I'll get the real hand history up when I find it later, but I wanted people's opinion of this.

1K/2K 300 ante

UTG: ~50K
Button: ~90K
Hero: ~50K
BB: ~110K

UTG limps, Button limps, Hero calls (K,Jo), BB checks.

flop Q T x with 2 clubs (I have Jc)

Hero checks, BB checks, UTG raises 15K, Button folds, Hero ???

Numbers might be slightly off but I know there was 25K in the pot and I have about 50K at this point (literally 1600 more than UTG). UTG is somewhat LAG, but can be tricky.

i like just calling and letting a card come off here, and just try to hit a card...if you miss and then have to c/f you will still have a workable stack with ~33k

What if I hit say the 3c on the turn?

1) count your outs and workout what odds you need
2) calculate your pot odds
3) fold if 2) is smaller than 1) and call any other time

Recalculate on the turn.

Am I wrong in suggesting this, if so why?

Well first of all, pushing all in here has a chance to push out a bluff, and most paired hands. Don't we have to consider that option? I am risking over 30% of my stack to see one card with a call. I have to figure my odds of hitting with that one card since if I don't, I'm probably folding the turn bet. I think I have to fold or push here. Is my thinking flawed?

Seems like a push/fold situation to me...but I don't think we have much FE against the villain here. He's already committed 30% of his stack, so he seems to like his hand a lot. I think the only thing that folds is a bad steal attempt and maybe bottom pair. Otherwise you have to catch to win.

I prolly fold and play the button with some first in.

I agree, push or fold. You really think he calls a push getting 2.1-1 with anything less than a Q in his hand? Like TJ will call a push here? I would expect him to fold even JQ here to a push...I'm pretty sure I would. I should also add that this player knows me pretty well and I have not been restealing much at all at this point.

umm, just fold. He's betting 15k into an 8k pot, he isn't folding to your push and you are certainly behind on the flop. You still have 25 bb, fold and get on with it.

If he folds he's crippled. He has basically half the next person's chips and an effective M of Squadoosh. I would call with Q, T, or even the draw if I were him. (Of course I don't raise 15k into a 7k pot with a T either...but...)

I also just noticed that the BB is still left to act after you...pretty likely he's going away, but it adds a variable.

Here's the hand:

PokerStars Game #11139005498: Tournament #54748687, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (1500/3000) - 2007/07/26 - 00:49:38 (ET)
Table '54748687 2' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: pockethreeze (52838 in chips)
Seat 4: chrism_31 (101178 in chips)
Seat 5: JesterSB (54832 in chips)
Seat 9: WaitingRadio (91152 in chips)
pockethreeze: posts the ante 300
chrism_31: posts the ante 300
JesterSB: posts the ante 300
WaitingRadio: posts the ante 300
JesterSB: posts small blind 1500
WaitingRadio: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to WaitingRadio [4d 8c]
pockethreeze: calls 3000
chrism_31: calls 3000
JesterSB: calls 1500
WaitingRadio: checks
*** FLOP *** [7c Tc Qs]
JesterSB: checks
WaitingRadio: checks
pockethreeze: bets 12000
chrism_31: folds

oh sweet thanks. wow blinds had gone up and the raise was smaller than I thought. That's what I get for playing til 1am two nights in a row...a bad memory.

That changes things a bit. Now his bet is a little less than pot, so it doesn't look so much like a steal.

I see him folding even less often now though. The higher blinds mean he is really crippled with a fold. I have to think he's committed to this hand.

Well he still has 37.5K left which is an M of about 5.5...I agree he probably calls with any Q or better now, but I still think he folds a ten against me.

Not 4 handed. His effective M would be just over 2.

then you c/f and save your 33k or so

Against this Villain I'd push.

I played 112 hands with him earlier, and we was very LAG...29.46/11/1.58 with a 3.5 AF on the flop overall...and he became looser as the levels progressed. In the last level I played with him (800/1600/150) he was 60/53/infinite.

I'd fold against a typical TAG Neg-O player...

first of all, how can you expect logical advice when you completely butcher the details of the hand?


considering the new details (ie, the actual hand) I don't mind shoving here, I think you have a bit of fold equity and its a pretty good spot for a semi bluff. if he calls, your K, and possibly your J could be additional outs.

First off, with the stack sizes and the size of the pot, one of you are going to be crippled and the other with a nice stack unless you can bluff him out or fold. His numbers and him limping, he probably has air/trash. hitting a straight is more like 4.6-1 if I'm not mistaken. On poker stove you're about a 46/54 dog. its just not profitable. just lay it down

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,694,680 games 0.078 secs 47,367,692 games/sec

Board: 7c Tc Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.069% 44.31% 01.76% 1637022 65091.00 { KJo }
Hand 1: 53.931% 52.17% 01.76% 1927476 65091.00 { 22+, A5s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A5o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }