Villain is 26/5/1.5. He timed down after my preflop reraise before calling. Is this an easy fold?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($33.75)
BB ($99.50)
UTG ($113.65)
MP ($100.95)
CO ($129.45)
Hero ($100)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, Q.
UTG raises to $3.5, 2 folds, Hero raises to $12, 2 folds, UTG calls $8.50.

Flop: ($25.50) J, 3, 6 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $18, UTG calls $18.

Turn: ($61.50) 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $83.65 (All-In), Hero?

I can't imagine you're ahead enough to call. Would villain do this on the turn with AKhh to disguise the flush draw?

I can't imagine folding this.
AcJc is waiting for his call.

wow I probably call this and have him show JJ

I always fall for these. I really have a hard time believing he would call with an over pair with the flush draw out there. But then again people are stupid that is why we play poker...

I dunno maybe this is one of those stare at the screen until it autofolds you.

I snap call this and expect to see some combination of a pair and a FD or a naked FD or something like that. Really, let's go over the legit hands that have us beat.

AA or KK - Are they ever flatting that flop and open shoving the turn? I can't see it.
JJ, 66, 33 - These make no sense either.
88 kinda makes sense, but still weird for the same reason of open shoving the turn.

You really have to be ahead here a lot. I think AJcc or Jxcc is very likely, or even some weird heart draw that hit the 8. I call pretty fast.

Raises preflop 5% of the time? I think we're looking at AKhh or JJ.

He is only raising 5% of the time, that means his raise range is pretty small.

AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ, AJ accounts for 5.6%.

UTG you have to think that range shrinks to like, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK.

I would be putting him on jacks, the 8 is obviously a blank and there has to be something attaching him to this flop to play it this way.

I'd fold.

Nice edit.

how big is your sample size against the villain? I don't think we can narrow his range quite that much unless this is a decent sized sample.

750+ hands.

I think if we didn't have these stats it would make this a much harder fold. However, given these stats and this opponent absolutely everything about this hand screams JJ.

I cannot imagine a single other hand he plays this line given his stats, especially considering the fact he tanked preflop. That is a HUGE clue because we can rule out half of his range just based on that fact alone. I'd also bet you aren't reraising with many hands preflop either.

That is why he shoved here.

lately when all i can beat is a bluff, i've been folding. i fold here.

i'd fold unless we've been an active preflop 3-bettor.

you need about 35% equity in this pot.
his range is pretty tight, as others noted.
if you run an equity probability calculation, villain basically needs to be flatting flop & shoving turn with JJ/88 (or flat calling pre then doing the same w/AA or KK) less than 50% of the time for the call to be break even.
that seems pretty good for us, until you consider:
- his AF is only 1.5
- 6 combos of JJ (or 88), only 2 combos of AhKh & AcJc.

one thing to keep in mind - it's not unusual to see someone change their mind about slowplaying a set v. a PFR if the turn brings another draw. with two possible flush draws out there, villain could've decided that he didn't want to risk giving a free card to the exact same semibluffing hands we think could be in his range.

Should we be reraising preflop against someone this passive? Given how tight you guys think his range is should this be a flat call?

yes. you could possibly make a point for JJ, but i think QQ is insta 3-bet.

I think you guys effed up his range:

5.3% = 88+, AJs+, KQs, AKo

Vs that range;




We need to be 3-betting preflop.

Remember that he is UTG, so that should tighten his range a little further than has already been suggested. He also called a reraise, so that should get rid of the bottom of his range, and should remove AA/KK from the top most of the time.

I can't see him going crazy with 99/TT here, and AK/AQ don't make any sense without a flush draw.

I think his range going to the flop is as most TT+, AQ+.

His range for check/calling the flop and open shoving the turn is at best AcKc, AcQc, AhKh, JJ.

That also relies on him check/calling the flop with nothing but a bdfd and AK/AQ high. Which is fairly unlikely.

Also, there is the possibility that he's slowplayed AA/KK.



We would have to weight the hands as to likelihood of him taking this line with each of them, but I think the line fits JJ better than any of the others, so I think we should consider that a more strong possibility than backdoor club draws floating the flop. Factor in a chance of AA/KK and I think this is a clear fold against a player this passive.

Time to chuck it and move on. Somewhat ahead/waaay behind here.

Fwiw, no way quad 8's shove the turn like this...the board got more juicy for us to catch something if we hadnt already made our hand.

Reread the board

I am not sure what the others will say but I like it because it gives us information about his hand.

This is actually what I did. I had to figure it's AA or JJ. AA less likely, but seem people may get tricky this way. Due to the time-down preflop, I had to figure it was AA hollywooding it or a hand like TT-JJ actually debating folding. I stared at my screen playing it over in my head and then just let myself time down until it folded.



Winner. I folded, he then told me he was trying to protect against the flush draws with his shove, claiming he had JJ. It made sense more than anything else.