I got myself into a really tough spot in this hand. The last 3 hands me and the chipleader had been together in every pot. 2 Hands ago i reraised him preflop when he was on the button and i had the SB and i knew he was stealing. Also the last hand we had been together in a pot. I only recently decided to get involved with him and was going to use my position on him to the max. He was playing about every 1 in 2-3 hands so was hyperaggressive. Rest of the table seemed fairly tight though the shortstack had been shoving allin quite a bit even though he wasn't that short.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t400/t800
(Ante: t75)
5 players
Converter

Seat 1: mirage1970 (20590 in chips) (Button)
Seat 3: DATA13 (20814 in chips) (SB)
Seat 4: blizzard788 (16105 in chips) (BB)
Seat 5: Kaylis420 (61798 in chips) (UTG)
Seat 6: E-Cart6 (21611 in chips) (CO)

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with
UTG raises to t2100,

Normally i'd just call here, but because this guy was hyperaggressive playing almost 50% of his hands i decided to reraise. We were 5-handed aswell so TT is a pretty good hand in this situation.

Hero raises to t6100, Button raises all-in t20515, 3 folds,

So now some1 reraises allin. He had been fairly tight, but he hadn't gotten a chance to get into pots anyway with the hyperaggressive chipleader and me playing back at the chipleader. I definately thought he could have an overpair here and i had to think really long, but he'd definately make this move with AK, and being 5-handed and the 2 of us being so aggressive it's definately likely he'd do it with AQ, maybe maybe even AJ/99. So i did some calculations here.

In 10% of the cases he'll be bluffing, even though i don't consider people in a 4.40 capable of a squeeze play here, he could have 99 in 10% of the cases.
10% x 0.8 = 8%
In 60% he'll have an overpair, i think a lot less here, but this is a worst case scenarion.
60% x 0.2 = 12%
In 30% he'll have 2 overcards, though i think this % will be much higher.
30% x 0.5 = 15%
Gives me a grand total of 35% chance to win this hand. With a little better than 2 to 1 odds on my money i should call this. Add to this the chance the UTG was holding an A aswell so he'd have less outs if he has 2 overcards and i think he'll show up with overcards much more often than in these calculations... call, right?

Hero calls t14415 (pot was t30290).

Flop: (t44705, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t44705)


Turn: (t44705, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t44705)


River: (t44705, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t44705)


Results:
Final pot: t44705
Hero showed Td Th
Button showed AA




Was i just unlucky here that the button picked up a sick hand or was my call based on the calculations correct?
Also had i called and won, the chance i'd have been able to take this 4.40 down with such an ammount of chips would've been huge.

I think his range is a lot tighter then you are giving him credit for Id say AA,KK,QQ,AK and maybe JJ. Also in a 4.40 I wouldnt expect a player in that spot to ever be bluffing. Pretty easy fold

Very good breakdown of the hand IMO..You made a read on the initial raiser and acted accordingly...I like..Then you put button on a range, which I think is fairly accurate...He can show up with AK/AQ a lot here because most 4.40 players aren't folding these hands, esp 5. handed. After doing the pot odds you are getting 2.1:1, which means you need 32% equity in the hand.. According to the range we gave him, I'd say its about a break even call in terms of EV, and since 4.40s are so top heavy, I think this makes us lean towards calling even more so..NH

In the future, I think its best to just not post results at all at the start, even if they are in white..Just my opinion

Ok i'll stop doing it from now on then and post it after a day or so.
I just sometimes hate not to know what happened and people rarely post results later on.

I like the re-raise PF, really not certain whether to call the all in or not though.

I can see putting AK in his range, but I have a hard time believing many players would come over the top of a UTG raise and CO reraise with anything worse than that. How much does the calculation change if you remove AQ and AJ from the range? I don't play the $4.40's, but the guy is nowhere near shortstacked enough to be making this move with a wide-ish range.

Well he is just saying overcards make up about 30 percent of his range, so that consists of AK, AQ, AJ..I don't think you see AQ here a lot, but you do see AK..Maybe we should lower the high card percentage to 20 percent and the overpair to 70 percent.

Which would give us

10% x 0.8 = 8%
In 60% he'll have an overpair, i think a lot less here, but this is a worst case scenarion.
70% x 0.2 = 14%
In 30% he'll have 2 overcards, though i think this % will be much higher.
20% x 0.5 = 10%

an equity of 32%...Exactly break even

Still a call with a top heavy structure

AQ definately if you read the history.

It was 5-handed and the last 3 hands the chipleader(UTG) and i had been together in every single pot. The chipleader had already been playing 50% of his hands nearly(hyperaggro) and i reraised him preflop 2 hands earlier aswell. So considering all this i definately think he'd do the same with AQ, possibly AJ, but AQ for sure.

Snap call the reraise. You're just too committed.