If you can't honestly come to the conclusion that people play better theoretically than they do in reality you're going to be very grumpy. It would take a very solid 2-5 player to not let ego get in the way and properly process the info you are sending in real time.

I hate "Oh, you have me beat, I call"

The thing I love most about this game is making a read and sticking with it and having some sort of reasons for that read, whether they happen to be completely wrong or not. So I hate it when someone views your complete line, thinks for sure they are beat, and then pays off your bluff.... well Iguess i dont hate it when Im holding the nuts, but you know what I mean.

I was going to respond again with saying I thought about villian's line even more, and without a read I can't put in a call on the river, since we know you are the villian, I would say you played this hand like a set of 3's or something big pretty perfectly. Now, I would admire the hero call if in fact he did it because he gave you a fair enough of a chance of semi bluffing, or he picked up a tell on you, but from the way it sounds, he really thought he was beat which is a poor way to play the hand. I only really advocate calling if we can put you on a bluff enough of the times.


All in all, I really like how you played this semi bluff, and I've done that many times before to, I'm still not even close to where I need to be in bluffing my opponents because I've had many times where i put them on a weak uncallable hand, and I really believe I can push them off their hand, but then they call, making my read of them off because even if you read their hand is weak, you also need the read that they are capable of laying it down. And from your read on him in the op he seemed like he was capable, but Iguess he wasn't. tough break man.

I love it. Even if I'm bluffing, I still like it because it means they're an idiot.

Also, who said I lost this hand? Nobody knows what I have.

Tim

I'm not saying that people play as well in real time as they do in theory. I'm just saying that this one isn't that hard to figure out. He knew he thought he was beat when he called. That means he should've laid it down.

I told you that shit in confidence!

or

Don't ever use that tone with me again.

I can't decide which reply I like more.

I don't even think I agree with this. He was getting 3:1 on the call as either you or Cobalt pointed out. I still don't agree with Cobalt/you that once you call the turn you reevaluate river, the river bricked, nothing has changed. Calling on the turn with the hopes that Villain checks river to you is playing very poorly, I mean that's the ideal person to be playing against. Call, Call, Fold.

"He had to have it to fire the third time." Those people are very easy to convince you have a hand.

Obviously you look to get info on the river or if it completes the draw you can fold, but once it blanks barring a great physical read (one that I can't even describe because I don't know what it is) it's an autocall with J8.

Just because he said something like "I'm beat." Doesn't mean he's sure he's beat his actions and pot odds here certainly speak louder (to his true feelings) than his words.

What do you think I had here?

A8.

And in a crazy twist for the whole forum, I was Villain!!! (sw)

Not A8, although the hand would've played the same.
Not T 9 either.

Judging from this it's probably something like 45o and you bluffed the gutter and got there though

Man, you don't know the huge smile i had when Iread that line, before I saw the sw. I was completelyfooled when acid said he was the villian, but I dont frequent forums much, but I have seen acouple posts where you guys do that crazy switch, and let me tell you, I have enough trouble being tricked at my poker tables, now Im reading posts and being tricked here too,dam you poker.

And I thought acid said he was bluffing earlier, since he still hasn'tsaid the hand, I still am scared of 333 because thats the most obvious line. And I'm not calling onthe river unless Ican pick up tells, which I can't so I fold, you bluffed me.

I guess that explains that atrocious flop bet

Naismith was talking to me on AIM and he's like "I can't believe that people still think that it was you playing the J8 here after they bet $25 on the flop..."

I'd never make that bet. It's about time someone picked up on how bad it is.

I questioned it on page one but I thought you had a reason. You usually do.

I dunno I thought maybe you were inducing a bluff, you know 3rd level thinking.

of course it retarded, but it's acid knight posting it. i'm guessing many of us don't feel qualified to jump in with that particular criticism here.

but yeah, definitely retarded.

Can I get some credit here please?

Seriously?!!? Calling with 45o on the flop? For a naked backdoor straight draw? How bad do you think I am?

I called with 4 5 !!!!

RIVER BLANK MY ASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

He still made a terrible call.

respect for the monkey

LOL.

Your play is so transparent So you got lucky and hit? Cuz you were sure firing your miss on the river and he was sure calling!

Right. I was firing if I missed and his call still would've been terrible becuase the flop bet combined with his turn action made me think he was initially weak and that I could take the pot away. The exact same sequence would've gone down if I had A3, A8, 33, 88, JJ, AJ (maybe I c/r the flop, maybe not) and in special cases like this one, I c/r with a biggish draw (aka 5 high)

SHIP IT

nice float on the flop

If you were 90% sure that he had J8 and you figured that he was a competent player why shove? You knew it would be a terrible call then wouldn't you rather bet a smaller amount that you figure he'd be more likely to call? Not criticizing, but I just want to make sure I understand this. Is it just because of the pot size vs stack size?

Going to the river, yes, I was 90% sure that he had J8.

As far as my bet sizing, I really didn't have a choice. He only had a 1/2 PSB left. There's only one bet that makes sense. It's a losing call with J8 there.

I'm not discussing whether or not I wanted the call, I'm just discussing whether or not his calling is correct and I contend that it's not.

That's why $25 is a retarded bet.

Seems like you hit a set of threes or hit aces up on the turn.

In the spirit of the backdoor flush, here's one I pulled today. This hand pretty much goes against my policy of not semibluffing a maniacal donk, this dude was running at around 54/25, and getting his money in with any piece, basically he was a ticking time bomb at the table. I made the move on the flop because I'm dumb enough to think if he's got nothing he'll fold (i know he's coming with any pair), and i want to show him 6 high because I was on his immediate left and i wanted him thinking I was giving more action then I was. My turn and river were just for value, I still shoulda checked the turn with my read, because reopening the betting gave him the chance to push me off my hand, but anyway, here it is...


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP ($98.50)
CO ($101.50)
Button ($114.75)
SB ($93.15)
Hero ($162.25)
UTG ($105.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6, 7.
4 folds, SB raises to $3, Hero calls $2.

Flop: ($6) 5, Q, K (2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero raises to $9, SB calls $6.

Turn: ($24) 8 (2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero raises to $16, SB calls $13.

River: ($56) T (2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero raises to $36, SB calls $33.

Final Pot: $128



edit: Iguess yours was a backdoor straight, but same concept right

Yo.

If he's not folding, then why on earth are you raising the turn? You literally picked up the best card in the deck for you. If he's not folding at all, he's certainly not folding for your small turn raise.

Also, just FYI in the future, if you're playing against a maniac calling station who won't fold, you really shouldn't be raising flops like that with your hand. You're really not drawing to anything (except backdoor goodness) and you are gonna have a hard time bluffing him out of the hand anyway. Just wait to connect a little better than you did on this flop before you make a move.

I dont know why you are asking me those questions and lecturing about my play when I prefaced the hand with my analysis that covers everything you don't like about the hand.

But I'll repeat it, "shouldn't be raising that flop" -- that was pure advertising with a nothing hand since i was on his immediate left and I wanted him giving me action whenever I wanted it, also add to the fact that the flop is the place where I do have a little FE because he's raising close to any 2 in the blind battles and won't continue with the hand unless he has a piece, which as we know as poker players its hard to flop a piece, annnnd its not such a bad play to go on a pure bluff against a lag once in a while, but you aren't going to make your bread and butter on that play.

The turn I already admitted was purely bad play on my part, anyone can see against this villian that I don't want to jeopardize my draw by reopening the betting.

I thought I made it somewhat clear I wasn't posting my hand for strategic purposes, I was just showing a glorious backdoor hand since it somewhat pertained to the subject of this post, although the betting lines and reads are completely different.

Fold preflop.

Standard

So why is Q T or Q T not in your range? Are you just saying you wouldn't check/raise with these hands? I'm sure you're floating the flop with them if you are with 4 5 .

Q T isn't a hand I'd c/r with. Q T is in the range.

Ok, and to add one last element of confusion to the whole thing, I didn't have 4 5 either. Naismith said that's what I should say that my hand was becuase it makes me look awesome, which is true.

I wouldn't float the flop with that hand against a bettor that I didn't have history with and was only 100+/- BB deep.

The actual hand I held here was T 9 and all statements that I have made about the reasons why I chose to flat call and check raise still hold true. It was funny becuase he thought for a long time on the river. He held his hand up like he was gonna fold it. All of the "I know I'm beat and should fold" signs. He finally slid his chips forward. I say "J8 is good" and he flips over his hand as I muck mine.

Are you sure? I'm expecting this to go on.

[Detectives pull of mask]
Fred: It's Old Man Smith, the caretaker! He's been the villain all along.
Velma: That's what he wants us to think.
Velma pulls off yet another mask.
Shaggy: Why it's Smasharoo!
Smash: And it would have worked, too, if it weren't for you meddling kids and your pot odds!

. . .

Well played.

But seriously. T 9

Because it's sneaky and you expected to get paid if you hit?

Tough break on not having the right read on the villian.

Make you look awesome! LOL. I'm not a miracle worker!

Everyone was calling the river a blank! I wanted to prove them all wrong!

(getting paid by the exclamation point)

I've never seen such a huge attention whore in a thread in all my life. I can't wait til I play a hand so that I can fool you all with the crazy combinations I might actually have.

Muahahahah.

This thread actually got a good strat discussion going.

Not going to reiterate a lot of what was said. I'm in the fold the turn if you're folding a blank river for reasons stated as t-skills. My only thoughts were that A3 and A8 should have been taken out if AK's not floating.

My thoughts on the hand are that I really question bluffing this river. I understand the thought behind the semi-bluff on the turn. You can probably find a fold from a jack here. But I don't think you should be firing into this river when there's no draw to speak of that got there and he's getting 2.5:1 when you put him on a flopped two pair. I'm not trying to argue the merits of folding j8 here, I'm just pointing out that it is a "hero's lay-down" considering you're trying to make him fold to a set or top two pair. Whether he can process exactly what you want him to process is not automatic and he's going to revert to relative strength of his hand a lot. I'm currently scared of monsters under the bed, so I'm folding the turn in his spot right now (w/o much to go off of). So I sort of think the turn call on his part is questionable. I think bluffing into 2 pair on a relatively dry board is worse though. I just don't think you find folds nearly enough here.

These are good points.

I'd like to say that if I had A8 or A3, I'd play it the same way. I definitely would've called the flop and probably c/r the turn and shove the river with them as well.

On the river, it's kind of a crappy spot. If I thought he had aces up, I wouldn't have fired that last bullet.

Part of why I feel this hand should work out enough to make it profitable is the fact that the board is so dry and that hands like AJ, A8, A3 and 33 do make up such a huge portion of my range and he's crushed by all of them. The board is pretty dry (on the flop) so it makes it so much harder to put me on a semibluff here.

FWIW, I think cards that fall on the river that make a fold more likely are any AKQT97 or heart which is about half of the deck. Only a couple of those make me the best hand but the rest of them just complete every single draw or make a bigger 2 pair seem inevitable meaning that even if he chose to put me on a draw on the turn, so many cards in that range complete so many draws, that he now can't really beat anything in my range unless he chooses a really obscure draw (QTo) and calls down when that one hand misses.

I think I was unfortunate to get a terrible river card here that couldn't possibly have affected the hand. I'm still happy with the play though becuase he absolultely thought he was beat when he called. I know I want him folding, but it still means that it was a believable bluff and that he just likes throwing away money.

This is why I think raising > calling for the "hero". He doesn't know what beats him on the river. Of the choices, I think call/fold is the worst.

There are lots of ways he can avoid this situation.

1. Fold preflop. J8s is a marginal hand that he's playing with poor absolute and relative position.
2. Make a bigger bet on the flop. Villain's calling range can be quite big.
3. Make a more aggressive bet on the turn.
4. Check behind on the turn. Call the river.

I think the villain's second barrel is +EV on the river. I think it might be better to make a smaller raise on the turn (100 more? basically a min raise). He's going to have trouble calling with just a jack. Plus you have more ammunition for the river in a smaller pot. As it stands, the hero is confused about your hand. And in both cases he reasons, "Hmm, I don't know what he has. I have two pair and I'm getting a good price. I call."

I agree that I probably am able to turn this from a marginally +EV spot into a substantially +EV spot by making a smaller raise on the turn so I have a bigger bet in relation to the pot on the river OR picking on someone who's a little deeper in chips. This was 100% my fault because I had a hard time seeing his chip stack since I was in seat 8 and he was in seat 3 at the 9 handed table. Honestly, after he called the turn, I was a little disappointed to see he had so few chips. I still thought that all in all, my hand was repped strong enough to even making pushing in that situation profitable.

I think that 5 pages of actual talk about a hand may be a NLHE strat record

I think you ran into a donk flop bet and a donk call.

EDIT: If I'm villain, there's no way I play it like that. I don't make the ridiculously low flop bet and it gets hard to make the turn and river calls. However, hero needs to identify players that make hero calls versus those that can make laydowns. The other night, I got a call of a $150 bet in a $1/2 NL game. Villain held K2 with the 2 pairing the board. Hero held A2 with the 2 pairing the board. YEEEE OW.

Ok, I'll just add a little to this.

If Acid can't have a hand worse than J8 here then his play is exploitable and (eventually) won't get paid off with this line. Every range needs to be balanced. There has to be an occasional hand that villain beats for him to make the call.

In fact, Acid's range should theoretically (if you want to be optimal) make villain indifferent to calling on the river. So, if villain is getting 3:1, he should have the best hand 1/4 of the time. This can be adapted to be exploitive quite simply - if villain is known to make overly tight folds then we should bluff more here, and if villain is known to be a POW then we should bluff less.

Unless we know villain will either 100% call or 100% fold there should be some non-zero bluff% there.

It's part of the G-Bucks idea.

Here's a question, Acid...were you were so sure of the J8 after the turn call that you were going to check/fold a river J/8?

Excellent post, imho.

When we look at the hero's play on the turn, he has to be much more convinced he's ahead. While he playing the the turn he has to expect hands that beat him to bet the river as well. So I think he's really seeing 820:550 = 1.5 : 1. To turn around and fold the river at 2.7 : 1, he has to make a radical shift in his estimation of the Villain's range based on the river bet.

Same action, but villain is dealt A 8 and hero pushes after the C/R.

. . .

Flop ($60) 4 players

J 8 3

Villain checks, UTG checks, I bet $25, MP3 folds, Villain calls, UTG folds.

Turn ($110) 2 players

J 8 3 (A )

Villain checks, I bet $70, he c/r $150 more to $220. Hero pushes. Villain ??