Caesar's Palace 2/5 NLHE (9-handed)

Cobalt $800
CO $500
BB $700

Cobalt is MP2 w/ K Q . Game is generally playing loose pre-flop. I'm viewed as TAG. Not much of a read on CO yet, but I don't think he's getting out of line. BB is new to the table.

Pre-flop:
1 fold, MP1 calls, Cobalt calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB checks

Flop ($30): A Q J (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, Cobalt checks, CO checks, Button checks

Turn ($30): A (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets $20, 1 fold, Cobalt calls, CO calls, 2 folds

River ($70): A (3 players)
BB checks, Cobalt bets $40, CO raises to $120, 1 fold, Cobalt ?


I remark, "Wow...do you really have it or are we tied?" Villain seems pretty comfortable/happy and replies that he'll show.

Thats pretty weird for him to overcall on the turn if he has three aces. But, its a weird play if he has a Q aswell.

I think I call this. There is quite a bit of money in he pot. Once you made the comment he knows pretty sure that you don't have the ace, and he can feel at ease and show you his Q.

he checked top pair in the CO?? and then overcalled with three A's on the turn I think you have to call this.

As I learned the hard way for 4.5 buyins in a row now, never underestimate the poor play of the villain.

I like my 3-1 odds that he's just a moron somewhere in there. Go ahead and call that bet.

KT sounds about right.

yeah but you have to pay attention to what he tells you... he could have played that bad. I think you have to pay it off.

While he doesn't say, "yeah, I have it," he says, "I'll show." Everyone wants to show their quads.

I love showing my bluffs to especially in big pots to small bets on the river

Before I get into anything else, I call here.

Okay, here's the only thought process I can think of for a hand that beats you. Villain limps with some suited junky ace. He flops top pair but doesn't like the three broadway cards, so he just checks through. He turns trips, but he's still concerned about being trapped by a bigger hand, so he just calls. He rivers quads and finally can't figure out a way he might be behind and raises.

I had this exact same scenario come up a few months ago, though, and the guy showed up with KK, so who knows?

Call.

Villain tables QQ.

Chop chop sucka!

Call.


Probly dont bet the river unless both players are insanely bad and might call with Jx.

I think you need to play live. =)

Guess we're done with discussion here. I think this is closer than most of y'all are giving it credit for since we're pretty much never winning this pot, so it's just a matter of how often we'll chop it. I posted what I believe to be a reasonable equity range.

Anyway, I attempted to make the "superstar" laydown (I guess I've been in a bit of that mode lately) and mucked it. He flipped the Qd9d and I got confirmation that my read was off. My justification...went with my read...I was wrong...it does happen on occasion. =)

If I'd seen the guy play for an hour, I would've easily made the call there.