Bodog 3/6 NLHE (9-handed)

MP3 $696
Cobalt $568
Button $109
Evelyn Ng $609
BB $489

Cobalt is CO w/ A K . I've been playing fairly TAG. MP3 just got to the table like 6 hands ago, so no reads there. Button is a tad donkish. Evelyn has been playing a bit weak-tightish. BB is a donk.

Pre-flop:
4 folds, MP3 raises to $24, Cobalt calls, Button calls, 2 folds

Flop ($81): 2 5 4 (3 players)
MP3 bets $60, Cobalt calls, Button goes all-in for $85, MP3 calls, Cobalt calls

Turn ($336): 7 (2 players)
MP3 bets $150, Cobalt folds


Little awkward but might be standard. Talk to me.

You're a better player than I am but it looks standard. I doubt MP3 is value betting the Qh here.

I think I call the turn here sometimes. I'd fold to another bet, but it's pretty hard for him to give up on QQ with Qh or a decent overpair with a heart the way this has played out.

I'd probably call and fold to a river bet. I think your hand is kind of underrepped? I don't know. What would you do with 2 back Jacks or Queens here.

I don't hate it but I don't love it either. Def not standard.

Awkwardish blocking bet? I dunno. I don't have a problem with the fold, but I just think that you can be winning here a decent amount of the time.

agree.

also, any reason for the smooth call preflop?

I don't see the point in folding here. I mean what card did you want to hit when you called the flop?

Completely irrelevant.

If he hit a non-nut draw, and the action goes as such, that we put someone on the nut hand, we don't have to call with the second nuts.

Not saying that is particularly the case here, but it may be.

I think only reason to believe you're behind here is that villain holds AhAx.

Seriously? This could be any number of AhXx hands.

i don't see how we can fold here by automatically putting MP3 on Ah. This is a clear call imo. JhJ, QhQ, QhA, ThT, AhA, AhK, AhQ, JhAh, JhA, is my range now someone can pokerstove that and add any other hands they think are in villians range. His bet size is tough to deciphyer being that we have no reads.

Looks like a sick value bet on the river there. I might be inclined to fold too but you're only getting slightly less than 2 to 1 on your money on the river.

This was a well disguised brag post to say you were playing with Evelyn

I agree with Acid, I like calling the turn (without reads) and folding to a river bet. Why no preflop reraise?

So if you call and river is x and villian leads for x you fold? That can't be right. QQh can fire again. Also what if we call the turn and the river is x and it is checked to us, instacheckbehind?

I'm not saying that I'm automatically folding, but if I'm gonna call with this hand on the river, then what can he have? I have the 2nd nut flush and I could have the nut flush (unless he has it of course) so how on earth is he gonna value bet QhQx on the river? Really, the only way for him to know that we're not slowplaying the nuts (which we would likely flat call with in position assuming that like 95% of the time he's drawing dead) is if he has it himself.

I just don't really like the turn fold becuase there's so much of his range which he still needs to keep the lead with here and our hand is pretty under-repped.

Um, the Ace of hearts.



I agree with Acid, I'm really not for folding instantly. I probably would end up folding after I think about it a bit, but I'd put some serious thought into it.

Villain flopped the straight flush and the other guy had the Ah. NH.

Let me clarify a bit...this wasn't an insta-fold...this was a "take most of my time bank before folding" fold.




I'll mostly chalk it up to mixing up my play. When in position, I'll sometimes call here with AK...as well as a fairly wide range of other hands. I'd be more likely to re-raise it if I didn't have that position. Also, since I don't have much info on the guy and he's made a somewhat non-standard 4xOR, I'm inclined to play a little more carefully until I know what that means...and how he plays. On the whole, I'm taking a re-raise/call mix of 75/25 in similar spots.

I call.

We actually might be losing the main and winning the side.

This is relatively unimportant since we are primarily concerned with the player betting, who still has chips and it's his hand we're worried about. The other guy's range is HUGE while the villain who is betting has a much tighter range.

I'm not convinced. When the button shoves everything over the two previous bets on the all-heart flop, I can almost guarantee he has the Ah. So the main is lost. When MP3 probes the turn, he's giving us the opportunity to get paid on the hand we drew to. If we weren't going to see this hand through and try to make money on it, we should have folded the flop.

How do you assume their exact cards? The button's shoving range is HUGE. What is he doing with 2 black tens and a short stack? What's he doing with AxQh? What's he doing with a set? What's he doing with any overpair? He could have the Ah and he could have at least a dozen other hands. I mean, wtf dude. Zach is right about your posts because I'm sitting at work and you put me on tilt.

The fold that Cobalt made here is made more acceptable because of the main fact that if MP3 doesn't have the Ah, he's bluffing at a dry side pot when it's very likely that either Cobalt or the all in player actually has the Ah. His bet is a lot strong than it looks for a lot of reasons. I still contend that he's making this bet with any decent overpair that has a heart in it simply because it's so much better than a c/c or a c/f or something by giving up the lead in the hand.

As far as the main pot's concerned, we don't really care. Either one of the two of them has the Ah and we're losing (the main pot or the main and side pots) or they don't have it and are likely drawing dead.

I really want you to explain to me how it's any more likely that the all in player has the Ah and not MP3 who's still betting. I think it's way more likely that MP3 would have it as opposed to the AI player because he's still showing strength in this hand and the Qh isn't really a hand that would be that strong.

I reread my post and decided that I like your fold a lot more for this reason alone. It's just that with 3 people in this pot, 1 of you usually has the Ah. Since there's an all in player and no side pot, the Ah is really the most likely card for him to bet the turn with because anything else seems to be wasting money. I guess I like the fold more now, but I'd still call and re-evaluate the river if I were actually playing in real time.

I'm really not sure about this one and every post i read seems to swing me another way.

One point i'd like to make though is, if you call here and the turn bettor checks on the river, we can assume he doesn't have the Ah right? But from the way he's played the hand, he's still probably going to call a value bet on the river?

This leans my decision more towards calling here and folding to a river bet/betting if he checks.

First:

Then...

and...


Anyway.



Button went from a $24 call to an $85 shove against two strong PF hands. He's not doing this with garbage. He CAN FOLD a ton of hands here.



I like your posts and I like you except when you behave this specific way. It's a disagreement. Frankly I don't care what "you and zach" think but I suppose that everyone else gets tired of hearing what "you and zach" think about my posts. Don't start the backhanded flaming, you'll ruin the forum. You post and you let zach post and stop talking about me like a couple school girls, OK?



Get to the PF action ... MP3 raised 4xBB PF and made a 3/4 pot bet OOP on a coordinated flop. To me, that means strength, probably a pocket pair, like AA, KK, QQ, even JJ, probably with one of them being a heart. Cobalt tells us the button is a tad donkish. He could show up with a very wide range of hands, including suited connectors. He re-raises from button with AA, AK, KK, QQ, playing short. I really think the button has some kind of suited connector and flopped the flush or is playing AhJx, or something and hoped to find the nuts. Why else would you mix it up with the big stacks on a flop getting action?

OK, so we get the heart on the turn, and MP3 knows we're interested. I think MP3 is probing with this $150. It's a half-pot bet and really doesn't commit our hero or him.

I'm willing to bet that if Cobalt had called the turn, MP3 would have checked the river through.

The cool thing is that, since we had an all-in, we do know the holdings.

Ok, I'll close out my comments here with these:

I'm not sure what you're talking about with Zach. You think we are talking about you behind your back or something? No. I made that comment becuase he had made that comment in response to one of your posts in another thread. I read the text that I responded to there and I was basically like ";alksjdc;asueioruasdkclajsdf HOW CAN HE "ALMOST GUARANTEE THAT HE'S GOT THE Ah?????????? sdal;fkjs;aldkf;jkasdfk" And then proceeded to tilt off imaginary mobnies in my head since I'm not playing poker right now.

I have nothing against you whatsoever. I just really don't like (and I think it's bad for the forum too) when you start talking with way more certainty than you can ever have in a hand of poker about specifics. You must assign hand ranges. If you want to include the Ah in his range, even as a large part of it, that's fine, but he has a RANGE that he's playing here. So does Cobalt and so does MP3.

I think you're just making too many assumptions in your post. It's good that you go through the exercise of assigning possible hands and then narrowing them down based on actions and everything, but you can't really interpret too much from "a tad donkish" since it's so vague and you have no examples of his play. You also go on to say that the button shoves desipite preflop action, so he shouldn't have a hand like 99 or TT here, yet if he's a donk, wouldn't he possibly play those hands? You expect a bad player to fold an overpair? Is he bad passive and a total station? Is he bad becuase he's constantly bluffing and making ridiculous plays? We don't know and therefore, you probably shouldn't assume to know based on very limited info in the OP.

Also, MP3's bet on the turn is obviously some kind of probe/blocker or a value bet. We can agree on that. What makes you so sure it's not the value bet? I'm not sure either way. I have my opinions which I stated here, but I don't think that's easy to tell either.

Anyway. I get frustrated when you say "the button has the Ah" when it's not based on anything other than your total guess. It's equally (if not more) likely that MP3 has the Ah since he's continuting to bet into a very scary board and a dry side pot when he's OOP. But I don't know. I've said that playing the hand in real time, I'm gonna call the turn in Cobalt's shoes, but analyzing the hand after the fact, I think his fold is best.

Please just don't assume so much.

Fair enough.

I do assume a lot about the hand, but we have probably what should be the second nuts. I'll ignore the possibility of one villain having the Sf and the other having the A high flush.

It's all possible, but I'm willing to gamble the $150 on the turn.

Yeah, obv we're not worried about the straight flush. I already said that I'd call the turn when I was playing, but after thinking about the hand, it's probably best to fold like Cobalt did.

I think I'd call here and fold to a river shove. I'm calling anything less than a 3/4 pot bet on the riv.

Did you inspect villian on the flop or turn to see if he re-checked his hole cards for a heart?















sw obv.

why is this sw?

Did you inspect villian on the flop or turn to see if he re-checked his hole cards for a heart?

Because OP isnt playing live.

LOL oops

You two are like Felix and Oscar, it's rather funny.

Now that all interest in the hand is gone...

Button had ThTc. MP3 had AhAc.

As I sat there pondering his bet on the turn, I just couldn't imagine how he could bet there without the Ah. The side pot's dry...so there's very little "value" in him betting without it. If he doesn't have it, then one of the two of us is likely to have it...and since I don't...he probably does. I disagree that villain should bet here with Qh/Jh. I think he's better off trying to c/c down with those.

Also, just to reiterate to those espousing, "You hit your draw, go with it!" Hands must constantly be re-evaluated. On the flop, I didn't feel I had enough info to throw my hand away. By the turn, the picture's much clearer despite my improvement.

I think you're way better than I am and you probably played this hand as best as can be played without being results oriented. I think the information you gained on the turn makes it pretty clear you're up against Ah.

I'd end up shouting the f word, slamming my laptop lid down, getting a drink, and when I get back find out my all-in protection kicked in because I play on Ultimate Bet.

The last part should just be stickied forever. People forget reevaluate their reads on subsequent streets more than studio exec's forget that Will Smith has never played a good movie role.

Oh what's this? Will Smith is in I Am Legend? You had me at Will Smith.

[ ] Fold preflop. Your hand isn't worth the cost to play out of position.
[ ] Raise more preflop. You have to consider implied odds.
[ ] Get all in.
[ ] Bet more on the flop.
[ ] Fold. You're either way way behind or slightly ahead.
[ ] Call. When villains give you a good price to draw to the nuts in position, accept their offer.
[ ] Call as played. You're pot-committed against his range.
[ ] Don't bet or raise. Hands that you beat fold and hands that are ahead profit.
[ ] You can't beat what he's representing. Fold.
[ ] The amount you have contributed to the pot is irrelevant. It's a sunk cost.
[ ] Look out! He has a gun!
[ ] There's not waiting for a better spot in a cash game. The better spot will be there regardless of what you do in this spot. If you're afraid of going broke, then you're in too big of a game.
[x] Hands must constantly be re-evaluated. Just because you paid for a draw doesn't mean you have to pay off a hand that beats you.

FTW.

There are definite exceptions to this.

Not if you are properly rolled.

But who ever is?

Interested in your explanation on that one, Simo.

Such as . . . ?

I don't like pushing around 50.1% equity edges because no one has that tight a read on random villains.

That's not the point. Your theoretical equity edge here takes into account all knowledge of your reads.

It's like the stock market takes into account all known information. It's an efficient market.

I was thinking of Jordan's HU game a couple of days ago actually, but I think the logic I use is applicable in some other (admittedly quite rare) situations.

http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...531&st=9040

Jordan's opponent was shoving full buyins preflop every few hands. I reason that while calling with a hand like K5o could be profitable against his range, you're better off waiting for a larger edge.

If he doubles through, he's probably going to tighten his range a touch, which is less +EV for us.

He said he was going to play properly if he doubled through twice (and presumably would be fairly happy to keep reloading single buyins for a good while).

Our greatest EV comes from taking as many buyins off him as possible without him doubling twice. We therefore want as large an edge as possible when calling without being so tight as to 'bore' him into leaving.


How do you like them apples?



(P.S. Don't pass up known edges in cash games unless you have a damn good reason for it)

But couldn't one argue that it's still a long term thing? Like, we'll have infinite hands of him being short, and shoving, regardless of whether he wins this one. And not "he" specifically, but a random opponent. In theory?

Technically, in the situation that you're describing here, he's taking into account the +/- EV of the whole situation, not just the hand as a single entity. In essence, he's not passing up a +EV situation because he feels that the small edge in the hand will be outweighed by other -EV factors if he loses (BR independant of course), making the decision to call with something like K5o a -EV proposition overall.

It's like, I'd make the call with J8o if I thought I had live cards and a loss would put him on monkey tilt. Calling with the J8o is surely -EV with respect to the single hand, but the immediate metagame impacts are hugely +EV.

Does that make sense?

Applesauce, bitch.



Seriously?

Wow, this hand is a sick hand.

Obviously he has to be betting for value because he is betting into a dry pot. I couldn't fold this though, but I know I probably should.

If he has the Qh, what calls him that doesn't have him beat?

He might get a call from a set on the turn.

And then it'll probably check down on the river.

There's some value in betting with JhJx, or QhQx there, against some players.