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Full Version: I Need Some Unbiased Opinions
FCP Poker Forum > Poker Strategy Forum > No Limit Texas Hold'em Cash Games
IBFT
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (7 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)

Button ($96.10)
SB ($46.85)
BB ($118.80)
UTG ($20)
MP1 ($184.80)
Hero ($102.10)
CO ($101.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5 icon_suit_club.gif , 6 icon_suit_club.gif .
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.5, 1 fold, Button raises to $8, 2 folds, Hero calls $4.50.

Button had been fairly ABC. I had played a few pots with him to this point, no real imagination, check/folds with nothing, bets/raises with something. I felt the stack sizes were deep enough to make this call. After the hand I felt it was a bad call because I was oop, but back to my original point, after the RR, i felt his range was AK, AA, KK, QQ and I was fairly confident that if I got a favorable flop that they would be in love with their hand. As for my image, I would say tag. Ive been playing fairly snug tonight (This was the first time tonight I had raised with suited connectors), have bet every hand I've raised, and havent had to show a hand down (but as you can tell from my stack, nothing really big yet).


Flop: ($17.50) A icon_suit_club.gif , 4 icon_suit_diamond.gif , 9 icon_suit_club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Flush draw and a 3 card straight(!). I normally bet my flush draws, but given buttons pf reraise, I wanted to check so that I could call a reasonable bet, I didnt want to bet and get raised out. Buttons check told me one of two things: He hit a set (top set, given the range I put him on) or he had Kings/Queens and was afraid of the ace.

Turn: ($17.50) T icon_suit_spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $12, Button raises to $24, Hero calls $12.

I decide to bet out at this point to try to take down the pot if he does have kings/queens. After the minraise, I'm fairly certain he has top set. I suppose he could have made 3 tens on the turn, but it doesn't really matter. Im almost certain he has a set. After my bet and his minraise there is $53.50 in the pot, $12 for me to call. If I'm going with my read of top set, I only have 7 live outs (the 4 and 10 of clubs would fill him up), so while I dont think I'm getting the right price, I feel like thats offset by the fact that I dont think villain can put me on a flush draw, and if a club hits i'll be able to get paid off completely (the rest of his stack).


I wont go into the river, I don't feel its important to my thought process and I'm sure to most its not a real interesting hand. But is my thought process here correct? I think this is the kind of hand where it could be a 'chip bleeding' situation. I guess the two things that make me think it was the right play were 1) the fact that I thought the player was so tight preflop that I felt i could put him on a hand I felt would pay me off if i hit big 2) his poor min raise on the turn. But I would say that draw play is one of my weaker points, so any thoughts/tips/opinions would be welcomed. But please don't call me a little girl and spit in my eye. Thanks:)
ghoti
I think preflop is ok, although as you say being OOP will make the following play harder, although a good read on villain helps. One question is can he get away from good beat hands or will he call off his stack with ZOMG TPTK.

I don't think Flop-c/Turn-b is going to get him to lay down KK,QQ. You sound like you've been playing TAG and betting strength on flops. Why should villain give you credit for an A? Some people would play a weak A that way but that doesn't seem to fit your image.

I have no problem with calling the turn if you believe you can stack V when you hit the flush. Again it depends a bit on knowing if Mr ABC can get away from his not quite good enough hands but you think he won't so call.
simo_8ball
I don't think you have much fold equity on the turn, so I'm not a fan of betting there. The rest seems fairly standard, although there is a case for folding to the preflop reraise.
Zach6668
Meh, that's such a small reraise, simo, I can't imagine folding there.
simo_8ball
CODE
flopping EXACTLY two pair by pairing EACH of your hole cards                         2.02%
flopping EXACTLY trips by flopping two cards to one hole card                        1.347%
flopping EXACTLY a full house, trips of one hole card and pairing the other          0.092%
flopping EXACTLY four of a kind, three cards to one of your hole cards               0.01%
flopping an 8 out straight draw*                                                    10.449%
flopping a straight/straight flush                                                   0.980%
flopping a flush/straight flush                                                      0.842%
flopping a four flush                                                               10.944%


Some of those overlap, I think.

We are getting at best ~20/1 pot+implied odds if he stacks off on EVERY board with EVERY hand. More likely is that we have about 10/1 implied+pot odds. Then consider that we don't win every time we hit a good hand.
We flop at least two pair 5% of the time, but sometimes he will have significant redraws or already have us beat (e.g. AK on K56 flop has 26% equity against us).
When we flop a hand on an A high board we lose action against KK/QQ/JJ. When no A/K/Q flops we lose action against AK/AQ.
When we flop a flush we often get little action or he has a 7 out redraw.
When we flop a straight he often has just A high on a scary board.


Calling the raise can't be a big mistake, but I also don't think we can have much of an edge calling there. I guess metagame and implied tilt could be factored in.
Zach6668
I agree, simo, I would fold for more, especially given we're OOP, but such a small raise, I think we've got a great chance to stack an AA/KK type hand if we flop 2 pair or whatever.
Moneyball16
If the T or 4 of clubs comes on the river what size of bet would you guys be willing to call with?
simo_8ball
Yikes. Honestly I'm not paying off much on a paired flush river. Anything more than ~$25 and I'm folding.
David_Nicoson
QUOTE (simo_8ball @ Sunday, November 11th, 2007, 7:59 AM) *
We are getting at best ~20/1 pot+implied odds if he stacks off on EVERY board with EVERY hand. More likely is that we have about 10/1 implied+pot odds. Then consider that we don't win every time we hit a good hand.
We flop at least two pair 5% of the time, but sometimes he will have significant redraws or already have us beat (e.g. AK on K56 flop has 26% equity against us).
When we flop a hand on an A high board we lose action against KK/QQ/JJ. When no A/K/Q flops we lose action against AK/AQ.

In that case, then we can win on those same boards without hitting.
simo_8ball
QUOTE (David_Nicoson @ Sunday, November 11th, 2007, 2:46 PM) *
In that case, then we can win on those same boards without hitting.

In principle. Surely you appreciate the problem with this in practice.

If we know villain has AK then we can win on most non A/K flops, and if we know he has KK/QQ/JJ we can win on most A high flops.

There is no way of knowing without investing heavily postflop.
IBFT
QUOTE (ghoti @ Sunday, November 11th, 2007, 6:00 AM) *
I think preflop is ok, although as you say being OOP will make the following play harder, although a good read on villain helps. One question is can he get away from good beat hands or will he call off his stack with ZOMG TPTK.

I don't think Flop-c/Turn-b is going to get him to lay down KK,QQ. You sound like you've been playing TAG and betting strength on flops. Why should villain give you credit for an A? Some people would play a weak A that way but that doesn't seem to fit your image.

I have no problem with calling the turn if you believe you can stack V when you hit the flush. Again it depends a bit on knowing if Mr ABC can get away from his not quite good enough hands but you think he won't so call.



After I posted this I thought about the hand more and I realized that my turn play seems a bit fishy. In my mind, when I made it, I was representing AK. This was the thinking:

"I raised preflop now he took the lead by reraising me. I called OOP and the flop came ace high. I check and he checks. I could have AK here and I was checking hoping to get in a check-raise on kings or queens. When he checks the flop I obviously can't get the CR in so now I must bet out on the turn."

This is what I was tryring to make the hand look like on the turn. I had no desire/ambition of rep'ing a hand I didnt have on the flop. His flop check got me to take a stab at it. As for me being TAG and betting strength - its true, I had bet everytime I had taken the lead. But in this case the lead was taken from me and like I said, I didnt want to bet the flop and get raised off of it.

Now thats what I was trying to do, but as I said, I definitely see what you're saying and I somewhat agree.

I appreciate the comments/discussion, keep it going please.
David_Nicoson
QUOTE (simo_8ball @ Sunday, November 11th, 2007, 10:37 AM) *
In principle. Surely you appreciate the problem with this in practice.

If we know villain has AK then we can win on most non A/K flops, and if we know he has KK/QQ/JJ we can win on most A high flops.

There is no way of knowing without investing heavily postflop.

Yeah, all true. But it's cheap. Unless the villain is very good, I'm taking a flop.
IBFT
QUOTE (simo_8ball @ Sunday, November 11th, 2007, 9:16 AM) *
Yikes. Honestly I'm not paying off much on a paired flush river. Anything more than ~$25 and I'm folding.


My intention was to go with my read here. If a non-pairing club came, I was going to shove (stack sizes were about the size of the pot at this point) and if a pairing club came, I was going to c/f. At that point the only thing I could beat would have been AK and I was feeling fairly certain he didnt have that.

(Caveat: I guess if it was a ridiculously small bet, somewhere in the $5 to $10 range where it was mathematically wrong for me to fold, I would have called)
Willing 2 Die
If he has a hand in the original range you put him on, the turn bet is not going to make him go away, he'll stick around. After his min-raise, i would go with my reads on his previous play and either fold without the proper odds for the flush draw or semi bluff raise all in.
NoBBiR
QUOTE (simo_8ball @ Sunday, November 11th, 2007, 4:30 AM) *
I don't think you have much fold equity on the turn, so I'm not a fan of betting there. The rest seems fairly standard, although there is a case for folding to the preflop reraise.


I agree with Simo here that a serious case can be made for folding preflop. SC's play very well in position, but OOP against a 3bettor that is almost always betting the flop, I think you can find a fold a lot of the time.

But I'm a donk so I would have called the small 3bet as well tongue.gif

And wow I was just looking through old topics and before I start posting on shit that is 5 months old I should start reading that nobody is going to care at this point smile.gif
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