1/2 Live

Villain is pretty new to the table. Has about $300 (max buy-in) and seems to be playing pretty tight. Haven't seen him showdown a hand yet though he's pulled a few uncontested.
Hero has him covered.

couple limpers, Hero has AQs in LP and makes it 10, villain calls in BB, limpers fold.

Flop JT8r ~25 in the pot

Villain bets 10, Hero calls

Turn blank ~45 in the pot

Villain bets 15, Hero calls

River Q, ~75 in the pot

Villain checks, Hero bets 25, Villain raises to 50 straight, Hero ??


My thoughts on the river are that villain likely leads if he makes his str8 here. Is the value bet ok here? Too small? Once villain c/r's the river this is a fold, correct?

I don't value bet the river unless he's shown himself to be a real donk, and even then it's extremely thin.

If he's raising the river for value you're beaten, unless he has specifically KQ or AQ and is looking for the absolute thinnest value bet possible. Seems like a pretty easy fold.

I would check on river. Those bets on the flop and turn seemed like he wanted to bet the draw but not invest too much money in case he got raised out. He might have something like 89.

What do you expect the villian will call a bet with on the river that you beat? Maybe KQ as that would have given him OESD + overs which may have lead to the weak betting on earlier streets.

Plz check this river.

Call and expect to see a nine most of the time.

FYP.

There's a 10% chance you're ahead, and you're being asked to double your investment in this hand on one card. There's no way to call this river unless you have awesome metagame potential here. (Awesome metagame potential is a table full of rich people who are drunk and committed to playing for the next 5 hours.

I never ever ever bet the river. I think it is pretty awful.

wow


check behind on this river 10x out of 10... you should be jumping for joy you actually get to show down TPTK for free in this spot, you might actually win... instead you kinda turned it into a bluff... literally NO HAND you beat calls you ever... if anything you're representing the 9 yourself... you did just flat the flop & turn & then bet the river once the blatantly obv straight draw got there...




as played instafold


you beat like AJ / KQ & pretty much nothing else... & i can't see anyone check min raising either of those holdings...