Shimmering Wang
Thursday, July 10th, 2008, 7:53 AM
QUOTE (AmScray @ Thursday, July 10th, 2008, 3:44 AM)

1) You assrimming faggot, actually cornering me into doing math here.
2) That baseball prospectus site is awesome
To get a snapshot of an "unjuiced" Bonds versus Griffey, lets start out with the quantitative stuff and compare some key offensive stats yielded for either player from ten seasons from the ages of 21-30/31, (since the Bonds/Juice thing seems to have occurred somewhere around 34 (?) and Griffey started playing when he was 19 compared to Bonds 21)
Bonds/Griffey- 21 Years Old to 30/31 Years Old (comprising 10 seasons)
OBA:
Bonds- .396
Griffey- .385
Bonds + .11
HR:
Bonds- 292
Griffey- 400 (lol)
Griffey + 108 home runs (this includes one season where he only played 60'ish games due to injury)
Slugging:
Bonds- .542
Griffey- .585
+ Griffey .43
Bonds was a better base stealer than Griff, so I won't bother doing that math. Big edge to Bonds in SB's during this time frame. One thing I just noticed- which I'm sure someone else has noticed before but I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere- is that Bonds SB tally seemed to dramatically tail off right at the same time he started hitting for insane power. Unlike other players where speed and power tend to be roughly correlated, Bonds seemed to get drastically "stronger" but markedly "slower", going from averaging about 35 SB/Season up until he was about 33, then, at 35 and 36 years old he hit 49 and 73 HR, but only swiped a mere 11 and 13 bases respectively. This is hugely indicative of him going from a lean, wiry player with classic baseball speed and power to a bulkier and slower, pure power roidmonkey, as evidenced in those pictures.
Qualitative stuff:
Griffeys career (and totals) have been gutted by injuries. While I think that trying to argue "what could have been" in a statistics debate with a frequently injured player is nothing more than conjecture and usually fanboy bullshit (of which I am a KG fanboy), it's a pertinent fact here given that muscle mass and strength is a key contributor to remaining injury free. Had Griffey been a roidmonkey, its entirely possible that his "lost seasons" of 95, 02, 03 and 04- the latter three being what should have been the apex of his career- might have been not only statistically par with his past years, but substantially higher. Furthermore, while Griffeys abilities tapered off with age, as is expected with a normal human athletic performance cycle, so much of Bonds 'extreme performance' came after he was juiced and during years when a players abilities should naturally be on the decline. He effectively took years of his career that for an unjuiced player would've been spent diminishing and, as a result of better baseball through chemistry, made those years into his absolute peak. There's no question that steroids were the sole reason for this and likely the chief reason he broke the SSHR and ATHR records.
I was 1000% wrong about Randy Johnson. I'm probably 30%-35% correct on this one.
I will have a response to this at some point today. You make some reasonable points, but they ignore some key aspects of Griffey's Jr. and Bonds's careers.
Since WARP (Wins above replacement level) uses defensive metrics (including FRAR, which has come under some criticism recently), I'll direct you to a purely offensive statistic. RunsCreated per 27 Outs. How many runs per game would a team of JUST this player score?
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OFhttp://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OFI linked to Griffey's and Bonds's pages on fangraphs (an awesome website with some really good content, especially on the main page. I spend a half hour/day there checking out pitching matchups so I can lose money gambling). The number I'm referring to is RC/27, which can be found in the "advanced" chart. Bonds starts slower, but in 1992 he puts up an 11+, and never looks back. Of course, that's his year 28 season, and statistically, should be the beginning of his prime.
I'm hoping to track down that steroids webpage so I can link it, because I know so very little about steroids, and don't want to say something without knowing it's, you know, kinda trueish.
Wang