what kinda bet are we putting in here to maximize EV?? not a lot is known about the villain.


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $78.80
CO: $247.25
Hero: $211.65
SB: $105.45
BB: $181.20

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with A 4
2 folds, Hero raises to $7, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 8 J 2 ($21, 3 players)
SB bets $6, BB folds, Hero raises to $18, SB calls.

Turn: 6 ($57, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: 5 ($57, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets ???

Looks like villain has a jack, and knows you hit your flush draw. I wouldn't expect to get much from this hand at all - a small bet looks like it wants a call. My plan would be to make an overbet of like $65 to make it look like a buy. If he folds, well, you weren't getting anything anyways.

20~

Bet about $10 and call when he pushes the SF into your A-high flush.

I like betting turn. If you think a bit and bet like 1/2 or 1/3 pot on turn he'll prolly misinterpret it as weakness and tag along with a smaller flush or other hands.

Id bet about half pot on river. An overbet makes no sense because you would gladly check down any hand worth anything here to try and showdown and the only thing you would overbet here that makes sense is absolute air. Since you are likely to have caught a piece of flop or at least have a pair, it makes no sense to try and bluff because in reality you would check this down. An overbet just looks like exactly what it is, the nuts trying to look supicious enough to get a call.

I bet about 20. I really prefer betting turn though.

It is pretty hard to put the villain on a heart here, I guess maybe KhJ, QhJ, ThJ, but they also might fold to the reraise and it would have to be one of those exact 3 hands.

Any non heart hand is folding the turn. Plus even if they have a weaker heart, they might call the turn but probably not a big bet on the river, so I am getting the same value if I bet either street. However, by checking behind on the turn, I might get a call by the J or 2 pair on the river. as well as most lower flush draws. Plus I can possibly induce the bluff.

Not saying I am right or wrong, but thats my thinking anyways.