying you only 1.17 : 1. That's obviously fine if you're winning the pot often with this bet, but compare this to playing Q8o on the button with a limper in the cut-off. Here you're getting only 3.5 : 1 preflop. After you run a similar bluff (and I recognize that you might need a different board to be effective), you're getting 1:1. The cost of running the bluff (or of snapping off a bluff) dwarfs the cost of the tickets for the hand.

So I think it stands to reason that if we can make money completing the small blind we can make money limping on the button with junk. You may do this also successfully. In neither case are you making money on the long odds the preflop call is giving you.

Is the UTG limper LittleZen?

That guy shortstacks anywhere from 5/10 to 100/200 but i think he might be a reg.

Daniel,

I understand that you're getting awesome pot odds, but do you really think that you're going to win enough pots to make this profitable? There is usually a slightly worried feeling about anyone who limps UTG in a FR game actually having a big hand, and then there's still the LP position player to worry about. Nobody is doubting your postflop skill here, but it just seems that it will be a very hard hand to play profitable against 3 other opponents when we are out of position.

There is something to be said about image plays and stuff, but if you're gonna play trash from the SB, play 23o. Play a hand that is never dominated. Play a hand that can make a good winning hand. We're completing here with a hand that can never flop a flush, can flop the 2nd nut straight on JT9 or 1 card straight draws and we're not even loving it when we flop top trips because Qx hands are so likely for our opponents to have.

So, what the hell are we looking for then? Are we really playing this hand OOP, hoping for a board that misses 3 other players and none of them decide to stab at it and we're able to pick up the pot? Yeah, sometimes we flop 2nd pair and we know we're good. Sometimes we find weakness in our opponent's line and raise to take the pot away. I can do that with any hand. Give me 56o here all day because I can flop more solid hands and I can still prey on the those weak lines the same way that I would with this hand.

I am fine with you saying "sometimes I play it and sometimes I don't" but for you to say that the day that you fold Q8o from the SB is the day you quit poker, what do you think you're giving up by folding a hand that weak in a position that weak?

Okay, so the point you're making isn't about Q8, it's about the dealer remembering to deal you two cards. Certainly the situation you're talking about, it doesn't matter what you have...you always have the chance to bluff at a flop that missed everyone. If it's limped to you, you're going to complete any two cards on the SB because any two cards give you more of a chance to win the pot than folding.

I don't think you really want to get too excited about Q8 on an 8-4-2 flop. You're certainly going to have to let that go with any action from the two limpers, right? It's only a "good" flop relative to QQ4 because we're more likely to lose a big one when we're behind on a QQ4 flop. That leaves pretty much only Q8x as flops we're hoping to hit

I think live where your reading skills are so amazing, this is a profitable spot for you. I don't even doubt that you can make it work online, but I think in general this is bad advice to give. I think those of us that aren't one of the top poker players in the world would definitely show a loss in the long run not being pickier with which hands we play from the blinds.

I used to fold this quite regularly from the small blind, but having loosened up my game, I think I complete it more frequently these days. Certainly I think you need to have a lot of trust in the game against these opponents to do it. Acid, you're saying to avoid it because we're going to lose money when we're dominated...but I think we'll be able to avoid losing much money when we're in bad shape. I mean, this situation could just as easily be a board of QQ8r65 where we stack UTG limping with KQ.

On the end, I think I reluctantly call the river (assuming that I've got a default "no read"). I mean, I obviously hate it, cause it doesn't seem like there's much we beat, but I agree with the camp saying that we've completely underrepped our hand. UTG can be betting some pairs for value or as bluffs. It's probably not a good play, but it's possible. When the turn checks through, it really looks like no one has a queen to him.

As for those of you that suggest he's not playing AA/KK like this (in checking the flop), why wouldn't he? He's already decided to be sneaky by limping in the first place...so he could be going WA/WB (just like Daniel's doing) on the flop.

(I'm also disappointed that this got moved out of NL...can't we start a thread in 'Daniel On Strategy' where we link to other threads/sections on the forum?)

I agree with this.

You're obviously right about stacking KQ or AQ on the QQ856 board.

Let's just say that we make good decisions constantly and are never really stacking off or losing a ton of money where we shouldn't. Even if we lose just a couple of small bets (like this hand, calling the river or not) each time we play it and ARE dominated, I think that the number of singles that we give up with a hand like this is gonna pretty quickly outweight the homeruns that we are able to finally connect with.

I'm just being really picky here. If it were Q8s, I'd complete it. If it were Q9o, I'd complete it. For me, there are just enough gaps between the cards and not enough potential to play it. I guess some people can manage to play hands like this out of the SB, but I think for almost everyone else out there, folding preflop is the most +EV decision to make here.

Marchant - How do you advocate calling even though you admit that there's really nothing that we can beat? The 2.5-1 pot odds aren't great or anything if we're going to assume that the only thing we are going to win against is AA or KK that chose to value bet the river. I don't think that makes up 30% of his range.

I would have called.

I don't think UTG on a shortstack is playing a strong hand this way, i also think that there's a high chance he's betting the river with air given that lack of action on previous street. And if it's the guy i'm thinking off, or any shortstacker, there's a high chance he'll try and bluff DN out of a hand at the cost of $400.

Why are people discounting mid-low PPs from his range? He played this exactly how a lot of people would play 99-55.

The people have spoken!

Check calling the button with and a mid pair etc would make sense. But over calling with a mid pair is very unlikely imo. I think this hand plays out
exactly like a stronger hand would. The turn check with two others in the pot smells a lot more like better queen/ boat then it does AA, KK

This was my first thought given lack of action. I also think you have to lead on the turn.

I certainly see your point. If it's Q7o, I probably toss. So it's a very miniscule baby step. And, I don't disagree that for the vast majority of players (and even a lot of good players), it's the least -EV to dump it pre.

There are some things that we can beat (or tie) that have been noted...AA/KK, Q9s, middle pairs. If the action had gone down differently where we'd clearly repped our hand, then I think we could make a more informed decision. I don't get why y'all are so discounting the middle pairs. They're not "likely", but they're possible. UTG could've viewed the action on the flop as button taking a stab with air and Daniel calling with a 4. Once the turn checks through, he's making a 'value-bluff'.

I mean, I actually kind of like the way Daniel played it. In fact, I'm really roughly 50/50 on calling or folding this river. I think it's a close decision based on the factors I said. If we had something in the way of reads, I think we can sway the decision.

I still dont know how this isnt a call.

the turn is a big indicator that no one has anything. (or at least, this is how it would be viewed from an outsider)

DN checks the river. The shortstack, who realizes this is a small pot, that no one seems very interested in decides to make a large bet, but not too large so it doesnt look like a straight steal. and why not? If he missed completely and has no show down value he might think he needs to make a bet.

although i have no idea what he would call the flop with. except a pair or a Q... so...fold?

Who knows how shortstackers think?