5/10NL Borgata. I know there is prolly much disagreement with how I played the entire hand but since I'm bored at work and have the time I won't really stop at every decision along the way, feel free to kill me however you wish though on any street. Relatively tight/aggro table, Hero has LAG image, ie: a few hands ago 6 limpers, Hero BB: , raises to $71, all fold, show to make benefit image, etc.

Relevant stack sizes:

Hero: $2900
Villain: $3500 (prolly the only other semi-lag player at the table)
Calling Station: $600 (denoted as such because on a K/10/2 rainbow board he called a $400 shove and then a flat call of the shove in front of him and showed down 10/4os and lost to the AK shove and consequently the 22 call of that shove, he is also a big fan of the pf raise-call/flop fold brand of hold them as by my estimation he has lost about half his starting stack doing this repeatedly)

2 folds, Hero (UTG +3):

Hero open raises to $40. Calling station (immediate left) calls, Villain (to stations immediate left) calls, all others fold.

Pot: $135

Floop:

Hero bets $80

Calling station calls, villain raises to $300. This raise did not jive with villain's past MO and I thought there was a very good probability they thought I was c-betting with 2 pretty ones (or I guess any 2) that missed and decided to be frisky. I really didn't want to play for stacks though at this point and decided to play it safe and re-evaluate on the turn, putting them on either something like 77 and the raise was a genuine I think I'm ahead right now flop raise or something like a big ace which was a float raise. I prolly should raise here, meh, I'm a nit.

Hero calls: $220 more, calling station folds.

Pot: $735

Turn:

Ugh. I know, I know, I'm good at putting myself in these spots. OOP and such an awful card, I thought about repping AK here with a $400 bet or something but when the card hit I noticed villain looking through the turn for an eternity which was not what I had seen in similar pots where they fired out so I decided to check OOP and see what villain did. I thought for sure they would rep AK and put me in a terrible spot but they also checked.

Pot: $735

River:

Nice card. Value bet? I figured a $300-$400 value bet seemed about right but after deliberation I didn't think any of the villain's holdings would flat call a value bet here and in fact I would put myself in a terrible spot if they came over the top and played a set of set of 2's rather sneakily or something. I didn't think 77 or whatnot calls a value bet here and I obv. something like AJ/AQ doesn't either. A10 possibly but meh. I decided my best play was to check the river and hope a missed ace or a middle pair fires out a half pot bet or something which I'm immediately calling obv. I check, villain thinks for close to half a minute and checks back. I show QQ, they muck. I was curious but I didn't want to be the cacque and figured someone else would nazi a showdown flip from the dealer. They didn't.

I miss value? I figure if I raise the flop they prolly fold anyways the way the hand shook out and I didn't think I was getting called by a worse hand on the river, but not certain and was not a fan of putting myself in a situation to call off my stack after a bizarre river raise.

I think all the math is right but I'm not good at that.

I think it all plays OK except the flop bet was a little light. Once you called, it slowed the villain waaayyy down, which means he probably did hold AT or something like it --- QsTs meybe looking to pick up a combo draw on the turn? Anyway, I still bet the K on the turn, maybe slowing down a little bit to a half pot bet. A bet on the turn probably folds the villain. All in all, no sense getting smart with the other decent sized stack ... your target in this game is the calling station's $600, and when he bowed out, I don't mind slowing down. Nice hand.

And yes I know this is pseudo-posting results but since there are many problems with the hand and we still don't know what villain held, etc, etc...

well you're only beaten by sets, a K or AA. I think we can rule out really all of these hands, it would just be a really wierd line to not bet the turn with any of these holdings. It looks like you're most likely up against a T or a pair 66-99. I think a smallish value bet gets paid off by AT,QT type hands often enough to make it a good bet.

This is why I really thought the probability was better that if I check the river I'd be getting my value by calling what I figured would be a villain's bet but I guess I didn't give them enough credit that they would also realize that line would be wacky and instacalled. Which it would have been.

The villain could be trying to isolate the calling station with the flop raise.

Also, unless you put him specifically on KT or some weird bluff like KJo, the K on the turn doesn't change anything and is not a bad card for you. The Ace on the turn would've been a bad card.

The river is a great card and you should be betting the river for value here a lot, like, almost always I think. I mean, you're kinda stuck becuase you're almost sure that his hand like 88 or 99 or JTs and he probably can't call much of a bet, but also that he'd never bet if you check to him.

I'd consider throwing out something stupid looking like $200 on the river becuase he'll probably laugh and call that, but not much more. I guess what I'm saying is that there really isn't much value left in this hand.