Bodog 1/2 9-max Seat

BB is 19/9
Hijack is 24/8.

Stacks
Effective stacks of $200 ish.

Preflop
2 folds. Hero raises to 5 with T 8 . //I'm in EP stealin' ur blinds. Or something. Maybe getting a little frisky here.
Hijack calls $5.00. 2 folds. Big blind raises to $16.00
Hero calls $11.00 //I can fade a reraise here. I credit my small opener.
Hijack calls $11.00

Flop ($49)
8 7 2
Big blind bets $18.00 //This is a pretty weak lead into this board.
Hero calls $18.00. //I think I might have the best hand, plus the opportunity to represent a variety of things on later streets.
Hijack calls $18.00 //Crap. That's bad.

Turn ($103)
J

Big blind checks. Hero ??? //I figure the PFR whiffed but the hijack is on hearts.

Awkward spot. I prefer a flop raise of the weak lead. It's likely the HJ has hearts but what heart combinations fit into his range? AhJh, QhJh, KhJh all probably fit into his range. ThJh/9hJh would probably raise the flop. 9Ts is also a possibility? Problem is, if you fire 65-75 here and he has a J, straight, or heart draw, he'll be calling with position to shove any river. Are you going to be able to call a river shove U/I? I probably just C/F.

i think this is sort of close

here's the range that we're likely up against

KQh, A6-A2h --> 6 combos, 70% equity against, which are probably folding to a $70 bet
AhQh --> 65% equity against, again probably folding to a bet
AJh,ATh,A9h,KJh,QJh --> 5 combos, 37% equity against, which are likely to either call or raise
Ts9s,Td9d --> obvious

Other heart draw hands are probably playing faster on the flop.

So you're likely up against 7 hands that are folding, and 7 that are calling/raising. Betting $70 would require us to fold villains about 40% of the time. The hand combos justify it, but it's close enough where I probably would just let this go because we can't be sure villain won't chase with heart draws he should be folding, and combined with the part of his range that he could easily just flat call with, it makes a potential river such a mess as to be -EV.

Preflop seems kind of ambitious, even for me.

I also prefer a raise of his weak flop bet, especially to define the player's hand behind us. You can get away with raising to as little as $50 becuase that should fold out any UI overcards and it puts pressure on the button.

I am not betting this turn very often at all here. I'll check and see how much and how quickly the button bets do decide whether I want to c/f, c/c or crai.

I don't think you can bet hard enough to move anyone off their hand without committing yourself to a terrible holding. You might be ahead of one villain here, but not two. I check muck and take my medicine.

So, I should wait for a better spot?

You optimistically put the hijack on hearts and optimistically put the BB on a whiff. That's all pretty optimistic. Again, you can't bet enough to bet them off their hands without shoving and finding yourself drawing to a nine. There are "better spots" for you to put your chips in play.

David:

"You can't bet enough to bet them off their hands."

Discuss. I don't know how to approach this one yet.

I think the HJ's range is wider here, but I think we can pretty confidently put the BB on a whiff or at least a hand like 99 that doesn't wanna get too invested.

I just hate betting the turn here becuase your line doesn't look very credible at all for a very big hand and if either of the other players pick up on that, you're gonna have some problems. I just am pretty sure that you'd never play a set in this manner (flatcalling that weak flop lead with 3 players in the pot), but I guess your opponents might not know this.

I really think your best option is to check and see what develops.

mtdesmoines - I don't think we're trying to turn our hand into a bluff here. We aren't trying to bet anyone off their hands.

I think there's a lot of evidence that the BB hates his hand here. He makes a token c-bet on a coordinated board and then checks the turn.

It's possible that I'm crushed by a set or a T9, but I'm mostly going to have 7-9 outs here, imho.

I tend to check behind in spots like this where I am really not sure where I am in the hand.

I am either wa/wb but I have some draws to a disguised nut hand. Take the free card.

What are we trying to accomplish? We're stuck in a pot raised twice with two other villains who subsequently called a flop bet. We have second pair, no kicker, a thin draw and a coordinating board and we don't really have position. That fishy smell is coming from us.

There are a lot of pretty good hands (e.g., A 2 , K Q , 5 6 ) that I can bet for value against. I'd love for any of these hands to fold, I profit when they call, but I hate for them to get a free river.

I guess I don't believe this is a terrible holding.

What are we trying to accomplish?

We want to gain value from worse hands, and put in a minimal amount of money when we are behind, and/or draw profitably. That's poker.

I just don't understand "You can't bet enough to bet them off their hands". That means you're thinking about turning a hand with some showdown value into a bluff. That's just not smart poker, usually. I just want to know where you're coming from with such a weird statement in this particular hand.

I don't think I have any nut outs.

It's a matter of whether or not we're in a +EV situation or not. There is a very good chane that our 2nd pair, no kicker is the best hand here. If it is, we'd like to figure out how to get to showdown with it and get any value that we can along the way.

mtdesmoines - have you ever played a significant amount of limit hold'em, or studied that game extensively?

It doesn't look like T9?

I guess I'm not sure I agree we have showdown value.

You think we are behind 100% of the time, and drawing dead?

Explain why you ask.

To them - Are you ever raising T9 up front? I guess that it could be in your range, but I wouldn't often assume it is if I'm one of the other players because I'd imagine that they've never seen you raise a hand like that up front. Am I assuming too much here from your previous play/posts?

I'm just curious because I think LHE really helps build the fundamentals of poker theory that I find that you've often mixed up in your posts.

We are almost certainly ahead of the BB at this point and the player behind us has a range that includes a lot of draws. As long as he doesn't have the Jh, I think we're gonna have the best hand a lot more often than you'd think.

This is a joke, by the way. Ha, ha and shit.

I laughed.

Absolutely not. Second pair no kicker with a PF raise and re-raise is rarely ahead at the turn with three people in the hand, though. I'm just saying you have to put both villains on ... say ... AQ and AK to logically be ahead in the hand on the turn. And we want to be ahead when putting money in, right?



Let me see if I get it. I think you want to advocate a bet here, and I think you want it to be around $40, right?



We're really getting lost in this hand. I can see you saying nobody has a J, but are you also thinking that nobody has a decent pp here? What cards are we check/folding on the river? Hearts? T? Overs? That's a TON of possible river cards.
Maybe you guys dodge outs/scare cards better than I ever have.

Yah. Did you see me put it in quotes for you in my reply?

No. I'm not focusing so much on this particular hand as the reasoning and theory behind potential decisions.

It's pretty easy to put these villains on ranges where our equity is pretty good.

BB could have something like 99-AA, AK, AQs, or even just some random squeeze cards that missed.

Hijack seems pretty bad, and could easily have high cards, KQ, AQ, ATs, and be peeling the flop because the price is right, or he could, more likely, have a draw, maybe some sort of suited connectors, or random hearts.

I honestly think you see monsters under the bed a lot. This one is a lot closer than others, but sometimes you just assign ranges that are only hands that we're behind to. It just seems you're very pessimistic in assigning ranges, and that's why it comes off as if you're a massive nit.

Bodog 1/2 9-max Seat

BB is 19/9
Hijack is 24/8.

Stacks
Effective stacks of $200 ish.

Preflop
2 folds. Hero raises to 5 with T 8 . //I'm in EP stealin' ur blinds. Or something. Maybe getting a little frisky here.
Hijack calls $5.00. 2 folds. Big blind raises to $16.00
Hero calls $11.00 //I can fade a reraise here. I credit my small opener.
Hijack calls $11.00

Flop ($49)
8 7 2
Big blind bets $18.00 //This is a pretty weak lead into this board.
Hero calls $18.00. //I think I might have the best hand, plus the opportunity to represent a variety of things on later streets.
Hijack calls $18.00 //Crap. That's bad.

Turn ($103)
J

Big blind checks. Hero bets 103. Hijack pushes for 163.. //Crap. That's also bad.
Big blind folds. Hero ??

I was gonna say, that HJ could have a T9s type hand here, as well as the heart draw hands.

Getting 6.15-1 here, we're in a tough spot, and probably worth a call, as he could have just decided he's chasing his hearts no matter what, so he might as well put it in.

On the other hand, I think if we do decide to bet this turn, I'm not sure how much I like our bet sizing, as it doesn't really give us a chance to get away from this hand. If I were to bet, it'd be around 2/3 of the pot, more likely.

OK.

You think overpairs and sets behind us should have raised the flop bet.

You believe that if the BB was going to bet-raise his set on the flop, he would have opened the turn hard.

Together, this evidence tells you that both hands are drawing and that we are ahead with our eights and we need to bet for value.

No. But it tells me that we certainly have at least some showdown value, and a hand that is potentially worth trying to protect.

The actions of the hand all but eliminate the BB as a consideration. We'll count him as having AK/AQ type hands that are basically done with the hand. We're down to 1 opponent. This opponent called a preflop raise, then it got reraised and called and he called that too. Most players are gonna show up with speculative hands here like suited connectors, suited aces and small-medium pocket pairs. Of that range, we're really only losing to any suited connected hearts with the Jh, 78 and a set of 8s or 7s or the bottom set (too lazy to look at what the bottom card is). He could have 99 here too I guess since I'd probably play 99 like this.

The point is that this one player, who we should assume is probably our only opposition left in the hand, has a range which I think we're in good shape against. Maybe someone can pokerstove this.

We don't put both villains on AK/AQ becuase that doesn't make sense. But just because it's a reraised pot and there are 3 people in on the turn, doesn't mean our hand is in bad shape here given the action so far.

Also, if I was worried about the PFR at all, it'd be him having JJ. But I'm just gonna worry about him.

I really don't like your bet at all here. Zach already pointed out that it gives no wiggle room really. I think we have 4 outs a lot here. I just feel disgusted with myself and convince myself that he's pushing A9hh or AThh here becuase he decided he wasn't folding his flush draw no matter what and then I call.

Just quickly, I may have missed some hands in his range, or added a few too many:

I don't think there are many options left.

mtdesmoines can indeed feel at least a little vindicated. I put my money in bad here, obviously.

[x] Fold preflop. Your hand isn't worth the cost to play out of position.
[ ] Raise more preflop. You have to consider implied odds.
[ ] Get all in.
[ ] Bet more on the flop.s one as well.[/i]
[ ] Call. When villains give you a good price to draw to the nuts in p
[x] Fold. You're either way way behind or slightly ahead.
[x] Call as played. You're pot-committed against his range.
[ ] Don't bet or raise. Hands that you beat fold and hands that are ahead profit.
[ ] You can't beat what he's representing. Fold.
[ ] The amount you have contributed to the pot is irrelevant. It's a sunk cost.
[ ] Look out! He has a gun!
[ ] There's not waiting for a better spot in a cash game. The better spot will be there regardless of what you do in this spot. If you're afraid of going broke, then you're in too big of a game.
[ ] Hands must constantly be re-evaluated. Just because you paid for a draw doesn't mean you have to pay off a hand that beats you.

Thanks.

Some days, I feel like I take a beating in this forum.

Please tell us all now that villain was on a naked heart draw, bricked, and you won.

I think he would've raised the flop with two-pair or better or 9 T . I think he has the nut flush draw and two overs more than these other hands.

Villain had A J , which is a 84/16 favorite. I hit an offsuit T for the win. He went on tilt, started playing every hand against me, shoved a good draw and got there to get it back.

I think I put him on the right sort of hand, so I feel good about that. I think against his range the turn bet gets me good value, imho. Fold preflop though. Just too cute.

I think the range is very reasonable. Maybe a tad bit wide, but it gives us a good idea.

FYP

Nice hand