Here is the situation:

Blinds: 20,000- 40,000
Antes: 5000
Stack: 6,000,000
Total chips in play: 11,280
Players Left: 7

So it's seven handed at the WPT championship at Bellagio and you have a mosnter chip lead with over half the chips in play. Your opponents are all at around one million in chips and playing rather cautiously hoping someone else goes broke.

You are raising an average of 2.5 hands per round and picking up the blinds without a fight. Now from early position you raise with K 7 to 150,000.

All fold to the small blind who goes all in for a total of 650,000 and it's back to you.

fold, i dont care about whether im getting pot odds, if i can keep picking up these blinds 2.5 times around the table ill increase my stack like that rather than risking another 400k to win a pot where i have to show what im raising with and could be in bad shape

FOLD

From what you said I would fold but this is one of those situations where you have to know about the player.

I'd fold as well, unless you have some kind of read that makes you think he's on a bluff just because of your previous play. I don't think you have any reason to double this guy up, and it seems likely that you'll be able to continue picking up most pots that you raise after this one as well. This play might lead others at the table to start re-raising you more, but I don't think that's enough of a reason to call here.

Call! You have chips to spare, an OK hand, and you already have a stake in the pot. If you fold, you will be teaching your opponents that they can stay alive and steal blinds by going all in.

I agree with Mandelbrot.

You need to show that you will back up your raises. No since letting your table image slip here.

Plus you need to whittle the field down.

Fold, better opportunities will present themselves. You do not want to double him up through your stack - even as large as it is.

Call. There's 875k in the pot and 500k more to call so you're getting almost 2-1 on your money. Unless he's got Aces, Kings or Ace-King you're probably around a 2-1 underdog so go ahead and call. If you win or lose you're still in the same situation with a big chip lead against a bunch of clustered opponents. By showing that you'll call with a less than premium hand it's going to make it harder for them to play-back at you letting you pick up more blinds.

I'd call. So it costs you another 500k to call, big deal. You still have a HUGE chip lead over the rest of the field and if you lose this pot, you'll get it back real quick if you continue to raise every 2.5 hands or so winning 95k a pop.

It's a small price to pay to send the message "I'm willing to gamble if you come over the top of my raise." Win or lose, you can be pretty sure the small stacks are going to tighten up even more after a call like that.

When they all looked at you funny, did you give them the standard online poker response? "But they were suited!"

call, you're still in decent shape even if you lose.

Folding here will only entice others to protect their blinds, a message here to the rest of the table telling them, that you mean business is the best route to go.

Call!!!

Everyone has already covered the pot odds, showing your willing to back up your raises, etc but if you remember Raymer at the WSOP, he called every time someone pushed all in. Why? Because he had the chip strength to withstand the loses and knew that most often head-t0-head meetings are just a coin flip.

The only reason I could see folding here is if you knew the player wouldn't raise with anything but pocket Aces or Kings.

Call.

You've been stealing blinds and raising pre-flop for the last couple of hands. I wouldn't put the SB on a monster, but it's possible. I'd say he's close to the short stack, (so play aggressive against him, even still) and trying to make a play with a decent/strong hand, anywhere around JJ, TT, QQ, AQo, KJs...maybe even nines. SB may think 'this a bluff and you can't back up your raise, you're simply stealing blinds and I won't let that happen'. K7s is a medium hand that has potential against this SB.

Not only will folding entice others to protect their blinds, it will entice them to do so with weaker hands. By calling, the rest of the table will be on alert that they need a big hand to raise. This could be some cheap advertising.

Folding keeps them guessing, thinking that you were in there with complete trash. Pot odds supported the call for a coin flip, what if this hand is dominated, which is likely. Still gotta say fold, this time.

I won't be surprised to see Daniel's suggested play be to call.

Opponents playing cautiously and Daniel picking up the blinds without a fight suggest that the SB has a premium hand. We're getting 1.75 to 1. If the opponents were raising aggressively this hand would be worth calling. But just barely. Against any pair, any ace, and KQ and KJ, it is about 1.68 to 1. If this player is only playing pairs 55 and up plus ace with an 8 and up, it's 1.82 to 1. Fold the K7s.
One other reason the SB is likely to have a premium hand. On the Travel Network boardcast only the final six is shown on TV. No one wants to gamble and miss being on TV.

I like this one.

Everyone is missing one important point: If you fold now it will show that you might be raising with garbage and will fold to a reraise.
If you call, whether you win or lose at least you make people think twice about moving in on you.
so you must
CALL
if you lose it won't be huge hit to you, and unless he has KK or AA you aren't a huge underdog you'll be getting decent pot odds anyways, no way in hell should you fold.

I would say you have to call, I could understand folding since you keep stealing the blinds, but you need to show that you won't fold on the first sign of resistance. Even if you lose you will still be the chip leader, and it will show that you protect your raises. He probably has a decent hand, but yours is still probably good enough to call with.

By the way is this a hand from your last championship win?

Without any hesitation, call. You have to expect the SS to be on a premium hand, AK, AQ, KK, AA, or those lines, and feeling good. You're on a draw to the 2nd nut spade flush. Even if you lose this hand, you tighten up just slightly, but go back to hitting the bigger hands, and maybe you'll get a desperation re-raise from someone hurting later on. Also remember, with the blinds and antes where they are, these SSs have LESS THAN 10 HANDS to go before being blinded out, so they've got to be getting desperate. In that situation, call instantly.

Hopefully this isn't too much of a hint that sways your decision, but you are all going to learn a lot from this one!

Call

-Somebody said you have to fold so nobody sees what you're raising with, but i think its safe to say they know you're not holding a monster 5 of 14 hands. You're getting 3-2 for your money and if he's (or she is it was Harman) holding A-8 through A-Q w/o a you're only a 40-60 dog. If you're up against a monster, it'd be unlikely to be put in before the flop with the loose raising image.


...on second thought ... fold

let them think all they have to do is go in on me and i'll fold ... then i'll get em when i pick up a hand later

Uh oh! :oops:

I will only attempt.
If you fold you will entice more players to go all in. This seems like a good play. With people going all in more often, you can trap them and knock them out. You have the chips to raise, and let it go. You still show people you are raising marginal hands by folding, but they will never know if you hold AA, or 72. But they will try moving all in to push you off of your hand, but when you have a pair, or AK...you wont budge.
I remember reading something by daniel saying that he will call some bets at the final table that pot odds don't justify, because if he gets lucky, he can knock out a quality player and move up in money. Although it seems like calling with K 7 is a good example of this, by folding you will allow yourself more chances.
Also, it seems like you are bullying the table, if that is the case, I would be afraid this guy had a really good hand because he finally made a stand.
I would say you would want the action with all those chips. If you call people will only go all in with good hands, because they know you will call with marginal ones. I would just have to say fold.

At $6m and 2.5 raises per round everyone knows you are using your stack too bully the table and you might have any hand. Winning or losing this hand makes little difference too your stack....you still have the chips to get it back if you lose. Winning or losing the hand is not the point. In this hand you are aiming to make a point and get the response you want, which is too loosen the table up and show you will give action.

If you fold, you are sending the message everyone already knew....you have been bullying the table. They see you got caught and folded. This will not loosen them up, only make them stay tight and wait for when they can have a go at you. If you call you are saying that you are willing to gamble preflop with a marginal hand, out of position. While you never want to doubleup someone on the final table, in this hand you are not totally dead....probably a dog, but not dead.

If you lose you will get more action. If you win you will get more action. If you fold you will only be facing premium tickets everytime. Winning 90K uncontested each round "sounds" nice, but you want to loosen the table up.

If you are raising 2.5 rounds per hand and picking up blinds easily, then it shows that everyone @ the table is waiting for a time to double up. Who cares if you have so many chips? Let's keep it that way! We only' have King High.

It seems that the only way we are going to get attacked is when somebody picks up a nice hand to double up on. Also, we raised from early position, which to seems to show strength. ( I know its onl 7 handed and its obvious that we are just trying to pick up blinds on many hands but we should still take in to account that it is from early position)

I'm sick of people saying "Call, you can afford it!" So many people will get a huge chip lead only to lose it because "they can afford it" I worked hard for my chips and I want to keep them damnit! Especially with a decent raise when I know I am so far behind.

The person who went all in is in the small blind. The small blind is ready to be the button next hand, and have 5 hands without having to pay. They aren't afraid of going in now because they are STRONG. I really feel like we are a big underdog and I would rather keep this person as low on chips as possible. I'm not going to call them to throw away what I have earned. Move on to the next hand because this person has a nice hand. Say they have aces or kings, WE'RE CRUSHED. I don't want to call a huge raise HOPING i have an overcard. I've picked up enough blinds to be able to make that preflop raise and let it go. Calling here would be horrible because of how many chips are involved, roughly 1/10 if you make the call.

This is pretty much an automatic fold to me because it's way too big of a pot to be in knowing you are behind and might even be totally dominated.

Hum... I think the correct play here is whatever Daniel says. So I'll go with that!

Where in the heck is the "What Daniel says" option?

8)

After saying CALL, and then seeing this from Daniel, I am trying to look for some different reasoning. Here Goes:

1. You are playing as Daniel, so people know that your raises might be with say...10-7 off.

2. You are stealing 95K every third hand or so, and folding to a reraise only costs you about 1-1/2 times that to fold. If you call, you will have to steal another 7 times.

3. If you go from the adage that a person has about as much chance to win as his/her total percentage of chips, you would take this person from about 6% to around 12%, as opposed to 8% if we fold.

So forgetting about the pot odds, do we want to double this person's chances of winning the tourney? Do we want to have to steal another 7 times to get our chips back, as compared to taking only 2 times?

It sounds like it's time to maintain the status quo, and just go along with buying the blinds every few hands, and letting the littler stacks take each other out until we wake up with/flop a monster.

All that being said for the fold position...I would still probably call, lol. :oops:

Based on this comment, whichever of us have made the right conclusion on the hand, it sounds like it might be for the wrong reasons. I look forward to Daniel's analysis. :?

I can't believe all these calls. (I understand some of the logic, but it is a failed steal)

I understand that you are invested somewhat into the pot. You have been raising every 2.5 hands, and yes it might be possible that someone is making a play at you, but why would they?

They know know know you are raising so often you are more than likely on some rags and pushing people around with your chips. So all they have to do is wait for a half way decent hand and come over the top of you and take the pot OR better yet double up.

The K 7 suited was a steal attempt that failed. Lose 100K and still have near 6 million in chips. Why double a person up when all they need is an ace to be ahead?

Also I want to fold this and hope to make the same play a couple hands later but with a good hand. Then they come over the top of you and you nail them.

**** odds here. At this point I have stolen enough pots with rags that I can manage to lose one raise.

Not only that, you raised a 60k pot to 150k, less that 4X the BB and got raised to 17X the BB. You have to call 13 more BB, get down on your knees and ****ing pray to win. I’d rather not.

**also even though the player doesn't have a HUGE stack, he still has a big enough stack to wait around and not make stupid plays.**

I would fold in this situation at a final table. First off you have a huge chip lead compared to everyone else at the table. Although it is only 650k to your huge stack, why risk it and gamble here with only a king high. i just dont like gambling with a king high here at a final table. when you have the chance to bust someone with a premium hand then go after them and eliminate them, but gambling and doubling up a possible dangerous player is a bad move. also if you do call with K7 and you continue to raise every 2.5 hands, players are more wiling to play back at you and re-raise, then you will be faced with more tough decisions. even though i dont think this is a tough decision. FOLD FOLD FOLD

I know anyone could have said "it depends", but Daniel has always depended on past history to make key decisions. What hands has this player played in the past? Does he bluff a lot? Does he only play premium hands? Is he a cagey clever player? Could he be a tight player knowing that you are trying to steal and is using his image to steal the pot with 10-7 (Daniels favorite hand)? Or conversely, is he a loose player knowing you know he's loose and using that image to go all in with a monster? Also, how did he go all in? Did he feign weakness or did he look confident? Could he be sending false tells? or is he an amateur sending true tells? ie Weak is strong, Strong is weak? I thnk these are all things to be considered.

I mean, I know you have a huge stack, but a 500K raise is a big deal!!!! And doubling up a Dangerous player is , well, Dangerous.
Play his hand, don't play yours

I think you all are either missing the point of my post, or are too locked into one mindset. Winning or losing this hand is meaningless.

This hand has NOTHING to do with blinds and antes. You have an excellent opportunity to set the other players up to get their STACK, not grind it out for more blinds.

Since this table is dead tight you will ONLY face premium hands for the duration if you fold. Face it, cracking or matching premium tickets is not where the money is....and if you fold they will be waiting on nut cards to play at you. Folding paints a BIG target on you.

As bad as it is to doubleup someone, in this case you win, whether you win or lose the hand. Since the table is tight, it is unlikely they will knock each other out while you eat a sub sandwich....and even if they DID do that, it is not good for you because now ONE person has all the others chips and is a doubleup from the chip lead. By making the call you loosen up the table so YOU can go after their STACKS, not the blinds. And who said you can't still pickup some blinds?

generally i will call. the only reason i wouldn't is if the player who moved in was someone who i would fear with a decent amount of chips. in this example, i would probably call all by jennifer.

in this example, the only hand you are really concerned about AA AK or KK. If they have any other hand, you have a fighting chance. Also, you are showing everyone else at the table that by reraising, they are likely to get called which should tighten them up even more.

Call.

CALL FOR SURE. You want to establish dominance at the table. You're willing to gamble with any mediocre cards. This will communicate to your opponents as dangerous because they cannot get you to fold preflop no matter what. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't feel comfortable moving in with anything other than KK or AA if I knew my opponent would be willing to call me with any remotely playable hand. You will be knocked out about 30-50% of the time depending on what he holds. Since I have over half the chips and I'm raising 2.5 hands/round, I will call on the gamble to knock out another player. If I lose, what happens? I raise 2.5 hands/round and win it all back in 2 rounds! Easy call right here I believe.

I am a new player so I am sorry if this isnt the most in depth analysis. But the salient fact for me is the:



I would fold, no doubt

If I had such a big chip lead, I call all ins with a lot of sub-par hands if I open the pot. I've called with 69 suited, 10-8 off suit. With all those chips. I'd want to call. THOUGH, it depends on the player and how he's been playing.

It's a lose call, but when I'm the chip leader by that far of a margin, I do a lot more calling than I normally would. Also it can scare other players. If you knock this guy out with that hand. They might wait a little longer before playing a nice hand knowing you'll call with Gus Hanson hands.

I would do it to induce fear and to be honest, I like hands like that. Especially if I opened the pot preflop.

Fold. The thought of calling just to see the shock on everybody's faces may be cool if this was on T.V., but you lose more than you would gain by calling with this "weak" hand. If you call and lose, you run the risk of losing control of the table by giving them hope. They'll look to push more with the idea you'll double them up. Remember, everyone is waiting for one person to bust. Letting the small blind/short stack live keeps everyone on edge. Use that to your advantage. You can keep hammering the table because no one wants to put themselves at risk with your stack. You've got two hands with the blinds, and then you'll be back with position to bully the table with your chips and that fear.

I'm not a professional poker player, but I would love to play one on T.V.

lose 3 or 4 of these in a row and you're lucky to be even chip leader, and if you are then theres going to be a few stacks not far behind. lots of loose all in calls arent what win you tournaments

This crew voted to fold A9o on quiz 2 when the pot was giving 2.08 to 1.

Now the pot is offering 1.75 to 1 AND the players are showing no gamble the forum wants to call with K7s.

Perplexing and Inconsistent.

Call. By now, everyone knows that you're bullying, plus you already have 150K invested in the pot. Even if people are waiting for that big hand to catch you with your hand in the cookie jar you still have outs (not many, but some). 650,000 isn't that big of a hit to take, and someone going all in may have a marginal hand looking to play back at you. The purpose of raising in the first place is to try and get people down to the felt. You don't want to open up a window where someone believes that they will be able to bluff you.

This same topic was discussed in a recent seminar you gave, and the advice was to fold. You are routinely getting the blinds uncontested, and now you are played back at with less than 2 to 1 odds.....fold. This play will benefit you later when you make the same raise with a quality hand, and have someone play right into you.

Interesting - but this guy will increase his stack by a 1/3rd if you fold. Next time he goes all-in it will be a lot more painful to stay in and lose. If you call, you have a chance to break him.

In most cases i would fold, i mean just because someone reraised and you folded, doesnt mean that you're not defending your bet. You think the other smaller stacks still arent scared that anytime you raise a pot you could break them? They still wont bluff you for the most part, cuz you could be raising with a real hand. One of the main reasons people are still not be willing to play a pot against you is because its a WPT EVENT! only the final six make the tv show! So for that reason people are still going to be afraid to tangle with the chip leader! Also, you've been playing at the same table with these people for quite a while, because the table started with 10 people at it, so the rest of the table should probably already know your tendency to gamble. Not only that mathematically it would be a poor decision. If everyone was playing really conservative not wanting to get knocked out, you know that this guy moving in must have a legitimate hand one that probably has you dominated.

You fold!!!

WPT events that are shown on TV only show the final 6 players. Don't kid yourself, all 7 of these players are well aware of this, and would only be willing to risk finishing in 7th with the absolute nuts!!!!

Up against pocket aces, guaranteed.

Forget pot odds, table image, stack size, blah blah blah. It's all about getting on TV at this point.

Sorry CMAK, I echoed your answer about TV being the main issue. I didn't see it as I posted reply to page one, not yet knowing about a second page. Good answer though.

This is a big tell in my opinion. I doubt it very strongly that the SB is going to change gears at this stage of the game. Being on the button next hand he or she could fold to your raise and hope one or two players are knocked out while he continues to play cautiously.

I'm thinking the SB has a strong hand here and I would definitely fold. My K 7 is a hand that is weak against so many possibilities. I find it hard to believe that a tight player would suddenly go all in with something less than K 7 .

As for table image: I don't have to worry. With 6,000,000 in chips my table image is still strong. Folding is the right move here. I will have many more opportunities to knock the small stacks out. The only chance they have is if I start doubling them up chasing hands like K 7 .


Here are your chances ON THE FLOP with "Columbia River":

Chance of getting a Straight Flush on the flop: 0.000%

Chance of getting 4 of a kind on the flop: 0.010%

Chance of getting a Full House on the flop: 0.092%

Chance of getting a Flush on the flop: 0.842%

Chance of getting a Straight on the flop: 0.000%

Chance of getting 3 of a kind on the flop: 1.571%

Chance of getting 2 Pair on the flop: 4.041%

Chance of getting 1 Pair on the flop: 40.408%

Chance of getting a Four Flush on the flop: 10.944%

Chance NO overcards will flop: 77.449%

Chance ONE overcard will flop: 21.122%

Chance TWO overcards will flop: 1.408%

Chance THREE overcards will flop: 0.020%

Chance ANY overcards will flop: 22.551%

Yes...I agree with whoever said you had to back up your raises. Its only 500,000 more and K 7 isn't too shabby. Your there to gamble right??...lets make things interesting.

Call

Its costing you 500 more and you'll be getting over 1.2 in chips.

The reason 1.2 is significant has two reasons...

1. If you lose, the Small blind will still be on average with the other 5 players at the table. Making no one any more aggressive and a tight game is good from your stand point. You can dable a little to see flops and hit some you wouldn't ordinarily play.

2. If you win you've added another 100% chip lead over all of the other players giving yourself around 7.3 million chips in a 11.2 mill game.

Small stack at 650k maybe playing something like KJ A8 something above average as there are only two players left... you and him. If more players were in and he bet 650 all in you might raise his hand a bit.

A good call win or lose. You aren't losing too much and no one gains a big advantage... and winning far increases your chip stack.

Don't fold a 500 raise when you have 150 in and that big of a lead.

8) I would like to call that and try to take down another player. You will still be the chip leader and you have a chance to take down another player and a chance for more money in the end.

I didnt read through the entire thread, so if someone has answered the same way I am about to I'm not stealing your answers or anything....in fact, to be honest, im not reading any replies hoping my answer will be the first of its kind. So, here goes....

With 95,000 in every single pot, and you being able to take 2.5 pots per round, preflop, there is no way i would call with K-7....in fact, I wouldn't even call with Aces. If you call, and bust the player, you gain 700,000 chips, but then you are down to 6 players and the rest of the table will loosen up. It would change the whole dynamic of the table and not allow you to steal that 200k every round. I would be doing everything in my power to keep that table at 7 players for as long as possible, and in the process making my stack larger and larger before the eventual final 6. I would think I could gain a whole lot more than 700k by folding that one hand, and keeping the table tight and passive. Hope to here if my thoughts are on the right track Daniel.

I like this type of Question and Answer section as it has to be a sure fire way of learning to get better at this game we all love regardless of who you are and your own individual ability.

Anyway here's my tuppence worth which is the equivalent of the US 2 cents worth.

My personal inclination here is to fold and for a number of reasons.

Firstly your pot odds are not that great at significantly less than 2/1 so you cannot really assume your King if you hit is going to be that good. You are also quite likely to be in very bad shape so pot odds this bad are easier to decline. Being suited offers you practically nothing at all extra as you are going to be heads up and the small blind knows he has no positional advantage over you and has to worry about the BB holding a hand too. Hence the all in with what can be assumed to be a decent premium hand.

However as much as you want to take out another opponent the key to this is that everyone is playing tight waiting for the next person to go broke so the final six can get on TV.

So Daniel has been stealing blinds on a regular basis and eveyone at the table knows it too because they are all good enough to know this and as such they are very likely to have a premium hand which definitely makes this a fold.

Even if they haven't got a premium hand then good luck to them..they were prepared to play back at you and unless you are 100% sure of this you simply have to fold because if you are wrong (and this is likely from the generaly tight play) then you are going to lose a relatively large number of chips to an opponent which is something you never want to do.
Givng the opponent 150k is preferable to the likely extra 500K which makes them significantly more dangerous at your expense.

Alas sometimes in poker you will throw away much better hands than this and quite frequently when you are in front but that's another story.

By folding I also believe that you could be setting up your opponents for a future busting out of their stack.

You have been stealing on a regular basis and this is an example of where you have been found out. You have 150k invested so simply give it up...your hand is not worth another 500K. This is a good example in my opinion of how you now having been caught out have an opportunity to switch from one playing style to another (eg from playing loose and aggressive to tight and aggressive).

There is no harm holdong your stack size in now switching after folding this hand to a tighter strategy as this will help fool your opponents on the next hand you play.

eg Now you have been found out then next time you play a hand make sure you have a decent premium hand then it is quite likely that someone will play back at you recalling the previous hand you folded and in this way you get to poker tournament utopia..namely someone playing back at you for all their chips with an inferior hand.

In other words I'm saying tht this is an excellent opportuntiy to fool opponents by using this as an opportunity to switch from one style to another which in my opinion is a crucial part of the game particualrly late on in tournaments.

You can of course continue to play the way you have been by contiuing to steal the blinds on subsequent hands because people are still going to be running scared of you as you can break them and they want to get to the final table but for me this is not the time to go to war.

OK then that's my waffling drivel come to an end.

I'll summarise by saying fold and use this as an opportunity to mix up your play by switching from one style to another even if it means not playing a hand over the next half hour or so.

Your rivals are the ones under pressure and your huge stack size offers you many more options than your weaker opponents. They may well suspect you have been stealing and that you may well be continuing to steal after this but they will never know for certain.