nomad_monad
Monday, July 16th, 2007, 4:45 PM
QUOTE (Merby @ Monday, July 16th, 2007, 4:50 PM)

I don't like the check behind on the turn. Normally, I'm a big advocate for pot control (search my strat posts if you doubt this

) but in this case, your hand is strong enough to lead again, especially when there are so many river cards that *destroy* your hand. For example, your hand is garbage on the river if any Q or 9 shows up. If a heart shows up, you're in trouble, also another K on the river kills your hand. Basically, half the deck is a scare card to your hand; for some, you would be hard pressed to call a 1/2 pot bet on the river, for other cards, you can still call, only to find out you're beat.
No, I definitely bet the turn here. It just so happens that in this particular case, we learn that we're likely behind, and we dump our hand. That being said, in no way would I regret the turn bet (even though it results in us giving up our hand on the turn).
our hand is already mostly destroyed with that turn card. as someone already noted, we're BA/WB here. that K brings a lot of outs for TP/OESD/flush draw hands that could realistically call the flop raise, and now pull a big turn semibluff even if we're ahead.
with a check behind on the turn a lot of the scare cards you talk about will also freeze a turned str8 or trigger a modest blocking/value bet. another spade will too sometimes. if he's got a set (realistically, only 77 from the way villain's been described), well we of course shouldn't be betting. the $14 we bet on the turn is usually about the price we will have to pay to see a river showdown, and sometimes not even then if the board gets bad enough (because it'll go check-check or we fold).
overall, i think the decision is sort of read dependent. against a player with a proclivity for passive play i lean towards betting the turn (since they're unlikely to go for a turn semibluff). but villain's pattern of going to flop against hero and repeatedly giving up looks more like a guy who has been looking for a spot to either trap us or make a stand, and this board looks like a pretty good one for him to do it with.