Serious stats question...

Hypothetically, let's say I find someone to flip a coin for even money. I can parlay some of these trials.

I decide to flip the coin ten times.

I bet thusly:

$25 on Flip 1
$10 on Flip 3
$25 on Flip 5
$10 on Flip 7
$10 on Flip 1 & 2 together (pays 3-1)
$5 on Flips 4-6 together (pays 7-1)
$5 on Flips 7-10 together (pays 15-1)
$10 on Flips 3, 5, 9 (pays 7-1)

What do my win/loss probabilities look like? Obviously, the most money I'll lose is $100. That will happen if I pick every odd # flip incorrectly, which occurs 3.125% of the time (.5^5). If I pick every flip correctly, I'll win $280. That'll happen very rarely (.5^10). However, there's some sort of "distribution curve" at work here, but I've forgotten how one would generate it.

(I think David's most likely to answer this question...but someone else might want to take a look at it too.)

I think it will be extremely tedious to put those into a distribution.

I really can't think of an easy way of going about it.

That looks like work, Cobalt.


I'll take a look tonight.

How could this be anything other than =EV?

Let's assume you win more often than you lose, say you win 50+x% of the time (and lose 50-x%), this would mean that the person that you are fliping against would win 50-x% of the time.

However, clearly your opponent must win just as often as you do, since he's playing with the same structure as you are and there's no skill involved. Therefore we have that 50 - x = 50 + x <=> x= 0, so you should win 50% of the time, if you're not cheating or anything.

EDIT: you probably mean how often you'll win/lose a certain amount... working that out looks really tedious.

BUMP! I haven't seen the BAW this low in awhile. Leave it to a crazy math question to drop the thread off the map.

I just spent 6 hours helping someone move. Last time I moved I paid someone to do it for me, and yet I end up moving someone else's shit.

I haven't had a workout like that in years...

this is EXACTLY how I dislocated my tail bone...at least it was my own shit and not someone else's.


I would totally rather be playing poker right now.

the great part about online poker, you don't even have to see a single human to play poker.

Agree. Stop impedeing the success of this post with mathematics Cobalt! I try to get sexually explicit conversations going about certain "hairy" (yes that is a pun, ftw) situations people have been in and you kill the momentum with MATH.




, the American Dream.

Yeah...I was worried that was the case. I suppose it's not hugely important. I was just wondering if anyone remembered a "simple" way to do it.


Right. Like plugging it in, we'd find that we lose $70 20% of the time or something (I have no idea if that's even close).

I suppose we could do a simpler example to get a feel for approaching it...

4 flips

$5 on Flip 1
$20 on Flip 3
$5 on Flip 4
$10 on Flip 1-2
$10 on Flip 3-4

12.5% of the time, we'll lose $50. 6.25% of the time, we'll win $110. So now we just need to break down the other 81.25%.

Tskillz plays 4 big pots in a session.

Twice he puts it in as a 80-20 favorite.

Once he puts it in as a 10-90 dog.

Once he puts it in as a 58-42 favorite.

100% of the time he loses.

then what are you doing here? you can only cash in sklansky dollars at a poker table.

I believe Sklansky dollars are actually the term he uses for each dollar in revenue he made from ToP.

I'm confused, how can we win $110? Assuming 3-1 on the two flip ones, can't we win 5+20+5+30+30 = 90?

Anyway, here is what I got (this one is much simpler):

(1/8)% = -$50
(3/16)% = -$40
(1/16)% = -$30
(1/8)% = $-10
(1/8)% = +-$0
(1/16)% = +$10
(3/16)% = +$40
(1/16)% = +$50
(1/16)% = +$90

It works out to be =EV. I did this the brute force way though. I don't think there is a simple solution, this problem is based off discrete mathematics, and the problem appear to be NP (non polynomial).

I promised Zach a guaranteed 12-game parlay:

Cardinals +9, Ari/Was over 36, Falcons +9, Buffalo +3, Tampa +2.5, Tam/Det under 44.5, Houston +1, Oakland -1, NYJ/Cin under 47.5, Denver +3.5, Pit/Den over 39, Indy -3


SHIIIIIIIIP IT

Um no, um no

also are u playing on stars i played against someone last nite with that buc avatar

Take back what you said about the Bucs and I'll answer your question!

You're correct, sir.

Don't you guys get it?

David Sklansky is just getting everyone acclimated to the term "Sklansky Dollars" so that when the time comes for him to take over the world with his telekinetic and telepathic powers and super mathematical problem solving skill and changes the worlds currency into Sklanksy Dollars, everyone on this forum will already be a millionaire and we won't put up a fight against his maniacal oppression.


OPEN YOUR EYES PEOPLE, FOR CHRIST'S SAKE.

I pick good people to stake.

lol

- Jordan

I'm sorry

LOL.

It wasn't me, no.

It made sense to me. How many Buc fans can there be? 12ish? How many of them play poker? How many stack of to krup with Q high over and over again? (inferred)

very perceptive, dude played like I envision Naismith to play. 400 bb stack to 50 to 150 to 300 to 0.

Even though I'm retired, this is very similar to how my session went last night. 200 to 400 to 100 to 300 to 80 to 500. No "to 0" part, although that's usually correct.

Go Bucs!

LOL

what does everyone think of the new avatar??

Also I unregistered from the million because I am a nit and I want to watch the Red Sox make the world series.

you sir, are a nit. how are you supposed to pay for a trip to Vegas for us all now???


dude, back is feeling WAAAAAAY better. We are definitely going to play HU this week and I will take all your money. It goes to a good cause - my being able to sit fund (aka doctor's payments)

oh, I finally signed up for CR as well. I ended up getting the second tier membership but only because apparently the videos aren't mac compatible...once they are, I'll be upgrading for sure.

Tskillz PM:


I need you to repost this in the BAW thread after Naismith sends you his picks too. This way he can't whine about copying picks etc. So here are my picks...

BAL @ BUF 1:00 PM
ATL @ NO 1:00 PM
ARI @ WAS 1:00 PM
SF @ NYG 1:00 PM
NE @ MIA 1:00 PM
TEN @ HOU 1:00 PM
TB @ DET 1:00 PM
KC @ OAK 4:05 PM
NYJ @ CIN 4:05 PM
CHI @ PHI 4:15 PM
STL @ SEA 4:15 PM
MIN @ DAL 4:15 PM
PIT @ DEN 8:15 PM
IND @ JAC 8:30 PM points - 42


Naismith PM:

TEN @ HOU
TB @ DET
ATL @ NO
BAL @ BUF
SF @ NYG
ARI @ WAS
NE @ MIA
KC @ OAK
NYJ @ CIN
MIN @ DAL
CHI @ PHI
STL @ SEA
PIT @ DEN

IND @ JAC PTS: 45




Fight it out boys!

Either there is something missing of they both picked every game to be a tie, which would be very interesting.

Acid can confirm this, but here are our different picks:

I took Philly, he took Chicago.
I took Buffalo, he took Baltimore.
I took Houston, he took Tennessee.
I took Oakland, he took KC.
I took Denver, he took Pitt.

Weeeeeeeeeeeeee. Go Lions

I can't believe how much the Pats raped the Dolphins before halftime...

i dunno it's ok but it's like not u even though I can't remember your old avatar

I'm more than suicidal. They have to try to lose these games.

that was sick

I'm so good at knowing when Philly is gonna choke and suck dizick.

Shipppppppp.

(worst day of my life)

You still alive? If so,

Giants: 5-2
Eagles: 2-4

I just want Bdawk back.

I'm sitting over here skipping out on work and listnening to Eagle interviews. At least they're all in a state of shock too. The offense just needs to get in sync and then everything will click, I just don't know if they ever fucking will!

I heard the Eagles were looking at local highschool quarterbacks

They usually pick up the local bums.

I leave for one weekend and the topics turn from football and poker to maggots and unshaven bush. I'm proud.

wow i missed that i didn't leave

http://youtube.com/watch?v=p0Y7yjxJVlc

Mind you, I'm a Notre Dame fan, but this is still ****ing funny.

Another reason Philadelphia (Eagles) sucks more than NY (Giants) does

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071022/od_nm/...nattractive1_dc

at least Philly plays in their own state/town they are named for.

not that I'm defending them at all - just that I lived in Philly and really loved the place. Probably because I too am ugly and fit right in.














I made myself feel bad


btw, was it you I was talking to about Card Runners? if so, I finally signed up BUT I didn't do the full membership because I'm on a Mac and the videos don't work or at least I haven't looked into running WM Player on the mac and running the wma files from CR. anyways, if you want to check it out, let me know.

I don't know where else to put this, but wow. Have you guys heard about the Absolute Poker scandal? Cardplayer hasn't covered this at all... which may or may not be a bad idea. This probably killed any chance at legalization online poker ever had.

Links:
http://wizardofodds.com/software/absolutepoker.html
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat...p;vc=1&nt=3
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21381022/
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat...;vc=1&nt=24

Jesus.

...

if everything that was busted out in it's infancy failed, we would be absolutely nowhere as a society. I think this an eye-opener for companies and players alike and can help to build towards the validity of online poker. While I don't necessarily think it was just a "rogue employee", it seems to be isolated.

I don't know that I agree with that, it just seems like the US is ignoring a multi billion dollar business. Why wouldn't the US want to try to find a way to get a few of these sites in the US and collect taxes on it? Would you feel safer playing on a site that was based and ran by a corporation like MGM, Harrah's or Wynn?