I've been sitting here for about 2 hours and haven't done anything special. I'd say the same about the villain. He seems to be a competent player who hasn't done anything unusual yet.

2/5 NL.
Villain - $1200
Acid - $575 or so

Tightish woman UTG raises to $15 (smallish for the table) and I make the standard call in MP1 with J 8 . MP3 calls and the BB (villain) calls too.

Flop ($60) 4 players

J 8 3

Villain checks, UTG checks, I bet $25, MP3 folds, Villain calls, UTG folds.

Turn ($110) 2 players

J 8 3 (A )

Villain checks, I bet $70, he c/r $150 more to $220. I think a long time and call.

River ($550) 2 players

J 8 3 A (2 )

Villain shoves. It's $320 more for me to call. Comments on all streets welcome.

Given the C/R on the Turn and the Shove on the River, I am giving the Villain credit for a real hand. Perhaps Top Two? Without any additional data, I'd have to get off this. What do we beat besides Ax?

have you seen him semi bluff? Pretty tough call... I would think you would have seen him go overboard with a single pair since you have been at the table for so 2 hours.

Probably play it the same and fold the river. If we've seen villain check-raise the turn with something like Th9h, we could get it in there, but since there's no precendence for that, I prefer the call. That said, it's tough but not impossible to fold the turn.

I think I bet a bit more on the flop with half the table in the pot. Despite the board being somewhat non-scary, I don't really like betting less than half the pot unless you feel that if you bet weakly you might get raised by someone. I'd probably bet $45 or more.

Other than that, I think I'm playing it the same and tanking the river before I fold.

I don't think we can call turn and not call river. I think once you make the decision on the turn you have to call on the river.

I think we should fold the turn though, I think he could have something like 33 or AJ very easily here, I doubt he has a worse two pair hand that he's value betting, so he is either semi-bluffing a draw, and then following it up with a full out bluff, completely crazy, or he has you beat.

Since we have no reason to believe it's either of the first two I think it's a fold. Though in real time I'd probably either shove on the turn or call turn and fold river.

That's pretty much what I told Mr. Knight via IM before going out for a couple drinks. I would think this is almost always A8, 33 or T9 (possibly hearts), but only the latter two if I have evidence that the player is tricky. Without that evidence, I would think A8 here quite a bit.

That said, sitting at the table, I'd probably find a call because I FLOPPED TOP TWOS!

This was pretty much my thought. The river doesn't really change anything. If we call the raise on the turn you have to put villain on AK or AQ. We still beat those hands. So if I'm going to call the raise on the turn I can't fold the river when a 2 peels off.

If villain seems like a fairly tight player and hasn;t tried any moves I'd consider folding the turn. But it's certianly not an easy fold.

I talked to Cobalt about this and he said that I can be considering calling with J8 here because of the good pot odds. Although I'm getting 3-1, I think it's important to realize that there really cannot be any hands that the villain is value betting that I beat. Therefore, we kind of have to come to the conclusion that he's got me crushed or was drawing on the turn and missed. If we're gonna call based on pot odds, that kind of means that the villain, who hasn't done anything out of line/elaborate yet, will be making this play as a semibluff turned full bluff at least 1/4 times.

The only super draw out there is the T9hh, which makes up exactly one combination in a range of 33, A3, A8, AJ and I guess we can throw in JJ and 88 as well, although having case cards like that is always less likely. I guess there's a possibility that he decided to go nuts with just the naked T9, but aside from that, there really aren't any other options here.

I don't think AK/AQ should be included in the range at all here.

Looking over the HH, one hand I hadn't considered was J x . The villain could've had that hand, raised the turn as a semibluff and then realized that his hand had no showdown value and then shoved the river. This actually seems the least likely of the possibilities, but it's something more to consider.

In the OP you said "I think a long time and call" for the turn. What are you thinking about? I mean, I would have assumed you would have thought about the river play when he's going to shove at you almost every time. I really think the decision here is turn based, I don't know if you are arguing against that or not. But once you call the turn, you can't fold the river with your odds IMO.

I guess Jxhh could be in the range, but man, you're playing some very dangerous poker trying to widen up a range for a player that we haven't seen do anything like this before.

I feel like on the turn folding > calling = raising

I'm actually not very sure where I stand on the betterness scale of calling:raising that turn. So what was the thought process on the turn?

Mine would have been something like "Motherfucker just fuckin raised me, I have fucking two pair. What a fucking douche. Well, fuck him." At this point I wouldn't even think of which play was best but my mouth would say either raise or call and I'd have no control over which it said.

tough hand

I would like to know why you bet so little on the flop. I think a stronger bet would define the villians hand better.

I am torn between calling and folding here. The thing that is throwing me off is the small flop bet. I discard AJ cause I think that raises the flop. I actually discount most hands containing a J unless its something like J9. I think A8 easily calls the flop bet and plays the turn the same way. 33 could call behind the flop and play the turn the same way.

I know you may not like this but as played I might have to check behind on the turn.

I wouldn't rule out any heart draw that has a reason to call the flop. He can easily interpret your bets as probes.

How about heart draw plus gutshot? K Q , 7 9 , or Q 9 .

The thing is, he got a decent price on the turn if he had a lot of outs. Especially with a hand like K Q where he might think that he has anywhere between 12 to 15 or more outs depending on my my hand, why is he raising with those and risking having to put his whole stack in on the turn?

Is he really splashing around w/ the goofy backdoor gut shot hands?

A8 seems like a good bet. 33 as well. I'd lead the flop harder for sure. Probably frustration call the turn and fold the river. I can't figure out a hand that makes that play that you're ahead of besides 109hh and if so, well played villian.

Whatever the villain has, I think we can all agree that he played it horribly!

I think you have to call here, although you should have the best answer out of all the responses because you have the advantage of sitting at a live table. I woulda tried to engage him in conversation on the river to see if hespoke in like choppy sentences, you know couldn't flow with the conversation. I would also take time on the river decision and see if he does anything at all to persuade me one way or the other, but im just a lowlimit online player, but maybe you could pick something up.

I think just looking at the betting line though, we kinda set this hand up for a super strong hero call, and if he's got a solid image and knows you have a solid image, the way you played the hand looks more like a scared jack, or just anything scared, esp when you said you took a long time to call on the turn, if he is observant, he might try to push through alot of hands here, I think caro says something along the lines, when an opponent shows more hesitation then normal, you should usually try to bluff more in that spot.

I dont think he's even got a hand to value bet here that you can beat, it feels like the nuts or a bluff situation. So I think it has to be completely read dependent, but Ithink if you aren't sure, I dont mind paying off the bet, mainly just looking at the betting line, sure its 33 sometimes, A8 sometimes, but also the c/raise semibluff and you seemingly scared in my mind gives the villian more opportunity to pull this sick bluff off and I would think a lot of solid players are capable of that line.

Yeah, unless it turned out to be some elaborate bluff since it has the forum and the hero fairly convinced that it beats J8.

Because you're playing your hand like you don't have anything. He can represent an ace on the turn and then continue to bluff if he misses.

I don't think I call this turn unless I plan to call the river bet.

Thats the first thing I thought when I read the post too. I probably play like I nit too much onthe turn, but Ifold to c/raises alot with semi-strong hands if I know i'm not going to be able to get a great read on the villian. if I'm not sure what they are capable of I dont mind just letting it go, but I do think if you are going with the hand, then the river bricks, u just gotta grit your teeth, call and see if he's got it or not.

Why can't you call the turn and fold the river?
Why can't you make him shove the rest in on the river with the knowledge that you might have a set of 8s or aces up?
I think folding the turn regularly here becomes very exploitable if you're only calling with aces up and sets and stuff, but I don't think that calling the turn in any way shape or form commits you to a river call. They are separate streets and you gain more and more info as you move along with which to make better decisions.

That sounds good too. But i wouldn't count his river shove as more information that he has a hand, becuse we are still wondering about his capability to continue with a bluff, so I would think if you aren't sure on the turn, that this river action isn't going to help you anymore, which is why I like making the decision onthe turn. So I guess if you are calling the turn to gather more information on the river, and you don't get it, then do you have to stack off here to see his hand? And if you fold the turn, you do so with knowledge that he's not capable of pulling this type of move?

I'm just glad I get to play this hand on the forum like this and wasn't put to the test with chips in front of me because this hand has me completely thrown off.

Would you say that you normally will call off your chips ifyou didn't pick up a read on this river, or you would just let it go because he kept firing?

Suppose we're the villain with one pair. Is our line on the river check/call or check/fold? I'm just not so convinced that I know anything sufficiently definitive when he bets the river.

On the turn? Check/call if he thinks it's good. Check/fold if not. I can't see this being 1 pair very often at all.

I usually bet pot with two pair that fall in the middle of the deck like 7-J on the flop. Reason is that you know the board is probably bringing an over on the turn or river that you're not going to like. Ace on the turn is a devastating card, because you know as well as I do that the villain could have very well call a second pair or a kicker pair with the A, and now hit a better two pair. Getting check-raised in this situation with this holding, I probably muck unless I have an awesome read.

Really? Villain has us contemplating either an awful call or a horrible fold.

I meant his line with one pair on the river. You do think he has one pair sometimes, right? Otherwise I'm really lost on the turn play.

Why does he ever have one pair on the turn unless it's Jxhh? You think he floats OOP with AK/AQ there and then raises the turn with it? That seems really odd.

Harumpf.

Well, no I don't think that. I thought you did because you called.

OK, suppose he's either beating us on the turn or he has a draw. He never check raises with a made hand that we beat.

If he's beating us already, then we don't want to call the turn for 4 outs.
If we're ahead AND he never bets the river with a busted draw, then clearly we want to raise.
If he semi-bluffs the draw on the turn and occasionally bets the river, then we might call/call.

So I don't understand why you're calling the turn and then contemplating a fold on the river.

Edit: You're taking the river bet as evidence that he doesn't have a draw. So I guess it's possible that this is the best line with those assumptions and the right range for him. There might need to be some math here.

This is my exact line of thought. I feel like I've been trying to say exactly this!

I also disagree with Naismith on Villain playing it horribly, I think he played it fine with either draw or a better hand honestly.

tough decision. At first it seems like an easy fold. But is also a golden bluff opportunity if he was on the 910, esp if there hearts. Think if you are him. He prob puts you on like j10/jq ish type hand and when the ace falls its a beautiful opportunity to rep the ace and make you fold your now second pair.

Also i have seen people do this with AK. Their line of thinking is something like "I have AK but im not re raising cuz it never falls" then on the flop "only 25? thats tiny bet , i still have 6 outs." On the turn and river"OMG i hit a pair with AK! i have the nuts i gotta get all in"

But this also reaks a8 or 33. So id make his range 33,a8.88,Ak,and a draw draw. from there, its just math and any read you can get off of him

OK, so let me rough this in and see if it goes anywhere.

Acid Knight thinks he can call the turn for pot odds, because the villain's range includes draws. His break-even win percentage is 27%. For the purposes of this exercise, assume that the villain never fires a second bullet with a missed draw on the river.

When he's behind, he's drawing very thin. He's also behind more than he's ahead, so a raise is -EV.



When the villain is drawing, the hero is a 3:1 ish favorite.



Let d = probability the villain is drawing
Let p = pot size
Let b = bet hero has to call

cost to call = ( EV when drawing ) x (probability villain in drawing) + (EV when villain's ahead) x (probability villain is ahead)

b = (3/4)pd + 0.08p(1-d) (I thought I could neglect the second term, but this turns out to be a poor approximation.)
b = 3/4pd + 0.08p-0.08pd
b = (3/4 -0.08)pd + 0.08p
(b-0.08p) / [(3/4 - 0.08)p] = d
(150- 0.08 x 550) / [(3/4 - 0.08)550] = d
0.29 = d

So if the villain is semi-bluffing more than 29% of the time, then a call is better than a fold.

If the villain is drawing a bit more than half the time, then it becomes better to raise than call.

Fixed numerous mistakes in this post.

Even before he fixes errors, I just want to say that David Nicoson is The MAN!

Just wanted to reiterate what AK said here. The more action we force villain to take, the more information we can gather. Yeah, he's probably going to shove in on the river...but if we know he never does this without more than a pair, we can more confidently fold at that point. If he might do it strong or on a bluff, we should be able to gauge his reactions a bit. As AK noted, I told him that do think it's going to be extremely tempting to call the river once we call the turn based on odds...and that it might be possible to fold the turn...but I don't think it's entirely unreasonable to call the turn and fold the river.

We left out QT for two-overs and a gut-shot (and perhaps a 3-flush) on the flop and then double-gutted on the turn.

David.

Some friends and I are considering invading a Middle Eastern countr... ummmm... playing a risky hand. We have the best trained and equiped arm... errr... hand. However there is a slight chance that public opinio... uhhhh... the villian could turn against us on the River...

A little help?

Thanks,

W.

If I'm the villain, I'm making a semi-bluff only because I read the hero as weak. Otherwise, I'm going to draw and cackle to myself about my hand's back-door goodness. When the hero flat calls on this board, my evaluation changes but not that much.

For those times that I do semi-bluff the turn, a very high percentage of the time I will bluff on the river.

It's possible for a Very Clever Player to make a little money with call/fold with a good river read. So I have to concede on that point. I don't think I fall into that category, though. It requires a precise a read for a small gain.

Can we talk combinations for a second?

33 2
JJ 1
88 2
AJ 6
A3s 3 (I think he folds A3o mostly. This makes a big difference, so think on that a little.)
J 8 1

15 combinations


The "behind" range is a little harder to pin down. Some of the possibilities are iffy, so I'm arbitrarily counting only some suits for some ranks.

Combo Draws:

T 9
T 9
T 9
7 9
K Q
Q T
Q 9
Q T

Jack with hearts:

J T
Q J
K J

Big aces:

A K
A K
A K
A Q

Also 15 hands.

This "behind" range is a 3:1 dog, just like the first one.



So if he always semibluffs the turn with these hands and shuts down on the river, we have a clear call. We don't really expect that, though.

We can say that if the villain check raises from the behind range 29%/50% = 58% of the time that we should call the flop.

I'm pretty sure that implies an unwarranted precision. When he has a good draw, does he bluff the turn half the time?

Oh, I was the villain by the way.


So, really a lot about this hand was very standard for me.

Preflop with the tightish lady leading UTG and getting a couple of callers, I call this preflop like 100% of the time because people were deep (and the guy with J8 had the fewest chips) and the UTG lady has a narrow range.

On the flop, his bet is really weak. I am not sure whether I read it for strength or weakness just yet, but I like my hand so I decide to call and see what happens on the next streets. We wind up getting HU.

On the turn, I check and when he bets $70, it really feels like he wants the hand to be over right there. I am unsure whether he can even beat the A from his bet. I decide to c/r becuase it's exactly how I would play any number of really strong hands and even a few semi-bluffs if I felt the timing was right. When he thinks and then just calls the turn, I put him like 80-90% on J8 for 2 pair becuase I didn't think he'd call with a lesser hand and I could tell that he didn't love calling.

The river came out and I pushed. The hero/villain (guy with J8) thought for a very long time and then finally said "nice hand, you got me" and called.

Now what am I holding?

A3 would definitely be in my range here if it were suited.

The big aces are NOT in my range since I'm really never going to float that flop OOP with that hand.

The QT suited gutshot isn't in the range for me either.

And lastly, FWIW, I'm not really gonna c/r the turn with the J x in this case.

So is Naismith the hero?

No, but he knew what really happened in the hand, so he was just being an ass.

That leaves just 5 or 6 combinations. The hero's turn call is a mistake if he knows that information.

Because you posted it, I'll say T 9 . If I know I'm playing Acid Knight, I will pay off this river, at any rate.

Irregardless of what I have, I feel that it was a terrible call with the J8 on both the turn AND river. Since he knew nothing about my play except what he'd seen at the table, there was no reason to think I'd gotten out of line anywhere and especially not to the extent that I'd make an elaborate semibluff like this, which is obviously all that he can beat. I feel the call on the turn is made better if he's folding to river shoves, but it's still bad.

I just feel that without some previous history that someone can make a play like this, it's best to just give them credit for the hand they're repping and fold if you can't beat it. I mean, everything about his river call says he knows it's a bad call, which just confirms that it's a spot that he shoudln't be calling in.

I think most people agree with you. But at the table in real time it's a tough fold to make. It's especially scary to me once I correctly peg him on J8, to fire that river because I'm not all that confident most villains will fold J8 there. I would play this hand the same with set, top two and be hopeful to get called by J8.

It shoudln't be any tougher at the table than on the forums here. He goes over the hand. He realizes that he really can't beat anything here except an elaborate bluff. He should fold. He knows this. He decides to call anyway.

I mean, the thing is, if you're calling with J8 here, knowing what my range is, then technically you should also be calling with JTo or a pair of 6s. You'd instafold with either of those hands, yet the really have the same value as J8 here since they beat any hand I might have been semibluffing with on the turn and they lose to any real hand that I'm value shoving.

It's mostly the same as calling with 66, but then the villain's overs are outs as well.

I think a lot of players are going to make this call, regardless of your image. I'm sure you play some good players at this level, but you're also playing because these players do make calls when they shouldn't right? Was villain someone that you do know? If not, how can you know that he goes through any type of thought process like this? His thought process could be "hey I have 2 pair, he might have a better hand but I'll never know unless I call."

He seemed to play well in the 2 hours I was playing with him.