Hey guys. This is a hand being discussed on another forum and most have the attitude of "you played suited connectors so now you have to go broke after hitting your hand". A lot of the comments have been fairly void of any thinking beyond the first level. You guys seem to have a more in depth analysis on average and I'm curious to hear your thoughts. Here is the bulk of the original post.


I've been raising a ton from the CO and BU and generally playing pretty aggressive. Thats when this hand happened...


Hand #47285287-10747 at Bangor (No Limit Hold'em)
Started at 07/Nov/07 13:58:21

Janne123 is at seat 0 with $64.55.
TiltTilt is at seat 1 with $50.75.
willy512 is at seat 2 with $50.25.
tukanin is at seat 3 with $116.
HD900 is at seat 4 with $56.20.
Senor Loco is at seat 5 with $68.10.
The button is at seat 4.

Senor Loco posts the small blind of $.25.
Janne123 posts the big blind of $.50.
(willy512 did not post OT, is sitting out.)

Janne123: -- --
TiltTilt: -- --
tukanin: 5s 4s
HD900: -- --
Senor Loco: -- --

Pre-flop:

TiltTilt folds. tukanin raises to $1.75. HD900
folds. Senor Loco calls. Janne123 calls.

Flop (board: 6c 8h 7d):

Senor Loco checks. Janne123 checks. tukanin bets
$4.25. Senor Loco raises to $8.50. Janne123
re-raises to $20. tukanin ???



Both have been playing pretty tight:

Senor Loco 22/15/1.5, over 70 hands
Janne123 14/4/infinity, over 70 hands


They usually just let their blinds go to my raises or offered very little resistance on the flop or turn.

Janne - playing only 14% of his hands preflop, much more likely to be a set here than a str8 or 2 pair.
Senor Loco - set, 2 pair, same hand, or nuts. i doubt pair+draw with an AF of only 1.5.

ideal situation would be for both of them to have 2 pair/set because they'd be blocking each other.

this is probably our ideal scenario if all 3 of us go all in:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.589% 30.77% 06.82% 115038 25486.50 { 5s4s }
Hand 1: 28.917% 27.98% 00.94% 104594 3508.50 { 88-66 }
Hand 2: 33.494% 26.67% 06.82% 99715 25500.00 { 88-66, T9s, 86s+, 76s, 54s, T9o, 86o+, 76o, 54o }


this is probably our worst case scenario: (included T9 in Janne's range)

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 12.379% 09.97% 02.41% 115038 27820.50 { 5s4s }
Hand 1: 60.463% 54.45% 06.01% 628408 69355.50 { 88-66, T9s, T9o }
Hand 2: 27.158% 19.24% 07.92% 222065 91347.00 { 88-66, T9s, 86s+, 76s, 54s, T9o, 86o+, 76o, 54o }


even if Janne decided to get over-agg with two pair, giving him the same hand range as Senor Loco:
Hand 0: 25.888% 16.78% 09.11% 416328 226075.00 { 5s4s }
Hand 1: 37.108% 28.95% 08.16% 718292 202526.50 { 66, T9s, 86s+, 76s, 54s, T9o, 86o+, 76o, 54o }
Hand 2: 37.004% 29.43% 07.57% 730357 187865.50 { 88-66, T9s, 86s+, 76s, 54s, T9o, 86o+, 76o, 54o }


if Senor Loco folds to our shove and Janne has a wide range:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.019% 41.82% 09.20% 22770 5010.00 { 5s4s }
Hand 1: 48.981% 39.78% 09.20% 21660 5010.00 { 66, T9s, 86s+, 76s, 54s, T9o, 86o+, 76o, 54o }

if Senor Loco folds to our shove and Janne has only sets, we're a 60-40 favorite.
if Senor Loco folds to our shove and Janne has sets or the nuts, we're a 25-75 dog.


In summary, a lot of things have to go right for us to be a favorite, and even then, not by much. Certainly not enough to go after the dead $ in the pot (that we've only invested $6 in so far) when one of the villains has pretty much said he's stacking off here.
Fold.

I still say shove Money

Careful with this hand... it causes explosive arguments.


Basically the question is, do we play what is essentially the second nuts against 2 sleeping mummies who both have check-raised?

Identify yourself son.