Bodog 5/10 NLHE (4-handed)

CO $562
Cobalt $1607

Cobalt is BB w/ Q J . CO has really been LAGging it up since we've been particularly short...making these frequent raises pre-flop. He seems to be a donk to me. Earlier, I caught him raising T7s in MP at a full table, betting the flop OOP w/ a flush draw, and then check-raising the turn when he missed. So far, for several orbits, I've not defended my blinds. The table's been mostly playing raise and take it for a while. I haven't check-raised anyone yet during this session.

Pre-flop:
CO raises to $35, 2 folds, Cobalt calls

Flop ($75): K T 6 (2 players)
Cobalt checks, CO bets $40, Cobalt raises to $160, CO re-raises to $280, Cobalt ?


(Currently needing to call $120 into $515...villain has $247 behind)

Er, call? I don't see what else you can do

If he has a king you really have no implied odds to call this bet. If you don't think he has a king, I'd call and see a turn. If he doesn't have a king (but has a different pair), pushing won't make him fold if he's already invested this much. As it is, however, it looks like a king, and although we have the odds to call, we don't have the implied odds. I fold.

tough spot.

did some quick math:

So if you shove you are 3.2:1 (32%) to hit your straight and with pot odds giving us 3:1, however we don't know if all of our outs are clean, As/9s might be no good, plus redraw outs if he has 2pair/set. His range may be bigger than this (more flush draw? air?).


Board: Kc Ts 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.817% 27.78% 00.04% 9625 13.50 { QdJs }
Hand 1: 72.183% 72.14% 00.04% 24998 13.50 { KK+, 66, AKs, AsQs, KsQs, KTs, AKo, KTo }

I am not sure what kind of fold equity you still have here (little) or if his range is a lot bigger, but looks like shoving is going to be marginal at best.

If we call, we are roughly 5.7:1 to hit the straight on the turn, and are getting 4.3:1 on our money and 6.35:1 in implied odds if we stack him. Though again we don't know if all our outs are clean and some of our outs might have less value because he might fold sometimes if an Ace peels. So we are gonna have to be pretty sure he never folds here if we call, I am not sure that is too likely, because it is possible he has the flush draw here or was making a play.

Really, I think we need to just give up on this one. Lets stake him next hand instead.

EDIT: Just noticed this was heads up, so his range here probably includes a shit ton more. Tough spot. I probably still fold though..

I think you are getting a big enough price to at least call... you are 31% against an offsuit AhKh

Since he is lagging it up and we are heads up he could easily show up with 88 or something stupid a lot.

I probably shovel but I suck at heads up.

My brain just exploded.

yeah I ment not spades = offsuit but I just decided to go with hearts.


lol bonghitaments

I don't believe the hand started HU, probably 3 or 4 handed



took me a minute to get that.

why would we take AsKs out of his range? he is 29% vs any AK.

i was just looking at the best case senario (backdoor flush is good)

best case scenario is air followed by small flush draw followed by 2 pair

Edit: heh, 2 pair is even better then air here sometime, we are better here vs KTo then AJo

Just to clarify:



As for the hand itself, I don't hate repopping it preflop to $125 or so against a LAG.

As played, I can't see how shoving is better than calling, and I think you are ok to call with the bdfd as backup.

Even if he has been donking it up, his flop play is extremely strong, and if he is donktastic I wouldn't exclude KT in his calling range. It's not a lot to call here but I think you would be drawing thin.

?

How can we be drawing thin?

Pretty much only AsKs, and we still have outs there. But yeah, we're not drawing THAT thin, ever.

I call.

Push if a spade hits the turn. Check if we make the straight.

Do you mean pretty much the opposite of what you actually wrote?

If he has a K it's good for our implied odds no?

I'm also not sure how we can have odds to call but not implied odds.

I'm also not sure how you fold.

Why don't we call and shove if either draw gets there?

I was just thinking about my earlier analysis. I guess you can give a little more weight to the call, as your odds of hitting the straight are gonna be a bit higher, because I didn't really consider the turn might be checked through giving you another shot at getting there. The only problem with this is that if the turn does get checked through I suppose your odds of actually stacking him might drop a little bit.

Either you have the implied odds and you can call based on that, or you have pot odds to see two cards without implied odds.

I think this C-R was too hard. 120 ballpark sounds better. I also hate C-Ring with the weaker draw.

Also...why are we calling? Hands that 3 bet us here usually have us drawing very thin, or we have to avoid the board pairing upon completing our hands. I know he's a donk box, but donk boxes get hands too.

Also, i don't much care for pushing any spade. He's not laying this down.

I put the raiser on a made hand, so I think he'll bet the turn to protect against the flush. I think we can get all-in there without betting out of rhythm.

Somebody please explain to me why we take different lines with our semi-bluffs than our made hands and expect people to fold anything but air?

I'd bet the turn if were drawing to the flush and hit on the turn as well.

Ideally, we're check-raising with a better draw...and ideally we're not getting ourselves into this spot in the first place (playing a mediocre hand OOP). I did consider going a little less with the sizing, but with the board being so draw heavy, I thought I'd err a little larger. I assumed he'd fold...if he called, I left myself a good size shove on the turn. I did not expect the min-re-raise.

Actually, this speaks to something I've been seeing a lot lately. The past few days, I've noticed that people have been min-raising and min-re-raising like crazy. I'm not quite sure why it seems to be happening more frequently, but I am getting that impression.

As for the hand, I called, the peeled on the turn, and I folded to his shove.