Villain is TAG. He may be a regular as I think he was multitabling but I only have 200 hands on him in my 300,000 hand 100 NL FTP database. He's running 14/10/2.25 with a river AF of 1.5. I checked the river because I really didn't know what he'd call with that I beat. I think in this particular situation, facing a PSB from a very tight guy with a low river AF, it's generally a fold here. However, I have two questions about this hand.

1) What line do most take on the river here? Bet/fold?

2) If the villain in this hand is 19/16/3 (or just a stereotypical TAG with a river AF between 2.5 and 3), is this ever a call?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($98)
UTG ($87.50)
Hero ($111.10)
CO ($107.60)
Button ($237.20)
SB ($123.95)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K, A.
UTG calls $1, Hero raises to $4.5, 1 fold, Button calls $4.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $3.50.

Flop: ($15) 8, T, K (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $10, Button calls $10, UTG folds.

Turn: ($35) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $23, Button calls $23.

River: ($81) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $81, Hero?

I think I probably call here. Against this guy the only real hand that makes sense that beats you is KQ. Most TAGS are raising a set, KT, or 8T (would have to be suited) on the flop, and if not, they certainly would have woken up by the turn. Other two-pair combinations aren't calling preflop.

Looks a lot like a missed flush draw to me. It could be KQ, but I like our hand against his range here.

Also, I don't like bet/folding on the river here. The pot is bigger than our stack, so we can't bet any meaningful amount without commiting ourselves. There also aren't many hands that he is calling a bet on the river with. I like a check/call line here the best I think.

Not sure about river but I would definitely bet more on the flop and turn when the board is that draw heavy.

I fold here, although I'm not entirely sure what he has.

The more I'm looking at it, I'm thinking of a very large hand - J9 of clubs or QJ of clubs.

Even if he does have KQ, which I don't see him calling on the turn with, we're beat.

I though about a big draw too but wouldn't QJcc check the river and hope hes good instead of turning his hand into a bluff?

Not KQ clubs? Would fit into your very large hand bracket, and it would justify the turn call.

Agreed

Looks like a straight, busted flush draw or some weird two pair combo. Why didn't you lead the river? If he isn't very aggressive on the river and he raises you it's an easier lay down.

This is a pretty easy fold. Most players with a QJ or something here check and pray that 2nd pair is good.

You really should bet more on the flop and turn though.

As far as your line on the river, i think a check is better than betting out, he could be slowplaying his set. i would fold the river as played but i don't play online very well so take it FWIW

Oh, and update your blog sometime biatch.

People always say that, but the converter doesn't factor in rake so the bet sizing always appears worse with the converter. Flop bet is 10 into like a 14ish pot which is pretty standard (at least from what I've been seeing in CR vids). On the turn, the pot is 32. My bet there is fairly small (just over 2/3) but I realy don't think it's that bad.

Also to anyone suspecting a busted flush draw, I'm holding the Ac, so it would have to be a more ragged club hand, which is more unlikely to fit into this tight guy's range.

True, he could actually have the same hand as you, just he played it passively and your checking showed enough weakness on the river he thinks it is good. I don't think it's a set because with that draw heavy of a board you would think he is going to protect it against draws.

I have a strange feeling this is a busted straight draw...

Maybe, though I don't see him betting when he has at least some tiny showdown value with the Q. I folded though, so I don't know what he had.

Based on how coordinated the board is, I'd pot the flop and bet about 80% of the pot on the turn.

I really think if he has a 1 pair hand here, he just tries to show it down. The board is so jumbled, it's hard to beat much other than a really raggedy busted draw here.

Guys, consider the action on all previous streets, and the fact that we are dealing with a pretty tight but not weak/tight TAG. Of all the hands that beat us, how many do not throw in a raise at any point in this hand with the flush draw and straight draw out there? I can think of 2. 9J of clubs, and KQ.

I really think he shows J9 quite often as well. KQ maybe, depending on our Hero's stats (any help with that, Snamuh?).

To me as villain, especially if you've been playing TAG/Nitty, it looks like you have AK/AA and kinda gave up on a rough looking board, so I'm overbetting this a lot, hoping it looks like a bluff. If you played LAG, than as villain I make a much more callable bet.

I'd dump it, but I'm a nit.

I tend to run about 19/15 with a high flop aggro (Im cbetting like 80%), and a significantly lower turn aggro. I had him on J9 or KQ as well. There's no reason for KQ to raise at any point in the hand. Generally I think KQ might be folded to a double barrel but because this guy is so tight in his preflop calling range, he may have a harder time letting it go. J9 makes sense as well.

First, I don't know if your sample on the villain is significant enough to make any judgements. Is he really TAG? We can't say for sure, can we?

Ok, so the river is a tough spot. If villain is a TAG, I don't know how a TAG finds any kind of gutterball or two pair here in a hand raised like this PF.

I think I bet the turn harder. That way I don't end up at this river. Since we're here, I'd bet 1/2 pot again. I don't know what I'd do when villain shoved into me. By the time I get to this river, I would be getting 10: with TPTK, so I'd probably call it.