Royal_Tour
Sunday, November 11th, 2007, 1:40 AM
QUOTE (nomad_monad @ Sunday, November 11th, 2007, 2:28 AM)

hm.
interesting.
i shovel here. there are two main things guiding that decision
- unlike normal, i'd really like to fold villain if he's holding a worse hand here - 2 pair. i think we're going to get multiple players here a lot because of all the dead $ in the pot. so, assuming villain and at least one of the other guys comes along (or one of them is slowplaying a str8), villain's gobbling up some of our equity (v. flush draws) or outs (v. str8s). if someone besides villain has 2 pair, i don't think his action changes much whether you shove and villain calls, or you raise and villain shoves. both sequences of actions in front of someone holding 2 pair send the same basic message - they're either gonna play or not. but if villain holds 2 pair, i think the chances of him folding it go up a little bit if you shove.
- we want to charge the max to draws, especially since more than one in the pot means they'll be blocking each other. with all the dead $ in there, they get at least 2-1 regardless of whether we shove and villain raises, or we raise and villain shoves. of course, their true odds are worse than 2-1, but all the more reason to make them call off more immediately.
the potential downside is that if villain has a str8 or an overset, we've just isolated ourselves against him, when we'd have better EV if more $ comes into the pot from the other players. but when he calls, there will be so much dead $ in the pot that flush draws will think they have the odds to call anyway.
btw, even if you were to think folding bottom set on a board like this is ok in rare instances, this isn't one of them because of all the dead $ in the pot.
I'm surprised you didnt mention villain's range.
I think besides any over sets, flopped straight, two over+FD, his range also includes 55-9,9 in EP right? Its the first rotation of the table, his min raise might be more information than it is strength.
with 0 reads at this table, I'm not folding a set here. even though its bottom set and coordinating, i'd sooner blame it on a cooler than let go a hand that might be way ahead right now. agree?