you guys fold here/gamble??

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $44.40
UTG+1: $50
MP1: $29.15
MP2: $13.10
CO: $83.35
Button: $40.60
Hero: $49.50
BB: $54.80

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is SB with
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 4 folds, Hero calls, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.5, 3 players)
Hero bets $1, BB calls, UTG+1 raises to $6, Hero calls, BB raises all-in $54.3,

how did utg+1 respond to the ai? i think we're up against a set here a LOT (5s, 6s make sense, qs dont really) the call/shove of the bb is really strong, and i think unless we have reads that he is a moron i let this go

Is the flop you're looking for ?

Oh, but wait you could lose to


Instacall.

he folded

Call! OESFD is a monster flop. If all your outs are clean outs, you're a favorite to win the hand.

His massive overbet says to me: scared Q, scared 2-pair.

I was short of time to figure out what to do here...obviously he was protecting his hand.

Here's the question. I'm not invested heavily on this hand and most likely this guy has a monster in his hand. Is this a +EV call down the road?

Obviously I have a ton of outs, but if donkey has pushed with a higher flush draw i'm pretty much just drawing to a straight/straight flush

paul wasicka folded there too...

Ok, you're getting 1.42:1 so you need > ~41% equity to break even. AT WORST, you have 8 eight outs (~33% to win) and that's only when he has a pair and a higher flush draw like KcQc, AcQc or some variation. There's heaps of other hands in his range that make calling correct. Even if he flipped over top set of queens you would have to call because you have 41.11% chance of winning. In fact, even if you knew he would only do this with a set, calling is correct.:

Board: 5c 6c Qs

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.785% 41.78% 00.00% 3723 0.00 { 4c3c }
Hand 1: 58.215% 58.22% 00.00% 5187 0.00 { QQ, 66-55 }

More realistically:

Board: 5c 6c Qs

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.298% 47.30% 00.00% 11238 0.00 { 4c3c }
Hand 1: 52.702% 52.70% 00.00% 12522 0.00 { QQ+, 66-55, AcKc, KcQc, QcJc }

And i'd consider that a conservative range.

biggs...thanks for doing the math. I did make the call although at the time i almost folded since I surely knew I was behind. I happen to catch a 2 on the turn.

Villian flopped a set of 6's.

At the time of the call I thought I was making this call just to gamble and didn't get a chance to consider the pot odds and the price to make this call due to the limited time.

You've just got to remember you are never in really bad shape when you have a straight flush draw (even if he had 8c7c, you still have 28% equity). This was probably not the most ideal situation to have an OESFD - you were only against one player, no fold equity, not the best pot odds etc - but as you can see it is still +EV to call off all your chips.

i would have made it like 20 or something after the UTG raised. push bet raise these kinds of hands.

LOL

No, that is not LOL. That is bad. He probably would have beat Jamie faggot Gold if he didn't fold that hand

Id call here, every time.

I have a lot of respect for Paul Wasicka's fold there. A lot of players wouldn't have been able to do that.

I almost think BB is on a FD himself.

Maybe a weak Q with FD. I see it pretty often where someone decides to shovel after a raise just to try and get a little FE, and if not, at least they have outs.

what would i do in your situation. I'd call.

With a hand like this, you're looking to PUT the shovel in, not call it. When you're in a great semi-bluffing spot, you want to, like, make the semi-bluff. There's no way your "calling an all-in" equity is close to as good as the equity you get from picking the pot up right there and getting a solid hand to fold. So use the fact that you're invincible here and make a solid reraise instead of calling the six.

Wang