So my computer is currently being repaired so I've pretty much been living on poker forums and CardRunners the past few days trying to improve my thinking about the game. I started to think about methods of improving my game, areas I felt were severe leaks of mine and I've come to a few conclusions. One of these conclusions is that I worry about my image a lot. Normally this is a good thing, but there are situations where I feel like I've been 3-betting a guy's button from the SB several times and that sooner or later he will start to play back at me. In the past, I would get a situation where this would happen a few times, then on the fourth or fifth time I'd get a hand like AQo or JJ, a hand that is certainly in my 3 betting range, but hands I would be unwilling to stack with facing resistance. I felt like I would certainly be played back at this time because I had been 3-betting the guy so much, and I was reluctant to play a big pot with these hands.

This got me thinking. If I were in the button's position and a regular was 3-betting me light, I would be planning to 4-bet light sooner or later. The first hand I were to 4-bet would likely not be AA-QQ/AK as I would expect my first 4-bet to be respected by the regular. Therefore I would probably smooth call the 3 bet with the top of my range and 4-bet with hands that really don't play well postflop (or at least hands I wouldn't normally look to play large preflop pots with). The thought process here is that I rarely expect my first 4 bet to generate more respect than usual and would expect the regular to fold anything but the very top of his 3 betting range.

Keeping this logic in mind, is it a plausible assumption that the first time most thinking regulars 4 bet after being 3 bet several times, they are raising significantly lighter than usual? Therefore it would be profitable for me to 5 bet shove a large part of my range (including AQ)? I know this assumes a lot, mainly that the person you are playing against is a decent, thinking player who would also have to know that I'm a solid thinking player as well. Therefore when I 3 bet AQ/JJ (or even hands significantly lighter than this) after 3 betting several other times in recent history, I should be planning on 5 bet shoving it?

It's fairly late at night for me and I've basically been studying poker theory all day and would just like some input on this thought.

If I'm hammering a guy I'm familiar with, I assume his first 4 bet will be lighter than normal. So, if I had a good enough hand to 3 bet with, I'll call and expect to get it all in if I hit top pair or don't see any overs to my PP. If I suspect he's 4 betting me light I won't shove because of the times he isn't light + he might be frustrated and be willing to go all the way with his AJ vs a hand from my 3 bet range that I'd be turning into a 5 bet bluff.

Even if he's not bluffing I assume I have some equity if I hit on the flop by calling the four bet and it creates a new metagame issue for him, which is that I'm obnoxious to make moves against so you might not want to bother.

This is the logic that lead me to this hand:

EDIT: Anyone know why the pot size got screwed up by the converter?

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $983.80
UTG+1: $1226.30
CO: $1369.74
Button: $492.70
Hero: $917.43
BB: $534.40

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with Q K
3 folds, Button raises to $12, Hero raises to $44, BB folds, Button raises to $188, Hero raises to $692, Button calls all-in $304.7.
Uncalled bets: $387.3 returned to Hero.

Flop: K Q 2 ($613.4, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $613.4)


Turn: 4 ($613.4, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $613.4)


River: 9 ($613.4, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $613.4)


Results:
Final pot: $613.4
Button Shows 10s 10h
Hero Shows Qh Ks

That guy hadn't successfully opened a button yet and so I figured he'd eventually 4-bet me light.

There's a CR video but I can't remember who it's by (CTS, I think) where he discusses anticipating what your opponent will do "the first time". Like, the first time he 4-bets you, will it be a bluff or will it be a monster? The first time he check-raises you? First time he threatens to kick your ass if you 3-bet him again? Are these bluffs or real hands?

I constantly think about that sort of thing with players that are in the steal positions since I come over the top of them frequently. I think there's merit to assuming that they'll get fed up and play back light, but a lot of players just don't have it in them to go back over you with nothing. One of the things I've been doing is checking the hand histories of the players I have a lot of data with that are sitting to my right and see what they've shown up with in the past in 3-bet and 4-bet pots.

I was reading this article on 3-bet pots yesterday which is very helpful.

What hands is the button going to be 4-bet folding to you shove though?

Say your stacks are 100, he raises on the button to 7, you re-raise from the SB/BB to 20, he makes it 50 to go and you shove, you've got almost no folding equity as he can call profitably with 25% equity in the hand(bearing in mind that his 4-bet is likely to be bigger than 50). Taking that in mind, he's going to be have to be 4-betting a lot of shitty hands to make it profitable for you, which i just don't think most players will have the balls to do.

I think the assumption that he'll flat with AA KK and AK is not correct aswell, i would fully expect him to but in 4-bets with AK and QQ (which is more combinations that AA and KK) which makes the EV of the play a lower.

Basicaly, you don't have much to any fold equity 5-bet shoving so to make it a profitable play he'll need to be 4-betting a LOT of crappy hands to make up for it, and i just can't see you 3-betting someone so much they 4-bet with A9 or something stupid.

If opening raise is to 7, then we'd need to assume the stacks are 200 (100 BBs). Shoving for 200 after he's 4bet gives some possible fold equity if he is 4betting very light.



Well not A9, but hands like 89s, TJs, QJo, hands they can easily fold to a 5 bet shove.

Eugh got my numbers all wrong there.

Still, how many regs would you think are capable of 4-betting QJo?

the higher you go in limits, the more frequent plays like this happen

I think that the frequency might not be that much higher (although it is higher) but the capabilities of your opponents to make this play is MUCH higher.

What Naismith wrote about the CR video telling you to anticipate what he's gonna do when he finally is fed up is really important. In one of the CR videos, P3achy_Keen is playing 10/20 sitting directly to the left of a regular. He says that he's a pretty good player and he's really not gonna mess with him. He then proceeds to 3 bet him in and out of position with any 2 reasonable cards. He does it at least 5 or 6 times in the 1 hour video and is never once played back at. Some players will let you hammer on them because they don't have the cards or the heart to come back over the top of you.

I don't RR as frequently as Naismith does, but I do it a lot. One thing that's super important that isn't talked about enough is game selection. At lower stakes, you have every conceivable game composition at your will. Don't play in a laggy game if it's gonna be hard for you to beat. For me, I hate getting RR'd. I want to be the one putting the last chip into the pot. It's not too hard to find tables where players just don't know how to combat that. After you pop someone for the 4th of 5th time, you'll see them folding in a position where they'd raise more often than not. Once you see this happening, be very weary if they don't give up after you 3 bet them since they probably were waiting for a monster to play back at you with. They fail to realize that while waiting for this monster, they folded 5 opening raises to your 3 bet and when they finally do 4 bet you, they're still in the red by a bet or two.

This seemed really rambling.

Cliffs notes: Game select and know your opponents. Unless you're a total maniac (Naismith) then the 1st time they 4 bet you, unless YOU have a monster, just err on the safe side and let them have that pot.

I did it about 30 minutes ago to a chronic bluffer who three bets light a lot. It was also the first pot I opened in 10 minutes (was card dead).

Haha, good to see it worked.

Like Roberts said i think Snamuh's thinking is probably dead on at higher levels, but below 400NL i think it'd be better to err on the side of caution(Bearing in mind i have no experience at 1/2 and higher, just from reading 2+2 there seems to be a marked increase in aggression at 2/4)

I agree that most players will 4bet lightly after you have been hammering them.

However, I would be wary of such assumption if you are dealing with a really good player, who is probably expecting you to think he is steaming the first time he 4bets you.

I think you may be overestimating how much these players are adjusting. Alot of these players, even players that are decent, will not play back at you without a hand. Their mindset will often be "one of these times Im gonna pick up AA and destroy this guy" instead of thinking that the next time you 3-bet them they are gonna 4-bet with a suited connector or something.