copernicus
Tuesday, November 20th, 2007, 9:26 AM
QUOTE (NEtwowilldo @ Tuesday, November 20th, 2007, 10:50 AM)

Slowplaying on the flop is ok, but on the turn, he obviously likes his hand, so at least make a small raise, and if he folds then he had nothing anyways. On the turn he has 1000 left behind after the 430 bet, if you raise him 500 more I dont think he's going anywhere, and by this point he'll see that he has to play for his whole stack and will likely fold if he has absolutely nothing (which isnt likely) or just go all in.
Just get the money in when you have the best hand. Letting him catch up a little is ok, but not all the way.
If he will call on the turn or the river 100% of the time because he has an A or he will fold on the turn or the river 100% of the time because he has garbage it doesnt matter when you put him all in.
If he will fold to a push on the turn even 10% of the time because he has a flush draw, fold if he misses the river, call if he makes his flush, then your EV for for pushing the turn is
860*(.1+.9*.82) + 1860*.18*.9 = 1022.
If you wait till the river to push and he will call or fold depending on whether he makes it is
860*(.82)+1860*.18 = 1040.
The better player he is, the more likely he is to fold to the turn push, and the better it is to wait until the river to push.
and that doesnt even include the EV for getting away from this hand when the Ace hits.
Pushing the turn can never be right in this hand unless you can get him to fold an A on the turn , and if you do the math there its still -EV.