Well we hit our gin card.

Villian is a donk. I have seen him squeeze with AK shoving AI for $150 into a $12 pot. And then this hand went down about 4 or 5 hands earlier: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1680817

shove all in? value bet? check/raise?


No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $180.62
Hero: $258.55
Button: $254.98
SB: $343.97
BB: $190.68

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with
UTG calls, Hero raises to $9, Button calls, SB calls, 2 folds.

Flop: ($31, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $24, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: ($79, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $34, Hero calls.

River: ($147, 2 players)
Hero..?

Put out $90. Button not overbetting the turn makes me think he's got something decent he'd rather get value for.

I agree with this line. Do NOT Check Raise.

I realize we hit our gin card but I actually think this card will cost us money. sure it makes us feel all warm and fuzzy inside but i don't think we needed it unless villian is on spades. I'm thinking something like KQ. Definitely lead the river for 80-100.

yup ace is to much of a scare card against his range to check raise.

I very strongly disagree with your guys that villain's holdings are more likely to be KQ etc.. here.

EDIT: i just read cwiks post about villain, and looked at the HH, lol.... but sicne i already wrote all this i still stand by it

we raised to 9, and we almost pot the flop and he still comes along. KQ is possible, if he's hoping he is a head.

we check the turn and he bets weak. less than half pot. If he had any doubts of his KQ, why is he spewing chips here when we will almost certainly call such a small bet.

He would need to put us on AQ JJ,QQ for his half pot turn bet make any sense as some sort of value bet.

Notice how the Ace of spades is missing.

I vote to check/raise the river. Because i'm different and gross, and I know if we lead here, he's going to question why we woke up on teh river. but if we check to his nut flush, he'll be value betting 70ish, and we'll raise all in. and he'll feel forced to call.

and we'll stack him, and then post the hand in NL strat on FCP, and most replies will be to bet the river, except one.

Got to be $100 to make the shove easier.
Way to suck out and that's just AWFUL play by the villain.

Guys...what are you afraid of losing value against by checking this river? We hit a very sneaky card. If he's got trip sixes, a flush, or full house, he's going to bet the river...I really can't imagine how he'd check behind...and he's possibly call the the all-in. If he's got air and feels like bluffing, he'll bet but can't call. Are you really scared that we need to bet this in case he's got the case ace or KQ or some other sort of medium pair? If he's got those hands...he's probably not paying off our v-bet.

I'm leading this river card just about every time, including this time.

The villain still may call with ANY King given the board (he can't be outkicked) and you might be attempting to represent the ACE.
If he has a flush or perhaps full house, then he was slowplaying it and your river bet will not prevent him from following through with a raise.... case in point > pokerhand.org

You MIGHT lose value from check-raising in the case that he has a 6, and that would be a pretty sick play... but I'm concerned with getting paid FO SHO.

Lead for 95$

Villain has underbet the pot, so we need to "prime the pump" a little here.

The real question is, if we thought we were behind until we spiked our boat, why were we calling down to the river?

We're not giving the hand up because he donk-bet a scare card.... after we checked to him.

I've had many thoughts after reading the prior statement, and the one I feel the most strong about is that the villain DOES NOT have a flush at this point.

I think we're looking at a 6 , possibly a King with FD here.

I think I bet $90. If he shoves I'd let the time bank run down and then call. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

"Woops, I didn't realize I rivered an ace!"

Metagame FTW.

he's a donk so he's paying off our v-bet with tons on holdings and raising trip 6s or a flush like they are going out of style. i stick by leading 80-100.

way too much analysis for a donk, good thinking but not vs a true donk

+1

I'm not saying Cobalt doesn't have a point. This is read dependent. Some villains can be COUNTED ON to put chips in with pocket 44's here. On the other hand, two weeks ago, I saw a guy in first position check both a SF and quads in less than two hours.

Villains differ.

I put in a weak blocker'ish bet of $55, hoping to get raised. Villian flat called w/ 76s. I feel like I missed a lot of value in this hand.

I think I like the c/r the most, followed by a 3/4 pot size bet.