How do you determine a goal profitability for SnGs? There are some very juicy local 6-person SnGs. 150 buy, 515 for first and 277 for second. 2500 starting chips, 25/50 starting blinds, blinds are 12 minutes. 25/50, 50/100, 100/200, 200/400, 300/600.

I have absolutely no idea how to figure out your expectation for these or the +/- EV of chopping heads up.

The players range from horrendous to competent with almost nothing better than that.

very tough structure after 10 hands your pushbotting or responding to push bots.

An ICM split of the 238 in play is probably a bad deal for the player with any signficant chip lead, because the blinds are so high they will grind down the smaller stack pretty quick, while the CL has the luxury of folding with total garbage.

This is why I said a while back that being the CL near the bubble of a SnG gives you an advantage over and above your ICM equity, while being a shortstack gives you less than your ICM equity. As a result, taking pure coinflips earlier in the SnG can be very +$EV if you play a big stack well near the bubble.

Excuse my ignorance. What is "ICM"?

http://www.chillin411.com/node/7

LOL. Thanks. I always try to argue with my buddy about how getting the odds to make a call in a tournament doesn't necessarily justify a call, but I never really knew how to explain it.

Oh. I...erm...disagree.

I think you should only usually pass up a known edge in a tournament if it is on or near the bubble in a SnG. Other than that, the benefits of having a big stack can be far greater than just the extra chips you hold. Being a big stack means you can play your best game, and you aren't restricted to playing tight. When you have a mid-low stack, you can't easily play suited connectors or smaller pairs. You can't call raises with odd hands looking to outplay people postflop. You generally have to start playing more ABC poker. You lose a lot of freedom, and that freedom is worth something in $EV.

I also think it depends on the player. You give Harrington/Cloutier a big chiplead and they are still going to play TAG. The extra benefit isn't too significant for players like them. Now give that stack to someone like Negreanu/Lindgren/Hansen, and they can really open up and exploit the edges that aren't there for a short/midstack.

I was referring to money situations where folding increases your cash equity. I really don't know how to explain it since I'm more of a cash donk.

I don't really know how to word my original question, either. I know how to figure out win-rate for a cash game but unsure of how to do so for a SnG. I'm not really sure what my target should be, what reasonable expectation is, etc.

Well in SNGs you measure your 'winrate' in ROI% whereas in cash games you measure by ptbb/100 hands.

ROI% is the average amount you get back from your buy in - If you play 10 SNGs with a buy in of $100 each, if you win $1500 from them you have an ROI of 50%.

For a SNG with a $150 buy in online, an ROI of more than 5% is pretty good. I'm not sure how that translates to live SNGs though.

Okay, cool. Thanks.

So if I aim for a 5 percent return, I'm looking for 7.50 out every SnG. Or would it be higher due to 6-person? Or due to the difference in quality between live and online players playing at that level?

ROI shouldnt change much, but the variance is up so you need a bigger roll to play them. Dont forget to subtract the fee from your ROI, the above calculation was based on no fee. If youre only making 5% at 150, drop down to $50. You should be able to get it into the high teens low twenties.

Of course if you 26 table like rainKhan, you can make money with a negative ROI (his is -2% or so), because you can leverage the FPPs./rakeback

IMO, i reckon you could aim for a 15-25% ROI in these.

From reading these forums a lot i've been shocked at how bad the average live player is, i'm not sure how that differs in SNGs but from your desciption as horrendous to competant players i'd say 15% or more is attainable for someone who (i'm assuming cause you have many posts) is a good poker player.

Remember though, this is long term, in the short term variance is huge in turbo SNGs and you have to play like 1k+ to know what your real winrate is.

Also, 6-man turbos (which is what they'll be with those blind levels i think) play a lot differently than 6-max cash or normal tournaments so you'd have to adjust your game a lot. However, most of it is quite simple math based stuff because most of the play is all-in or fold quite early on (slight exageration but it's a big part of the game), but if you know basic SNG strategy playing against people who don't you should be a big winner.

Or if you 30-table like SpaceGravy and run at 7% ROI, you can make a ton of money.

Hahah, Hevad Khan has a profit of negative £38k, i don't think any amount of rakeback/FPPs can save plain bad play.

If I remember right his ROI is only -2%, and with what is equivalent to a 30% rakeback deal for supernova status he's almost certainly tilted into the positive side of the ledger.