Zach6668
Sunday, December 30th, 2007, 8:14 PM
QUOTE (Royal_Tour @ Sunday, December 30th, 2007, 11:04 PM)

ya, I understand exactly what you`re saying. There isnt really a debate here. I`m just saying that you should never run it twice if you`re ahead.
if you`re a flip for stacks and you agree to run it twice. thats fine. chances are you get your stack back.
Yeah, I see what you're saying, but saying that you shouldn't run it more than once simply because you're ahead is pretty meaningless. I mean, it doesn't affect our EV no matter what, so it just seems to be an arbitrary point that you picked, and in reality it is. In the end though, that's all anyone can pick, as it doesn't affect anything. So, run it twice or 100 times at your own personal liking.
===============
An example, to clear it up for anyone else.
Say you get to the river in an HU hand, and get all in vs KK. We have AA.
Board is completely random, like 248J, where he only has 2 kings in the deck. There will be 44 cards left in the deck. To simplify, we are playing a game where we don't burn any cards (otherwise you can't express this the same way, I can explain in a minute).
Say you run the river 44 times. 2 cards win for him, 42 for us. We run out every card in the deck, and chop the pot, 1/44 for each run you win. KK is going to win 2/44 no matter what, while AA wins 42/44 times. 2/44 = 4.545454%, which is the exact equity KK has when running it once.
The effect of the burn cards only means you can't run out exact equities on the one particular hand, but since the burn cards are random and unknown, over the long run, the don't matter.