My poker tracker datamined stats tell me that our villain runs 25/20/3.5 through about 500 hands. This is really early in the session, maybe the 20th hand or so.

I had NOT been active at all. First hand I sat, I re-raised preflop and bet the flop when my AQ flopped the nut and second nut overs to the 9-high board. The second hand, I completed the SB with 88 and took a nice pot. Fourth hand, I raised and was re-raised and folded. I raised one more hand. Hmmm. Okay, just found two more.

Ignore what I said about not being active. By this hand, the 20th hand or so, I had re-raised, won a decent pot with 88, raised five more hands including one where I got re-raised and folded. I don't think I'd played with the villain before, but I'm not 100 percent certain.


No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $330.30
CO: $482
Button: $841.90
SB: $855.80
Hero: $929

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with 9 J
2 folds, Button raises to $16, SB folds, Hero raises to $48, Button calls.

Flop: 8 4 9 ($98, 2 players)
Hero bets...?

What's our line? What's our plan if we bet and he calls?

Open fold or open shove.


Let me read the OP now.

Bet/3bet flop? C/R flop, lead turn? I think I like C/R and lead turn more. If he calls your 3bet on the flop then you have to put in a turn bet too, and that would suck.

What do you feel his range is for calling your preflop raise with? Will he ever flat call with TT+ here?

Sometimes I c/r this flop if they're really aggro because it really shuts them down a lot more and it makes it harder for them to float you and stuff. I'd mix that in about 20% of the time (provided villain is aggro enough to stab at it) and just lead out the other 80%.

The only real information I have on him is from datamining and I'm still not very good at using that information. Are there any stats I should be looking at for this specific situation?

If you have a meaningful sample, their bb/100 is useful to see if they're actually winning or not. I mean, mostly datamining just gives you a rough idea of what they're gonna do.

I dont' know how it plays out on sites where you can start with 200BBs, but msotly with 100BB stacks, if you 3 bet from the blinds and are called, the player in position almost always has something like a middle pair or 2 big cards. This flop isn't going to help many of those hands, but you will get floated by middle pairs a lot. That's kind of why I like the c/r because it really helps define their hand more since it gets a bet out of the middle pairs or big cards and then defines their hand.

is this being played at seminole?

C/R is very interesting. I'll bet/double barrel a lot here, I'll make it 75 on the flop at least, if he calls, 175-200 on the turn. I'm probably done on the flop if he raises depending ont he size of the raise

Yes.

Jay has set up an intricate system to datamine PokerTracker stats from the B&M. It's groundbreaking, really.

No, this is online. Seminole is the worst play on earth.

I always spew in these situations. I stack off and villain can't see that his TT cannot ever be good. Well, apart from this time.

I vote bet/call, check/raise. If he checks back on the turn fire big on the river.

As I say, I stack off way too often here repping AA. It's why I play PLO now - I have the hands I rep more often.

And if you don't, you're not really a big dog.

Meh, not if you turn AKKQ into a total bluff on an 892r flop against a guy you know has AAxx for a 5 buyin pot. I can still spew real good in omaha.

More seriously, this hand helps a ton if you have reads on his play. Against an unknown I would assume his range includes some good suited connectors, most pairs to JJ and maybe AK/AQ/KQ.

With a read I wouldn't mind c/c flop and lead turn or something goofy like that.

Absent reads I quite like the idea of a checkraise, even though you are turning your hand into a value bluff (you're probably better doing this with AK or KQ than with J9). Are you bluffing TT? Getting value from T9?

Standard is to bet/fold $80, and bet/fold $180 on most turns. I don't think you'll lose too much overall by doing that compared to any other line.

Just bet and try to get it in.

Look at y'all getting all fancy with check-raises...s'an interesting idea, and I don't hate it. Playing more straight-forward, I bet $65-80 here, though part of that's going to depend on whether villain is going to view particular bet-sizes as weak. If I can "trust" his raises, I probably let it go on the flop. My line on the turn depends on the card and whether villain needs to see two barrels to make decisions.