Acid_Knight
Wednesday, September 12th, 2007, 10:07 AM
QUOTE (simo_8ball @ Wednesday, September 12th, 2007, 9:06 AM)

Ok, I'll just add a little to this.
If Acid can't have a hand worse than J8 here then his play is exploitable and (eventually) won't get paid off with this line. Every range needs to be balanced. There has to be an occasional hand that villain beats for him to make the call.
In fact, Acid's range should theoretically (if you want to be optimal) make villain indifferent to calling on the river. So, if villain is getting 3:1, he should have the best hand 1/4 of the time. This can be adapted to be exploitive quite simply - if villain is known to make overly tight folds then we should bluff more here, and if villain is known to be a POW then we should bluff less.
Unless we know villain will either 100% call or 100% fold there should be some non-zero bluff% there.
It's part of the
G-Bucks idea.
This is a really good post.
I think it's important to note that I'm never value-betting a worse hand than J8 here. As shown, I often show up with semi bluffs and maybe total air in some instances. I think the point that I want to make in this hand, and the distinction that makes the villain's call with J8 unprofitbale is that up to that point in the game, he had no reason to assume that I would attempt, let alone be capable of such a bluff like this. I know that brings into play all other assumptions about him not knowing what my range is (would I do this with AQo for example?) and everything, but although I will often be bluffing here >1/4 of the time, nothing about my play so far has given away that possibility.
If we want to make the statement "well, the fact that the villain with J8 doesn't know whether I could be bluffing here or value bettting a worse hand should widen my range in his mind and make him more inclined to call me down." That is fair. With an overall TAGgy image and no bluffs shown down, I think it's hard to profitably make this call with a middle 2 pair against an unknown opponent.