Villian is LAG. I felt he wouldn't 2 barrel a scary board like that if I check called with air. River hits his range for sure. I'm repping an 8/straight/or boat. The only hand he can put me on and call is air.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $452.90
CO: $621.40
Button: $221
SB: $194.90
Hero: $400

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with 6 6
UTG folds, CO raises to $14, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 5 7 8 ($30, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $24, Hero calls.

Turn: 8 ($78, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: A ($78, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $55, Hero raises to $200,

Ehhh, I don't really like it because it really does look like air. After you checked the turn and it got checked behind, a river check-raise isn't very believable. You're risking $200 to win $133, and I don't think you take this pot down from a lag greater than 60% of the time.

You're representing A8...and that's it. Almost no other reasonably strong hand pulls this line. The reason why check-raise bluffing the river is so rare is that it mostly tells an inconsistent story...which is something you don't want to be doing when you're bluffing. It may actually work, but if I'm villain, I'm calling with any pair of aces.

How often are you check calling the flop with a set? I'm guessing >5% of the time.

You almost never have a big ace here either, unless its AcKc/Qc but you would repop those preflop most of the time I hope.

Bottom line is.. I can't see you playing a strong hand this way, but I can see you show up with missed draws here. Hands like JcTc, or AcXc. Although it would be stupid to turn a weak ace into a bluff here since we have decent showdown value.

I don't like it.

FYP

OP is right, we need to think about villain's hand here a little bit before we get too critical.
Villain's line here is actually very troubling, too.
What would the villain have bet, checked, then bet with?
I'm guessing a big ace with a missed naked club draw?
Before we wonder if our bluff will work, we need to wonder what villain has.
Problem is, if villain is LAG, we're getting called a lot by aces up.
Which makes it too bad we didn't hit a straight.

I disagree about what this line looks like and I think if we made the same post from the villain's perspective while holding AK, everyone would be saying, "Fold. You can only beat a bluff. Looks like 8-9 to me."

If you think the villain can fold AK or whatever ace he's likely to have here, I think it works. In my game, this gets called every single time.

Cause you're the villain and you're a station.

I don't like the hand. The point made about the frequency with which you check/call with a set is the most valid point. If you think the A hit him, then trying to get him to lay it down is probably a losing effort. If you think he's got something like KQ or JT or something and is bluffing the A, then you can call since you beat those hands. This is a case of FPS where you think you're probably behind and you think you can probably make him drop the hand, but you're not really sure where he's at. The problem, as Cobalt stated, is that your story is inconsistent.

Overall, it gets a slight thumbs down from me. I like that you're at least thinking about (and following through) with river c/r bluffs. Next time, just tell a more believable story.

It really looks like you've played a flush draw and hit the Ace on the end. your best chance is if he holds the Ac and is an over-thinker. At 2/4 online with only 30 secs to think about it though you are in trouble.

You've put the horse before the cart here and are concerning yourself with 3rd level thinking. ie What does he think I have.

What you should be doing is concerning yourself with 2nd level thinking before taking the next step. What does it look like he's holding? He's played it just like a big Ace. Getting him off 2 pair with a good kicker is not going to happen a lot.

It would be rare for him to hold, and then fold, anything you beat.

I like this play if you think the villain has enough thought process to lay down AK to A10 here. i would defintely play 89 in the way that you just played 55. how successful the play is really all depends on table image and how complex the villian is.

I agree with this. I think the most obvious thing is that I check/raised with an ace hitting river, when villian knows he was preflop raiser and that card was supposed to be a scare card for me. If I posted this hand with me being villian and having AK, I really think many of these same opinions would be saying "fold fold fold" especially if villian was comptent (which I hope I am seen as)because the truth is, all we beat is a busted flush draw. I think it also helps that villian has never seen me bluff and is competent himself.

Also, although I personally would reraise a set on this flop because it was so coordinated, it is not uncommon for people to cold call on it and after hitting turn full house, further slowplaying.

As for my "story", I think it is actually more believable that I have something like trips then a busted flush draw. I think many people who turn trips like I am representing, don't lead the turn. They usually check turn and fire river. I just replaced firing river with check/raising because it is a much more powerful play. I could have hands like 68,89, or A8 which call his flop continuation bet then trip up on turn.

I actually think calling this river c/r is -EV with AK against a TAG because like I said, all we beat is air and how many TAG players pull this move with a busted flush draw? Not many. On a side note, for all those people saying I played it like a busted flush draw, would the story be more believable if flop was rainbow?

A good TAG almost never shows up here with an 8 here when he calls preflop vs. a LAG. Implied odds, where 8 type of hands rely on are simply not there most of the time vs. a LAG.

Also, just post the hand 3 months fromnow fro the other perspective with AK and look at the responses. I've done this a few times and it can be interesting at times.

A hand almost identical to this was posted on 2+2 a few weeks ago or so. Predictably, the responses consisted of "fold" times 100 saying villian showed up with a hand more often then not.

I originally planned to post myself as villian with a hand like AQ and then my move a month later but I decided I was too lazy and I didn't feel like waiting a month.

Edit: I think it's wrong to say a good TAG almost never has an 8 here. That's much too narrow of a range for 6 max, even for a TAG.

I think its wrong is not going to do it. I need an explanation

I'm not saying a TAG can't have an 8 here, but I think they fold an 8 PF >80% of the time. At least.

"Most" responses might be that, but I don't think I'd be telling you that. No, I wouldn't feel great about the call, but like I said...the story's inconsistent, so it's a call that you'd need to make with an ace.

You've keyed in on the "typical" line for trips or house...you would've probably just lead the river after the turn checked through. If you would've pulled this same check-raise with all those real hands that you mentioned, fine...the bluffs more believable...but I don't think it's a very profitable line from a TAG. River check-raises with strong hands are good lines from LAG tricky opponents because there's a great deal of doubt about what they hold.

Like I said...a slightly thinking villain given these images may fold an ace here, but if he thinks deeply at all...why would you pull this line? If you truly have a strong hand, it's much more likely that you'll get a big bet called on the river than you'll get your check-raise called.

As AK said, I do complement you on the multi-level thinking...but we're just warning you that in this particular scenario, the river check-raise isn't a particularly good line.

I do check/raise the river if I'm fairly sure villian will fire with weaker hand often but I don't think this villian has seen me do it, and if he has, he certainly hasn't seen me check/raise bluff the river. So I think this has really no standing here. I also usually play LAG but at the time cards and table structure dictated TAG play.

I will pull this line every time I have a monster as well because I think that the ace is a huge part of villian's range and he is almost always firing this river to either take me off a hand with air or if he has an ace. Yes, most people will fire this river with trips but it isn't the most profitable situation. If I fire river with trips he calls with an ace and I win one pot bet. If I check/raise I can earn two+ pot bets at the most and one pot bet at the minimum since he will almost always fire here.

I also think river check raises from TAGs are more scary then river check raises from LAGs simply because a LAG is more likely to be playing loose/wilder then a TAG and is more likely to get out of hand with a river check-raise.

Overall, I still say if I am villian with AKo, it is very -EV to call this bet on river against solid opponents.

The reason I wouldn't believe you had an 8 in this spot is because with such a coordinated board I think an 8 wouldn't check the turn; he'd be worried about the straight and flush cards coming on the river. Maybe if you've played this particular line with a great hand before and he's seen it, I'd love it against the same opponent. Otherwise, what do you think about leading out on the turn as a possible line in this situation?