Bubba83
Monday, December 31st, 2007, 2:22 AM
QUOTE (Zach6668 @ Monday, December 31st, 2007, 12:13 AM)

No, that's fine.
What do you suggest as an alternative line?
I mean, we're never folding our set, right?
If we check, we risk him taking a free one off with a lone diamond. If we bet, we get to protect our hand from those one card draws, and give him a chance to make a mistake.
Do you have any other ideas?
(I dunno how this is coming off, but it's not meant to be hostile in any way. I've been in a pissy mood all day tho, so it may come through in my posting.)
You're not coming off hostile to me, I am always afraid I come off hostile when I get so involved in these strat hands as well, but I personally feed on the arguments and they make me think in many different ways... Unless someone makes something personal it's all just strategy as far as I am concerned.
I'm not really suggesting an alternate way to play the turn, I am just saying it can be problematic if we donk-bet the flop and then a situation like that happens where we pretty much have to shove into a possible flush which kinda sucks.
I guess it's the main reason why I like a check/raise all in line on the flop as opposed to donk-bet. My read was he wouldn't check behind even if his hand completely missed, so I checked in the actual play of this hand. Button bet $30 (tiny I know) MP2 calls (awesome, our check trapped him in there!) and I raised all-in. Button thinks for a minute and folds, MP2 thinks for like 2 minutes and finally says he can't lay it down and calls with A

K

. Turn 10

, River 4

I rake the large pot, button later claims he folded A

Q

Obviously this situation turned out favorably for me, which is why I posted the hand because I wanted to see if I was off-base with my check-raise all in line.
Here's my case for the check/raise all in line:
Let's say we have a read on our villain that he will only check behind here like 20% of the time, which quite honestly I think is high for this particular villain. If there is a flush draw out, our villain with the flush draw can't hit the K

so he has 8 outs on the turn out of a possible 47 cards giving him a 17% chance to pull ahead. That's a parlay of two things that need to happen for us to be behind after the turn, and that parlay will only happen 3.4% of the time. In addition to that, we don't even know if anyone has the flush draw in the first place!
Suppose the button surprises me by checking the flop. If a non diamond turn comes, our line is going to be pretty obvious from here on out, so let's suppose the 17% chance diamond that isn't the K

comes. We've kept the pot a lot smaller now than if we had donked the flop, and can quite possibly A ) Get away from the hand or B ) Limit our losses if a guy hit a flush and bets small or C ) Catch an opponent bluffing on perceived weakness.
Have I made a strong enough case for a check/raise all-in line on the flop? If you don't think so, please tell me why and make sure to counter the points I have just presented.