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Full Version: Is This A Clear Fold?
FCP Poker Forum > Poker Strategy Forum > Omaha Poker
Sheiky
PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $0.02 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Hero ($1.92)
UTG ($4.32)
MP ($2.68)
CO ($0.98)
Button ($4.75)
SB ($4.46)

Preflop: Hero is BB with , , , .
1 fold, MP calls $0.02, CO calls $0.02, Button calls $0.02, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($0.10) , , (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, CO checks, Button bets $0.06, SB folds, Hero calls $0.06, MP folds, CO folds.

Turn: ($0.22) (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $0.08, Hero calls $0.08.

River: ($0.38) (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $0.38, Hero calls $0.38.

Final Pot: $1.14

Flop play is ok i think.

On the turn i had strong doubts about the strength of my draw with a paired board but i couldn't get myself to pass up on those odds.

On the river i wasn't sure what the correct play is, i was worried about the full house possibility but i thought he could be betting 3 nines of a lower flush here.

Comments on this hand and simmilar cituations in omaha appreciated.
BigLebowski
Interesting hand.

I play hand the same, but depending on the opponent I might rarely fold this turn. He def put you to a difficult decision on the river. I think you have to let this one go. If I were the villain I would have played a boat or nut flush pretty much the same way.
simo_8ball
Turn call is very marginal out of position. In position it would be ok, but even if you hit, you're probably check/folding the river. Let it go. Reverse implied odds and all that.
Mister Hand
Against anyone but a very aggressive maniac this is probably a weak play on every street, imo.

On the flop, you're calling the bet with a second best flush draw and a gutshot. I think this is marginal, as you only have three outs to the nuts (the non-club jacks.) If your flush draw was the nut draw, you'd have an easy call or even a raise here. You also still have two people behind you, and while a check raise is unlikely, if one of them has a flush draw too, you either have two fewer outs (if their draw is smaller) or you're going to lose lots of money if they have the A-X of clubs and you make your hand.

Then the board pairs on the turn. You can't call with any flush draw here, even if it's the nut draw, which yours isn't. It's certainly plausible that he bet two pair on the flop, and now has a boat. Even if he doesn't have a boat - say he had a hand like QJ98, betting his straight draw on the flop, and "only" has trips on the turn. That still means that three of your flush cards will now fill him up.

But even if any flush will win the hand for you, I don't think you're getting correct odds to call here. You're not quite getting 4-1 on your turn call, and you don't really have implied odds. As you said, you're afraid of the boat possibility, and you're out of position. So if you check, and he can't beat a flush, it's very unlikely that he'll bet with three clubs and a pair on the board, unless he's been on a bluff every street.

Then you call a potsized bet on the river, saying that you thought he "could" have three 9s and a lower flush. Okay, but you're only getting 2-1 on the call here, so there has to be at least a 1 in 3 chance that the hand he has is one you can beat. How likely is that here? 33% of the time? Doubtful, espeically in Omaha, where the four card hands make it much more likely one has the hand they're representing. Imo, the most likely cards he has in his hand are T9, 92, or 95, along with two other cards that gave him a straight or flush draw.

So unless you knew this player extremely well, - well enough that you notes on him read something like "always raises preflop whenever he has a suited ace, and likes to make pot sized bluffs on the river" I think you have clear folds on the turn and river, and a fold on the flop is probably correct too.
Sheiky
Wow, thanks for that analysis, that's great.
BudBundy
easy fold on turn.

crystal clear fold on river.
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