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Full Version: Kj Vs. Short-stack Push
FCP Poker Forum > Poker Strategy Forum > Tournament Play
dingas
Okay, this was a 180 player tournament - $12 buy-in turbo. I have 6500 or so to start the hand. Blinds are 200/400 ante 25. I'm in the cutoff. It is folded around to the gentleman on my right who pushes for about 2000. I have KJo and I overpush. There was one larger stack left to act, if that influences your decision.

In any case, I feel that my play is correct, since my opponent should be pushing a fairly wide range in this spot and KJ does not figure to be a big dog, and with only three people left to act, the chance of one of them waking up with a big hand is not that high (not to mention that AJ and KQ, or even middle pairs, might fold to such action). All in all, I think it is a high variance play, but ultimately plus EV. Does anyone disagree?
NonZeroPossibility
meh... how many people left in the tourny?
dereeekho
fold, ainec

trying to conserve chips, right? and KJ is not a +EV hand against villan's range, plus you have 3 to act behind you
potatoman
Fold.
jmbreslin
Throw it away. KJ may not be a huge dog, but it is likely to be a dog by a fair amount against villain's range. You're behind Ax, KQ, and any PP. You're only a 60/40 fav over hands like T9s. The fact that he's pushing now from that position when he didn't (I assume) push from SB, Button, or CO, suggests he chose to wait for something of value. Add to that the fact that there are still 3 to act after you, one of which is a bigstack, and I'm getting out of the way. I'd rather let biggie call with his stack and try to knock shortie out.

I love when people call shortie pushes with hands like KJ because it means I can feel more comfortable about pushing weak Aces when I'm shortstacked...
dingas
QUOTE (jmbreslin @ Wednesday, November 21st, 2007, 8:36 AM) *
Throw it away. KJ may not be a huge dog, but it is likely to be a dog by a fair amount against villain's range. You're behind Ax, KQ, and any PP. You're only a 60/40 fav over hands like T9s. The fact that he's pushing now from that position when he didn't (I assume) push from SB, Button, or CO, suggests he chose to wait for something of value. Add to that the fact that there are still 3 to act after you, one of which is a bigstack, and I'm getting out of the way. I'd rather let biggie call with his stack and try to knock shortie out.

I love when people call shortie pushes with hands like KJ because it means I can feel more comfortable about pushing weak Aces when I'm shortstacked...


Well, he pushed for 2000 into a pot of 825, so I only need 41% equity to make a call neutral ev. This assumes no action behind, of course, so we have to adjust this upwards a bit to account for the chance of running into AA-JJ or AK. 45% seems like a good estimate. Do you really put villain on a range against which we have less than 45% equity? I'm talking about the typical villain here. I mean, I see your point of view, and you may be right, but what pushing range are you assuming for villain?

I disagree with your last statement, by the way. When I have 2000 with blinds at 200/400 and it is folded to me two off the button, I will be pushing a huge range, and if you fold KJ you will be giving up a ton of value. Obviously, I hope to get calls with KJ when I happen to have a big one, but if I am playing against people who will routinely fold KJ, I think this is a good situation.
Sheiky
How big is your own stack?

The guy on your right has an M of 3, he should be shoving a lot of hands in that spot, so i don't mind playing KJ and overpushing in a turbo.
gobears
If Villain understands M, then his range is almost any two so you're probably a favorite to his range. I like the over-push as you're likely not getting called by the players to act behind you unless they have a very strong hand.
Sheiky
QUOTE (dereeekho @ Wednesday, November 21st, 2007, 6:01 AM) *
fold, ainec

trying to conserve chips, right? and KJ is not a +EV hand against villan's range, plus you have 3 to act behind you


Like Gobears said, you should really be pushing a hell of a lot of hands if you were the villain in that spot.
jmbreslin
QUOTE (gobears @ Wednesday, November 21st, 2007, 1:11 PM) *
If Villain understands M, then his range is almost any two so you're probably a favorite to his range. I like the over-push as you're likely not getting called by the players to act behind you unless they have a very strong hand.


Granted I don't have any experience at the $12 level, but this is a huge assumption. Does Hero have any reason to believe Villain understands M, the gap concept, and how to play shortstacked? If he did indeed pass on opportunities to push first-in from SB, Button, or CO, I don't think he does.
jmbreslin
QUOTE (dingas @ Wednesday, November 21st, 2007, 11:04 AM) *
I disagree with your last statement, by the way. When I have 2000 with blinds at 200/400 and it is folded to me two off the button, I will be pushing a huge range, and if you fold KJ you will be giving up a ton of value.


My frame of reference is micro stakes ($3.40 turbos), where most players don't understand shortstack play. In addition to what I've posted above, the fact that he's let his stack get this low could also indicate that he doesn't have a good grasp of shortstack play.
Sheiky
QUOTE (jmbreslin @ Wednesday, November 21st, 2007, 9:00 PM) *
Granted I don't have any experience at the $12 level, but this is a huge assumption. Does Hero have any reason to believe Villain understands M, the gap concept, and how to play shortstacked? If he did indeed pass on opportunities to push first-in from SB, Button, or CO, I don't think he does.


You're assuming that it's been folded to him on every one of those spots when it probably hasn't.
copernicus
instapush
trystero
I like it
BeaverStyle
Personally, I think it depends on the table dynamics at this point in the tournament. Are you taking the blinds a few times every orbit without contention? Are people playing tight or very loose?

I realize it's a turbo, but those are things to consider when thinking about risking about 1/3 of our stack w/ KJ. Even if we're ahead here, we're not usually that big of a favorite, and I feel in turbos the best way to play is to win a majority of pots w/out showdown. Those chips could come in handy in the next few orbits to put pressure on shorter stacks, instead of calling off when they push.

Then again, villain's range here is quite wide. He should be pushing basically ATC at this point. KJ is definitely against his range, but we do have three people to act behind us. What kind of hands would they need to have to call our overshove here? JJ+, AK?

I don't know, I'd say this decision would be about feel. If you feel you can chip away at other stacks easily at your table, I wouldn't call. Chip preservation in turbos is something a lot of people don't think about.

I'm 50/50 for overshoving/folding > calling
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