PokerStars Game #12062757944: Tournament #61211671, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2007/09/14 - 22:09:47 (ET)
Table '61211671 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: SKYV1985 (1550 in chips)
Seat 7: litlebullet (7440 in chips)
Seat 9: Diesel4444 (4510 in chips)
SKYV1985: posts the ante 25
litlebullet: posts the ante 25
Diesel4444: posts the ante 25
SKYV1985: posts small blind 200
litlebullet: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to litlebullet [8c 9h]
Diesel4444: folds
SKYV1985: raises 1125 to 1525 and is all-in
litlebullet has timed out
litlebullet: folds
litlebullet is sitting out
litlebullet has returned
Diesel4444 said, "????"
SKYV1985 collected 875 from pot
SKYV1985: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 875 | Rake 0
Seat 1: SKYV1985 (small blind) collected (875)
Seat 7: litlebullet (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: Diesel4444 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

if i fold here and shove any two next hand I can still keep 3rd place in and try to milk something more out of second, that was running through my mind a little bit, but that kind of thinking is prob. way too advanced here...

I'd fold too...

Yeah, you have a nice chip lead - why would you risk that lead just to give yourself a slightly bigger cushion going into heads-up play? I see no reason at all to get involved in this hand with such weak cards (I wouldn't even call it a borderline hand). Losing will bring you down just below 6000 chips, only 1500 ahead of 2nd place, and will bring the shorty up over 3000. Folding will keep things pretty much as they are, which is very good for you.

Shoving any two on the next hand, I wouldn't call that advanced strategy at all, its probably not even close to proper strategy. You'll have a desperate stack in the blinds on the next hand, you can be a little selective.


Edit: I read that wrong I guess, shorty will be on the button next hand, and you'll be faced just against the 2nd place guy, yeah I like shoving any two cards if short folds.

I did an ICM calculation to confirm my earlier thought that folding is correct.

Equity if Hero folds = 39.1%

Equity if Hero calls and wins = 54.2%

Equity if Hero calls and loses = 36.1%

Breakeven win probability = 16.6%

The only range we are behind by this amount is a pocket pair higher than 9:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

51,369,120 games 0.005 secs 10,273,824,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.619% 16.43% 00.19% 8441550 95238.00 { 9h8c }
Hand 1: 83.381% 83.20% 00.19% 42737094 95238.00 { TT+ }

Clearly the shortie's range is wider than that, perhaps something like this:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

397,254,528 games 0.005 secs 79,450,905,600 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.898% 34.51% 00.38% 137109214 1523212.00 { 9h8c }
Hand 1: 65.102% 64.72% 00.38% 257098890 1523212.00 { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }


This suggests that from an ICM perspective Hero should CALL.

OP - please convert your hand!

Call me crazy, but isn't the point of accumulating a big stack to make it so you don't have to play garbage like 89 in a marginal situation?

Look at it from a different perspective: Why call when we got the worst of it? Look beyond this hand: the shorty gaining chips is actually +EV for you, since the other players is now concerned with cashing for the minimum, and you can now push the table around a bit. That = your +EV situation.

I'm all for putting pressure on someone else when you are holding junk like 89, but it's downright silly to be calling off chips to be the eliminator when having two smaller stacks scared of cashing small is a better situation anyways, imho.

No, the opposite is true. You have a big stack so you can gamble with relatively low risk. Calling is the right play here because you are getting decent odds and knocking out your opponent would give you a 2-1 chip advantage heads up. The other stack isn't too far behind you in chips.

Really?

I'm all for raising it up with 89, but calling with it seems like a pretty weak play, unless you got both players in the hand and it's not a significant portion of your stack. I'd still rather give him that pot and take 2 of the next 3 away PF.

It's not a weak play, it's an odds play. You are getting good odds to take out an opponent and set yourself up for a win. If you lose, you can steal pots in position.

1125 to win 2200ish.. Isn't that just under 2 to 1? Is there enough trash hands that have us dominated here to make this marginal? Are we factoring in the implied odds of the other players thinking you'll defend you blinds with ATC for the rest of the way?

I think it's a call. Monix did some crazy numbers breakdown, but I think the main point to stress is that I want to be calling here if I can (i.e. I want the numbers to favor a call, which they do), not folding. Regarding the discussion ^^^ right above me, I agree that with a big stack one of the major advantages is that we can take these coinflips which won't really hurt us but will kill our opponents if we win. This is what I mean by I want to be calling if I can.

I think we can put villain on basically any two here, or at least like top 70-80%, so we are getting good odds to call. I haven't plugged it in to pokerstove or whatever but I think it's clear. We're what, like 45% against Ax (with X lower than 8)? He's pushing such a wide range and it hurts us so little that we should call.

Regarding the argument that we might do well to fold and preserve some sort of bubble fear out of the 2nd stack, I think that that's unnecessary here. That comes much more into play if you're 4-handed or whatever (actually on the money bubble), but here you don't want to let the short-stack double up without even having to see a showdown, and if you fold here he will have added 50% to his stack with no risk. In other words, villain here should have basically no fold equity against you (since you're calling with 98 and probably worse), but if you fold then he will increase his stack size to the point where he probably does have fold equity against you. Basically you don't want to let him back in to the game without at least taking a shot at eliminating him.

On the bubble this would be very close.

Given that you have made the top 3, I think it's an easy call.

How can you say it won't hurt Hero? Even if we let shortie win this pot he'll still be in dire straits and Hero will maintain his dominant chip lead at the table. Losing the hand will change the situation quite a bit - Hero's lead will be cut and shortie will have a bit more breathing room. As Cappy suggested, I can understand using your stack to pressure other players with weak cards but I see no reason to call off 1500 chips with such mediocre cards. There will certainly be other opportunities to take shortie out with better cards than 98o. Hero already has a strong lead in the chip race and is in a good spot to win - why jeopardize this to get heads-up with a slightly bigger lead?

We're only calling 1100, and I believe that we're getting good pot odds to call against villain's range, and since we're already itm we shouldn't pass up a +ev opportunity.



This was my main point though:

Except that taking a shot at eliminating him may actually have a bigger chance of letting him back in the game. Giving him this pot will not let him back in the game. It will take him up to about 2100 chips - with blinds at 200/400/25, that's an M of 3 and an effective M of even lower.

I guess this is one of those situations where the ICM advice just seems counter-intuitive to me.

How can you say that? You fear him enough to fold getting 2:1 against a wide range while holding likely 2 live cards, when even losing leaves you a substantial chip lead. Now knock 400 off your stack, and add 500 (1/3) to his, and tell me how he's not in the game? He's not in the game NOW because he has no fold equity, and even doubling leaves him a substantial dog. If you fold, he's not "getting back in the game"... he's in the game already because his ultra-short stack has fold equity against weak-tight opponents.

Good point about him gaining fold equity, I didn't think of it that way.

But I don't think losing leaves Hero with a substantial chip lead. His lead would be less than 1500 chips, which isn't that big at blinds of 200/400.