So my friend wants to make me a bet on the results of the Wimbledon tennis tournament. He wins if Federer wins and I win if anyone else wins. I was simply wondering what odds I should take for this bet to make sense. Anyone have any ideas?


Also, since there isn't anther thread, general Wimbledon discussions can go in here too.

Isn't this a maths thing? I'm pretty poor at math things but you could see how many entrants there are add up the total odds divide by number of entrants to give a profile of Wimbledon's "average" player odds wise. then he offers you those odds whereas you offer him the quoted odds for Federer. Bearing in mind that bookies odds are based on federer defeating the field until he wins, so should be about right. Or maybe your average player profile could be based on players in the top 16 seeds, discounting those with 30/1 who have no chance but will push your average up.

As you can see there is a distinct lack of calculation in this suggestion. However if this gets the ball rolling and some mathematicians proper offer some suggestions at least it helped.

I wouldn't bet against Federer unless you were getting something rediculous like 2/1 on him not winning it.

looking at the odds:

Federer, R 4/9
0.42/1

Nadal, R 7.9/1
8.6/1

Roddick, A 14.5/1
17/1

Djokovic, N 30/1
35/1

Hewitt, L 33/1
39/1

Nadal might have a bit of value, but other than that......

I certainly would not go for anything less than 2 to 1. I think that even 2 to 1 isn't a great deal.

Give me numbers, guys. What would you take for Federer to not win?

Given the facts, I think you should propose something truly ridiculous to see if he'll take it.

-Federer has won the last 4 Wimbledons.
-Most of these havent even been close, and no player has improved much over the last year except maybe Djokovic, who is a huge long shot.
-He has won 49 straight matches on grass. If you dont know the tournament structure, he needs to win 6 more to win Wimbledon.
-Nadal is his biggest challenger, but Federer beat him easily at last year's Wimbledon. Nadal has gotten worse off of clay over the last year.
-Federer has had by far the most dominant 3 year stretch of tennis in history.
-He is very durable and almost never gets hurt.
-There is much less luck in Tennis than in other sports. The best player is much more likely to win than in Golf, or whatever team sport you can think of.

The official line is about 2-1 that Federer wins, and I think that this price is an extremely good one to bet FOR Federer. I dont know why they have it so low. The only remote consideration I can think of is that Federer has played slightly less well this year, although he is still easily #1.

Suppose someone had won 4 events in a row. What are the odds of them winning each single event to make the probability of this 50 percent? 84 percent, or 5.3 to 1. So even assuming you knew absolutely nothing about tennis, 2 to 1 would be ridiculously low. I think the true odds are probably closer to 5 to 10-1 that he doesnt win it. But since the official odds are 2-1, it's hard to imagine a scenario where your friend agrees to a 5-1 bet or worse.

Try proposing something like 7-1. Your friend will probably laugh and refuse, but if you accept much less you are probably the sucker.

The best thing I can think of is to get like a 4-1 bet with your friend, then bet 2-1 for Federer using the official odds. This way you are guaranteed to win. Of course, dont tell him you did this until after the tournament.

I think 7 to 1 is close to the correct odds. His resume for this event is unbelievable. I'm getting 4 to 1, as you suggested, and am pretty sure that I'm getting the raw deal. It's not a lot of money and it's a friend, so I don't mind too much.

Well good luck. You'll need it.

A few other sickening facts-

Besides the French has won 9 of the last 10 slams.

Has gone 68-1 in those tournaments.

Has won 29 straight Wimbledon matches.

But on the bright side, supposedly smart oddsmakers seem to have uncovered some facts that I havent been able to.

here's my book's line Yorke:

6/27/2007 6:10 AM Odds to win the 2007 ATP Wimbledon Federer Must Start Round 1 for Bets to be Action
751 Roger Federer -270
752 Any Other Player +220


seems like a decent bet in light of SilentSnows' stats on Federer (bet on Federer) -- good luck either way Yorke

Also, for those who have been watching, I don't really understand the challenge system. I mean, I understand the rules, but I don't understand how every time there is a challenge, it is done with a computer recreation of the event. It is all automatic. Is there a chip in the ball or something? What's the deal?

There are 8 cameras around the court that track the ball and the trajectory is recreated on computer screen.

That's pretty neat.