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aucu
Razz ($3/$6), Ante $0.25, Bring-In $1 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.50 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 7:spade:___folds
Seat 3: xx xx T:spade:___brings-in___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 5:diamond:___calls___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 6:heart:___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 5:club:___calls___folds
Hero: 8:diamond: A:club: 4:club:___raises

4th Street - (3.17 SB)

Seat 4: xx xx 5:diamond: K:heart:___calls
Hero: 8:diamond: A:club: 4:club: Q:heart:___bets

5th Street - (2.58 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 5:diamond: K:heart: A:heart:___calls
Hero: 8:diamond: A:club: 4:club: Q:heart: 3:heart:___bets

6th Street - (4.58 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 5:diamond: K:heart: A:heart: 3:spade:___calls
Hero: 8:diamond: A:club: 4:club: Q:heart: 3:heart: 5:heart:___bets

Question:
Q<K so I bet
Then he gets A & 3 and for him to stay in with the K There is a good chance that one of these countrfieted him.

How do you judge the % that a wheel card has paired a Vill?
jburn812
I would not bet q into k. You both drew bad chances are you both won't use that card. I'd honeslty try to get to the showdown without betting because either he paired and will check too or he is ahead. If he is indeed a donkey and bets with the worst hand then you pick him off anyways.
Cappy37
You both hold a 3 and a Ace, so it's far less likely those paired him. The 5 is his door card, and two other 5s were door cards, so that didn't pair him. You hold a 4, which make it far less likely he has one, but he *did* have something to call a PF raise, so at best he's probably holding something like a 2-7 underneath..

Remember half of the process is his view of the hand: It's possible he's assuming YOU are paired at this point, or were stealing PF. You've shown unbridled aggression from the get go, if he's holding a wheel or a 7 low, he's re-raising you on these streets 9 out of 10 times, because you've shown no inclination of leaving this hand, and are getting pot-odds to call reraises.

You have a solid 8 low right now with one card to come. You could easily be holding the better 8 low here, or he's drawing with a 9 low or worse. As for the actual percentage, just note door cards before they are discarded and go from there. I often use a pad and paper for it. I haven't seen a 2 and only one 6 and 7 is out, so you have up to 10 cards to improve on the river, that is, if you need to. How solid is your image at the table? He could be just calling you down.
yeffy
agreed with Cappy. I would bet 6th and then check call 7th with no improvement and obv bet with improvement.
HangukMiguk
if it were my guess, villain has the same hand as you, or one notch lower with a deuce and an eight down. maybe a 7, but most likely an 8.

bet 6th, check/call 7th unless you hit a 6 or 7. bet/call a 7, pump the 6.
checkymcfold
QUOTE (HangukMiguk @ Tuesday, July 10th, 2007, 12:45 PM) *
if it were my guess, villain has the same hand as you, or one notch lower with a deuce and an eight down. maybe a 7, but most likely an 8.

bet 6th, check/call 7th unless you hit a 6 or 7. bet/call a 7, pump the 6.
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