$1/2 NL (6 handed)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($245.35)
MP ($165.15)
CO ($430.75)
Button ($587.77)
SB ($80)
BB ($194.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q , Q .
Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, Button calls $8, SB calls $7, 1 fold.

Flop: ($26) 8 , T , 7 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $24, Button raises to $78, SB folds, Hero?

Button is running at 25/5 through 50 hands. We got involved in 1 big hand earlier, and he made a comment he thought i was bluffing (I wasn't, but he folded after my river shove), so that hand was playing with my mind after his raise.

I can't see flat calling here, so do we fold or shove?

Bob

Tough spot, but I´d fold it without a great read. Flop is too ugly. Simply to many hands has you in bad shape. He might be trying to protect a 78, 8T, a set, a straight... And what else is there? He could have ATspades, in wich case you are slithtly behind anyway. AKs spades and you are pretty much 50/50. 89....

If I senced we had some real history I might shove, otherwise, I fold.

Without a good read I would probably fold. That's a real tough situation to be in.

I can't decide on this one. He's up against just the blinds he knows he's only gonna be up against one or two players. He's either got you killed or he missed. You really do need more history here. I think I'd fold and move seats to his right.

Shove.

He probably re-raises you preflop with 10's... and maybe 8's since he's got the button. So the only set i can really give him credit for is 7's.

Your bet looks like a standard c-bet.

Maybe you're flipping against 10-9 or J-10... but I think you're way ahead here often enough given the read on the villain.

Actually... since you're OOP...

If you want to shove this overpair... why not call and see if the turn bricks before getting it in?
You do have to dodge quite a few bullets... but it might not be so bad.

My only problem with that is without a good enough read to put villain on a hand, what do we call an "ok" turn card. If the King of diamonds pops up on the turn, we're probably safe, but what if he has KT? If the ace of hearts comes out do we give up? He could have AT, just as much as he could have JT. I think a call is out of the question. I probably shove in this position, and hope he hasn't got J9 and then hope to hold up, but thats because I like to gamble.

I can think of 16 cards that are definitely good:

-The queen (non spade)
-Any 7, since i'm not going to worry about low pair improving him further... i'm going broke to that hand anyway.
-any 2-5 non spade

If we're not worried about the FD then you can add 5 more good cards to that.

Maybe I'm a station/POW, but I can't imagine just folding QQ on a T78 board after one raise on the flop.

I really need to stick to limit.

I also think this forum, in general, is too weak tight, but I don't necessarily know if this comes into play in this hand.

This is exactly how I feel when I read not just this forum but the NL forums on 2+2 aswell. It seems that everything that is a borderline call or fold in NL is a very standard 3-bet in limit. It makes me depressed at how bad I must be at reading hands at no limit online or depressed that im trying to learn how to play NL by a bunch of weak tight pussies.

All in.

He cold called your raise, so it's less likely that he's hit this board running, he probably has something like AT of spades or another slightly drawy hand that you're ahead of imo.

Would he raise that much with top set?

I honestly think you have the best hand here, so shoving>folding imo.

You're a dog to ATs. Just sayin'

Given our table image I probably push in here. The fact that he allready called us out once thinking we were bluffing increases the chances he's raising us light here.

i bet the flop slightly smaller, smooth call a raise and then bet/fold most turns.

at first i thought it was a clear shove, now i'm not so sure. i'd say it's probably close to an even money play either way.

he's 25/5, his cold-calling preflop is huge here.



i kind of see it as a way behind or slightly ahead thing.



you have to have the best hand here more than 1/2 the time to make it profitable.

in pokerstove it looks like a pretty clear fold:

81,180 games 0.010 secs 8,118,000 games/sec

Board: Tc 8s 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.346% 42.20% 01.15% 34255 933.50 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 56.654% 55.50% 01.15% 45058 933.50 { 77+, AcKc, AdKd, AhKh, AcQc, AdQd, AhQh, AcJc, AdJd, AhJh, AcTc, AdTd, AhTh, Ac9c, Ad9d, Ah9h, KcQc, KdQd, KhQh, KcJc, KdJd, KhJh, QcJc, QdJd, QhJh, QTs-Q9s, JcTc, JdTd, JhTh, Jc9c, Jd9d, Jh9h, Tc9c, Td9d, Th9h, T8s-T7s, 96s+, 86s+ }

Thanks all for the input.

I shoved and he ended up having 77. Bricked the rest of the way and lost.

Looking back at it, I think it is a fold (obv easy to say after losing). I hadn't really committed that much to the pot in comparison to my stack, and I didn't have that great of a read on him yet. Maybe it is the inner nit in me, but for someone running at 25/5 (even with a small sample) esp. being on the button, that board is an awfully scary one for me, IMO, and that should make me very wary of any raise (which would probably be the play from a set or a straight, let alone a pair and draw). Dunno.

That being said, it always seems like when I get involved in big pots with relative unknowns, I never respect their hands enough and more often than not end up stacking off. Need to work on that.

Bob

Also need to work on just releasing a nice pocket pair like that. I've had to do it several times and it sucks, but such is life.

No.

Ummm, what? Your pokerstove ranges are waaaaaaaaayyy off. If you have Cardrunners, check out sbrugby's 2nd video on hand ranges. This is more likely what it would look like. It's very unlikely that he holds a queen. And yes JJ is in his range, but would he CC With AA or KK? I put those in anyways. Why would he have QQ also? Work on that stuff bro.

Board: Tc 8s 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.887% 27.30% 00.59% 11622 249.50 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 72.113% 71.53% 00.59% 30449 249.50 { KK+, JJ-TT, 88-77, AsKs, AsTs, KcTc, KsTs, JsTs, Jc9c, Js9s, Td9d, Th9h, Ts9s, Td8d, Th8h, Td7d, Th7h, 8c7c, 8d7d, 8h7h }

I like your range but don't think it is wide enough. We need to allow for the possibility the villian is bluffing, playing a wider selection of suited aces, or from time to time raising a naked 9 to get a more accurate range imo. I'm not saying that it increases our equity a lot just that I think its a mistake to make villains range almost exclusively hands that beat us.

I like your thinking. The call is going to come close to committing us, so we need to examine what we can be beating by the river. There are a TON of hands that call a soft raise and crush us on this flop. And we don't have anything other than an overpair. We have no draws, and limited possibilities of catching a boat. In the face of this particular raise, with a loosey-goosey villain, we need to think about his hand more than our own.



I think a lot of people are weak-tight in the wrong spots. We need to read the boards, the bets, the action that got us to each point in time, etc. Reads, reads, reads -- not just stats. And calling a raise in NL is SO MUCH different from calling a raise in limit. I know chips erode in limit, too, but in NL, they can be wiped out in a single word: "call." And when we've raised light like this, I hate to go to war with QQ -- one pair -- when this flop comes. I hate going to war with one pair, period, after the flop.



They're not "bad." They comment on what they see as poor play. I don't think there's a lot of tighties here, actually. I know I pump the action at a table by a magnitude of 10.



Yes. The board is drawy. A set needs to pressure this board. Besides, when we hit a set, we want to fill the pot.



Beware one pair hands in lightly-raised PF pots.
Beware calling villain agression on middle running boards in lightly-raised PF pots.
Beware QQ in general post-flop.

In these cases, I also take out AA or KK and probably JJ or TT, just because he's going to reraise here with these hands more than half the time, and eliminating one of the overpairs and one of the underpairs from his range seems conservative but fair.

That being said, your assertion that he's more unlikely than the probabilities suggest to have the remaining two queens is ridiculous, as is eliminating AsQs from his range. Why on earth is he unlikely to have the remaining queens? Or AQ? Pokerstove already accounts for the the two queens we hold, so why are we eliminating those hands from his range? That just seems... retarded.