simo_8ball
Thursday, October 4th, 2007, 9:10 AM
QUOTE (bdc30 @ Sunday, September 30th, 2007, 5:01 AM)

I'll say up front, I already know the results of the hand, so take that fwiw.
Folding the flop is pretty bad. UTG+1 potted preflop. Flop came 3 diamonds, including the Ace and Queen. For UTG+1 to have "the nuts" here, he's gotta have the King, obviously, and it would have to be in some kind of a wrap draw hand, like KQQJ, KKQJ, KQJJ, etc, with two of those being diamonds. (one would think)
On the flop, when the button goes all in, put yourself in the shoes of UTG+1 and think of how you'd play it with the uber-nuts. Do you raise, thus pushing out your only opponent left that has money behind, OR do you flat call and let out some rope to the other player. UTG+1's raise here screams of trying to isolate him against the button, and limit his potential loss to what he already has in the pot.
When we get checked to on the turn, I think we can be fairly certain at this point that he doesn't have the nuts, so Bud puts in a nice little bet to at least make him pay to draw if he has a set and wants to try and hit one of his 10 outs. I would have preferred a bit bigger bet here, as the less than half pot bet gave him pretty close to the correct odds (getting about 3.75/1 to draw to a 4.25/1 shot -- ballparked) $35 - $40 would have done the trick I think.
At the river, I like the check down in position. We have a hand with a lot of showdown value in a gigantic pot at this point. We don't want to risk getting check/raised off of it.
All in all, NH.
^^Tru dat