ok. this was 1/2 NL live, and the table was loose and donkey infested. Like when i sat down, i was giggling at how bad everyone was, and how much money they were shoevling.

I just sat down and played 2 hands
hero has 180.
villain 1 covers,
villain 2 covers.

The 2 villains are ultra loose, and call stations. villain on the button has been making hero calls, and min raises like its goin out of style.


hero is SB with KK (hero only played 1 rotation up until now)

2 limps, c/o raises to 10, button calls 10. Hero raises to 35.

folds around to c/o who calls, and button calls. (as expected. they played everyhand)


flop is Kh, 7h, 4c

hero leads out 40... thoughts? little less than 1/2 pot. The 2 guys in question here have been shoveling any type of draw or hand they get.

Here is where i'm torn. should i have bet the pot and left myself with 45, should i have checked? should i have shoveled the flop?

I would play this hand pretty straight forward with the flush draw out there. Bet 2/3 the pot and push the turn I guess. Or if you think it's possible to get called, just shove.

with just a bit over the size of the pot left in your stack, i like either an open shovel or a CRAI if you're pretty sure one of them will bet. seems like if they'll shovel with any draw, they'd probably bet it as well except they might be more inclined to get involved if you initially show weakness. the dream scenario would have CO bet and button raise, which is a lot less likely if you bet. the nice thing about the CRAI is that if either of them puts out a reasonable sized bet, they are committed into calling your c/r push.

anything besides a push or crai, it could easily go call-call with not enough chips left on the turn to do any sort of pricing. i think it might be worse to bet $40 here and risk getting flat called once or twice behind than to check and risk giving a free card.

with the pot to stack ratio being 1:1.5, we really have to be looking for a way to commit ASAP. open push is the safest, c/r is probably second best way. betting less, we really risk committing ourselves on the flop without getting all of our chips in, and then possibly having to get our chips in behind on the turn.

Mark

I either lead bigger or go for C/R. I lead for like $65-70, I think you bet $40 looking to get raised but it also sucks huge when you don't and got them both to call you with great odds. I don't hate it though. I like flopping top set, every option seems fun.

I probably push it to $40 preflop with the caller inbetween. You're betting about 1/3 of the pot on the flop which gives everyone 4-1 to see the next card and is a huge mistake. If they're calling stations, then just bet your damned hand and don't get tricky. Bet $75 on the flop and probably just shovel the turn. You're asking to get beaten in ridiculous ways when you make tiny little bets like that.

dude, the issue is i dont have much money compared to the pot. so if i bet 75 on the flop, my turn bet is going to be 75 also.

So, whatever hand they hold that they can cvall 75 on the flop, they will call 75 on the turn just as quickly.

i'm leaning more towards the CRAI now.

I bet the 40 in hopes i would get raised, I thought for sure the button would take it as a weak c-bet and raise. He thought he was a hero at the table by playing every hand.

I saw your stack size. You still shouldn't be betting that little and giving them 4-1 becuase you're giving them great odds to outdraw you on the NEXT card without having to worry much about implied odds or anything. You imply that they're bad and are calling stations so, just bet strongly and let them make a mistake.

You played this hand perfect. The reraise preflop was obviously right. So the questions is the flop bet. There are 2 very good reasons for betting. The first is that reraising preflop and then checking the flop is too suspicous, represented a hand preflop. The second is these guys are stationgs. Take what you can. Also, I think you bet a good amount. There is no reason to bet huge here. If they are willing to call a pot sized bet, there is a good chance you are going to be able to get all your chips in during the hand anyway. You can bet half the pot, which happens to be about 1/3 of your chips. This is perfect for working your chips in during the hand while maximizing your chances of getting called. Hell, maybe you'll get called all the way by both! If they both fold, then thats just too bad, you probably wern't getting any more from them anyway. Good play!

I'd raise more preflop.

As played, I still bet a pot-committing amount on the flop. At least 85. If they're smart, they'll suspect that the rest is going in on the turn so a lot of numbers are pretty much equivalent to a push. I don't want a hard decision on the turn about whether or not to chase a boat draw.

Not going for CRAI unless I'm positive villains will semi bluff their draws in a 3 way raised pot when checked to. A lot of people will check to take a free card with a straight or flush draw when the pot is multiway. Just bet it out. Bet like 2/3 or half pot to induce a shove. If either has a hand like a gutshot they probably won't bet it out so your basically giving them free cards to pull ahead of you since they're not going to invest any money unless they hit anyways.

bet 2/3 of pot on the flop.... If they are as loose and as bad as you say you will get a call & can shove on the turn. $40 seems so low after your preflop re-raise that alarm bells would be going off in my head if I was one of the villians.

Sorry, but i think that the mini-bet on the flop was not right. So are you saying that its OK to bet pot on the flop, let the flush hit, then get all your money in - so when one of them flips over the 9hTh you throw your arms up and say "Oh well its a cooler, I had a set on the flop"? Nonsense!


The two options would be shoveling and CRAI obviously. The option you choose would be read-dependant here i think. Shoveling depends on whether or not you think these guys are bad enough players such that they will not even notice the fact that you are overbetting the pot. If you think that the moment you shovel, they're gonna say to themselves "oh man i've got a flush draw, i dont care what the betting amount is, i'm gonna go all the way" then you dig that shovel into the table.

But if you think that these guys have an ounce of skill in their arsenal, CRAI. If they're the least bit decent, then shoveling will alert them that you've got a made hand and that they're behind and then they'll dump their draw. CRAI at least will give them some chance to get their foot in the door, at which point you pull them all the way in.

If one of them has 5h6h, then just yell RIGGED, Jesus Ferguson your cards at the dealer's eyeballs and walk out of the room.

They have no skill. I wanted to make sure i get their chips in the middle in this hand.

We cant sit here and say we need to bet bet bet because they might have a FD. we want them to have a FD. they are a 3-1 dog on the flop and almost a 6-1 dog on the turn if its not a heart.

I bet 40 in hopes that if they have anything. anything at all I can shovel the turn and they will be committed.

Now if a heart falls on the turn, am i at fault for only betting 40? we dont want to push anyone off their hand. But many of you will say, we want them to make the mistake by calling without correct odds. IMO who cares. We're not gonna get anything out of it if they call without correct odds. And any bet more than a 1/2 pot commits me to the pot anyways. Which also commits them if they do have a FD.

The goal here is to get all my chips in th middle one way or another. If anyone of them has the case K, or a lower set, or a FD or even air with plans to steal the pot from me it doesnt matter. I have 90bb's and want max value on this hand.

1. I completely agree.

2. Why?

I think we've forgot something here. The 7 and 4 are relatively connected. Straight draws are possible here as well. Another possible draw they could have, another possibility for them to shovel.

they werent good enough to play suited connectors to a re-raise from position to stack me with implied odds.

they were so bad that they played any face card that was suited, any ace. and any PP in this spot. I dont even think they could spell "straight"

I naked flush draw needs roughly 4-1 to improve on the next card. If you get it AI on the flop, you're looking to get about 2-1 to have the right odds. By betting so small, you let anyone with a flush draw play correctly against you by giving them the right price to hit their card on the next street.

Of course you are! You are the one with the made hand. You are the one who should be offering them incorrect prices to draw. If you bet $40, giving them 4-1 to improve on the next card, they make a mistake BY FOLDING a flush draw. You job in a poker hand is to make bets that cause your opponents to make mistakes. Here you are the one making the mistake.


This is totally wrong. Do U C Y? You're saying "I want them in there, calling with the correct odds to outdraw me, beucase how else will I get their money?" If they're gonna call with the wrong odds, you gotta give them that chance. You profit from their mistakes and they profit from yours. Betting 1/3 of the pot on this flop against multiple opponents is a mistake.



Your goal is to get them to make a mistake. If that mistake is shoveling a set into you (inavoidable mistake) or calling too much with a naked draw (avoidable mistake) then you're happy. If you bet 60% of the pot and they all fold, it's likely that nobody really hit the flop anyway.

Ok, u said bet strongly. I bet 2/3 the pot lets say. 80 leaving me with 75 left for the turn. Giving anyone who called the flop 3.6-1 to call the turn.

do you agree to this?

The thing i dont agree with is the "make them make mistakes" part. Obviously we want them to play horribly, but when we know we are such a huge fav over any other hand that we assign them, why can't we play the hand that way?


This may sound silly, but i know i'm way ahead here. I'm not drawing and i want my stack (which is only 90bb's) to double.

The only hand that makes sense to bet 2/3 the pot against would be the FD. But then we assign one of the two villains 1 single range being a hand that holds 2 hearts

we show the villains that we are committed and that they cant see a cheap river either.

like i said before, villain on the button has been making "hero" calls the entire time. calling with middle pairs / pokcte pairs because he thinks everyone is bluffing.

but he cant make any "hero" calls when i bet the flop so strong.

You don't know who's calling and who's folding. Bet your hand on the flop and stick in what you have left. They'll have made a mistake calling the flop in the first place. They'll have had no implied odds and they'll have made the wrong play which will result in you profiting in the long run.

You don't know what they hold. There is a straight draw and a flush draw out there. Yeah, you're likely crushing them, but you siad yourself that they call too much, so just bet your damn hand and make them call you.

You set up the whole hand by saying that they're weak, one makes hero calls and that they're just bad in general. You wouldn't bet this little with any other hand. You wouldn't try and steal the pot with this bet. If you have AK you're betting stronger. If you have AA you're betting stronger. The fact that your bet gives away so much about your hand is a huge mistake in the first place. You have 2 opponents and you have the nuts. If they wanna call with 99 thinking it's the best hand, then let them do that.

Inviting them to draw out on you so that you're slightly more likely to double up is just foolish. Make profitable plays. In this hand, the profitable play is a 2/3 bet on the flop and shovel any turn. Do you really think that their calling range widens that much when you bet a little less? Seriously?

You shoudln't be betting into a multiway pot with the intention of making the flop bet small enough so that a guy can make a "hero" call on you. There's just no reason for it.

it was my 1st orbit in the game.

I watched the two of them play every hand out of the 7 or 8 hands i was there.

(also, the straight might be off. i cant completely recall if it was a 4, or a 3. or even a 2. but it was a rag)

Either way. You should still be betting more here like 100% of the time unless one of them flips over their hand and you see that they're not drawing to anything.

We just can't slowplay boards like this against not just one but two villains who have massive ranges. Its -EV.

It will never be -EV. We arent checking to the river to make a move.

We're never folding this hand by river yet we're giving opponents correct odds to chase by not even betting, thus bad for our expected value?

we are betting.

The idea (if you can call it one) is to make sure i string at least 1 player along for the entire ride of my double up.

Instead of making it a mistake for him to call with a FD, i want to give him a better reason to chase. I win this hand from this flop vs a nut fd 3 out of 4 times.

meaning my "EV" if u wanna call it that is x2 of my investment. I will never lose money in this situation.

NO YOU DON'T!!!!!!! If your bet doesn't offer them worse pot odds, you ****ed up!

Dude, I know you've been playing long enough to understand this. You do not want them to have the right odds to draw you out. You especially do not want them to make a mindless call against you becuase you gave them 4-1 to call and they're like "Oh, wow, I don't even have to worry about implied odds here, this guy gave me the right odds to draw to my flush on the next card alone! I can just fold if he goes all in on the turn and I'm not getting the right odds..."

Also, you win against a flush draw closer to 2/3 times, not 3/4 times.

Better yet, push all in and price two flush draws into calling, and sit back and watch as they eat each others' outs. Even if they do turn their flush, that gives you awesome odds for the board to pair on the river.

Can someone supply the page number from the Theory of Poker:

"I make money when my opponents make mistakes"

Duuude, I know everything you are saying. (kermit, i've read the book, and several others)

Here is what you guys are missing. I want to double up. So where is the difference if the money goes in on both the flop and turn?

If he has a FD His odds dont change just because he gets a better price. KK vs Ah9h on a Kh 7h, 4c board is 75/25 me.

Obviously if i make a pot sized bet and he calls, he makes a mistake. But at that point i'm commited and we're seeing 5th street anyways.

So what do i gain by making him call a pot sized bet? Do i get to call him names if he hits his flush?


Acid: If you're in my spot and 1 villain has air, and the other has the Nut flush draw, you want to get all the money in here before the river right? (please tell me you want all your chips in the middle.)
Are you folding if a heart peels off on the turn?

You guys make it sound like his winning % goes up because he gets 3.5:1 instead of 2:1 on the call. I know the price you need to draw, I know you want your opponents to make mistakes.

Here is what you're missing. Doubling up is not the point of playing poker. If not enough money goes in on the flop, then they're not making a mistake calling you. Maybe the turn blanks, you shove and they fold. Maybe the turn completes their flush, they shove and you call and draw out or don't. None of that really matters. All that matters is if your money goes in good or bad. If your money goes in good, you're not making a mistake. Poker is a zero-sum game (less the rake) and their gain is your loss. If you don't bet enough, in the long run, you're losing money. Bottom line.



Of course they do! They're called pot odds. Obviously the odds of him making his flush are independant of whether you go all in or check it down, but that's not what we look at in poker. All that matters is the price the pot is laying him compared to the odds that he'll make his draw. It is your job to set a price where it's incorrect to call. Really, your goal should be to bet the largest amount that he will incorrectly call. If you bet too little, he's not making a mistake and he makes money in the long run.


Explain how this is relevant. He's made a mistake. You profit from his mistake. Even if he makes his flush on the turn (after calling incorrectly) and shoves, you'll be given the odds that you need to try and make a boat. He's made another mistake here becuase he is giving you the correct price to outdraw him. Whether or not you don't (or he doesn't) have enough chips to offer the incorrect price doesn't matter. The fact will remain that you will have put in money on the flop where he made a mistake to call you. Then on the turn, when he gets lucky, he cannot cause you to make a mistake becuase there isn't enough money behind. You win twice by playing perfectly on the flop AND turn while he makes 2 mistakes.


Profit in the long run. The only thing that matters.


Of course I want my chips in the middle. Any way I play this hand, they'll all be in there on the turn. The point of making a big enough bet on the flop is for 2 reasons. The first is that he will be making a mistake chasing the flush when he calls. The second is that on the turn, if he does call, the pot will be big enough that we'll have correct odds to call all-in if a heart falls, even if he flips over his hand and we see he's turned the nut flush.


Winning % does not matter. His profit goes up if he gets the 4:1 that you offer him. Long Term Profit >>>>>> Winning Percentage.

What you are doing is taking 2 events (the flop bet and turn bet) and combining them into one based on the assumption that all the money is going in anyway due to your short stack.

However they are still 2 seperate events and need to be treated as such. The turn bet is a seperate event with additional information.

Because your stack is shortish there is not much wriggle room but it is possible that all the money doesn't go in.

If we work on the assumption that one villain has a flush draw the way he makes a mistake is to call more than his pot odds + his implied odds allow him too. That's a given

The way you make a mistake is by betting small enough on the flop so that it's profitable for him to call. There are only 2 people that are going to make a profit here, you and 'not you'. Any profit 'not you' makes comes out of yours. He has a % of the existing pot and you are charging him less than it's worth. When the flush does complete it is then incorrect for you to call a large turn bet and you should actually fold (based on the fundamental theorem of poker), relinquishing your equity in the pot.

Or, unlikely as it is given your reads, however the villain may realise that he needs about 4-1 to call the turn and fold when you shove. Meaning he plays correctly. Remember your read is less than 1 orbit old as well an there is no accounting for random donk events.

There is no doubt you will make money here, you simply want to maximise that profit

In no way should there ever be a series of events where Royal doesn't get all in here. He'll either do it on the flop if he's raised or he'll do it on the turn, regardless of what card rolls off.

Don't wanna get too involved here but this is very very important. Basically the fundamental of Skalansky's Book of NL Cash. Its a great read on odds and EV.

I think the problem we have here is short sightedness vs the big picture.

Ignore this specific hand for one second. The objective in poker is to get your opponent to put money in as often as possible getting inappropriate odds to improve his hand to a winner. If you consistently give a 3:1 dog 4:1 on his money, he will win in the long run. If you consistently give a 3:1 dog 2:1 on his money, you will win in the long run.

It's difficult at times to seperate the big picture from the specific hand you're playing in. I'm sure at the time, you were thinking about doubling up in that exact spot. Maximizing profit in a hand is important, of course, but this isn't a tournament. You don't *need* to double up to stay alive. If you let the opponents make the correct play "just this once" and then the next time you have a set, they make the correct play "just this once", eventually you have a bunch of "just this onces" that loses you a lot of money.

Where is Zach to give us some poker cliches that are loosely applicable?

You guys are missing what i'm getting at. I KNOW everything we have covered. IMO, i'm trying to approach this differently because I want all my money in, and the slight chance that he folds a draw because he wasnt getting good enough odds is losing some EV. (just in this 1 spot, not always)


Naismith, this makes little sense.

You need to always get your 3:1 draw in with 3:1 on your money to make it breakeven/profitable.

if we played this hand 1,000,000 times over where i have 180.00 vs 2 other players who both cover. 1 of which always has a FD. I will win this hand 750,000 times

I'm am not giving him 4:1 from my stack. He's not getting 25 cents on the dollar here. He will always be drawing as a 3:1 dog.

Appreciate that, I'm talking about all the money though - villain's as well

FYP

i understand what you're going for Royal but here's where it starts to break down

you lead for 40, let's say just one of them calls with a FD
pot = ~185 on the turn
effective stacks are now ~105

if the FD hits, you're not folding, but you're betting/calling to outdraw with worse odds than you gave him. assuming you don't think of the money you've already put in the pot as dead money but rather as a two part process of getting him to get AI with you, then yes, your total equity over all 5 cards doesn't change and you come out ahead.

except, this relies on one really important assumption - that villain tags along with you when you shove the turn even if he hasn't hit his FD. if he folds, the money only gets AI when you're the underdog and you can't think about equity in this hand over all 5 cards, all the time.

you bet 105 on the turn, pot becomes 290 giving villain a bit worse than 3-1 to hit his flush on the river with no implied odds. maybe he still doesn't fold there, but if he doesn't then he's probably going with you anyway on a bigger flop bet/flop push, while at the same time, the risk of him folding the turn when you bet small on the flop isn't totally insignificant. this really wrecks the expectation you're basing the decision on.

If y'all were doing a physics problem, this would be arguing about where to place the datum.

A guy drops a cat off the roof of a 100m tall building. How long does it take the cat to land on the ground?

You can set this problem with the top of the building as d=0 and the cat lands at d=-100m. Or you can set the set the problem up with the ground as d=0 and the top of the building as d=+100m. It doesn't, in the end, make any difference.

Royal is right that he gains incrementally for every amount the he bets and the villain calls as compared to not betting.
Naismith, et al. are right that the hero loses money when he bets an amount the villain can call justified by pot odds as compared to betting more.

From a strictly pot-odds standpoint, the villain makes a mistake even drawing at 4:1, since he has dirty outs against the set. With cards exposed, the (assuming there's just one) villain breaks even when he gets 5.6 : 1. I think practically it's clear that the villain makes a good play by drawing for 4:1 here with implied odds such as they are.

If the hero offers exactly the right pot odds, the villain can't make a FTOP mistake by folding or calling, only raising. The argument for a big bet on the flop is that we want to encourage a big mistake on the part of the villain, not a small one. If the point of the weak lead is to induce a raise, I don't think there's anything theoretical to argue about there.

Man, you just shot holes through the entire debate.

Haha. Shot holes.

Hahaha - dick move.

There is another problem with your arguement royal. Betting so that your opponent is making a mistake on the flop by calling you is one, but you should also be looking to get quite a bit more in on the flop incase your opponent does not have specifically a flush draw and folds the turn. The times that that happens and he folds the turn after you bet 1/2 the pot lose you money. If you bet the pot on the flop, he's probably not laying down the nut flush anyway and he may fold the turn if you act strong. You want as much of your money in though, before your villian hits the flush if that is indeed what he is drawing to. I don't like pricing my opponent in and then shoving when I'm sure he got there. It's much more calming to my nerves if I know I got it all in on the before he got there.