tskillz187
Wednesday, September 19th, 2007, 5:30 PM
QUOTE (Royal_Tour @ Wednesday, September 19th, 2007, 6:16 PM)

i lead this flop like 90% of the time. unless i'm against a lag tard.
i mean, results based u got em all in anywas, but in this spot. u pray he has an over pair and comes over the top at which point i smooth call and c.r.a.i. the turn.
If he has an overpair I would just check/call then c/r turn and he'd probably be pretty committed at that point. Plus, I had the history of check calling and then check folding his turn bet, so I was hopeful that he would give me the same line again.
The fact that I hadn't led at him once made me not want to, I finally hit I'd like to bloat the pot against him. That is until he checks behind and I'm like WTF? Once he checks behind I almost completely disregard JJ+ and I thought from his habitual c-betting that this was an auto bet with overs.
The check to me meant flush draw, combo draw, set. This was reinforced by my turn bet getting raised. Although I thought a minimal part of his range might be random AJ holdings where he was being stubborn.
I didn't post it because I'm thinking about folding ever. I posted because I was trying to think of the best play on the turn if I think he could be on a possible bluff, or if he has a draw. If I shove on him he's getting very close to the right odds if he has a combo draw. Basically I timed down on the turn deciding whether or not to shove/reraise or to call and then check river and hope he bluffs a blank.
The problem with me just calling turn is if river does come club it makes it very hard for me to call a river bet. Also to get value I need him to bluff the river at me, or for me to value bet it and hope he calls with a hand I beat (I don't know if that hand exists).