So we are at Level 7 (400/800) with about 280 left, about an hour to go till the end of Day 1 and my stack is down to just above average at 7k+. SB & Villain both clearly know what they are doing and have similar sized stacks.
Villain (EP2) open raises to 800. I flat call with A2cJcT. Folds to SB who calls. Pot is 2800
Flop comes 4c 5c J. SB checks, Villain bets and I raise (obv), both call. Pot is 5200
Turn is Qh
check x3
River is Td, SB bets out 800, Villain ponders a bit (with A45x) and then folds and it's up to me.....and I fold, thinking there is a good chance SB has AK if he can bet into 2 players like that. My stack is down to 5.5ish and I concentrate on getting it back up. It turns out SB had A246.
In retrospect I think I should have called since the potential upside from a stack/equity p-o-v of my 2 pair being good (up to 12K) far outweigh the extra 800 (15%ish) that my stack would diminish by if he has it.
Having dropped down into the danger zone, I then was forced to fold in another (HU) pot where I had a 25% chance of being good for half, and where I would have called in an instant with a bigger stack.....pretty soon it was "go big or go home" time as I didn't want to have to come back for Day 2 with a piddly stack......so I didn't ;-(
Full Version: Pivotal Hand From Wsop
hey cham,
in a tournament setting with meaningful blinds, that's a 3bet preflop, imho.
as for the river, it's tough and i can imagine doing either, but i call as a standard line in a relatively big pot.
as you implied, the biggest questions to be asking yourself in spots like these is "if i call and i'm wrong, how much does it hurt? if i call and i'm right, how much does it help? if i fold and i'm wrong, how much does it hurt? if i fold and i'm right, how much does it help?"
since the difference between 12k and 5k >>>> 4200 and 5k, and since it's obviously a difficult decision and all the draws missed, i definitely lean toward a call in this spot.
but i think it's important to note that starting this hand off with a 3bet makes it entirely likely that you'll be the one making the other guys make a decision on the end. it also increases the value of your J3 club draw in a HU pot.
rough finish, gg paul.
in a tournament setting with meaningful blinds, that's a 3bet preflop, imho.
as for the river, it's tough and i can imagine doing either, but i call as a standard line in a relatively big pot.
as you implied, the biggest questions to be asking yourself in spots like these is "if i call and i'm wrong, how much does it hurt? if i call and i'm right, how much does it help? if i fold and i'm wrong, how much does it hurt? if i fold and i'm right, how much does it help?"
since the difference between 12k and 5k >>>> 4200 and 5k, and since it's obviously a difficult decision and all the draws missed, i definitely lean toward a call in this spot.
but i think it's important to note that starting this hand off with a 3bet makes it entirely likely that you'll be the one making the other guys make a decision on the end. it also increases the value of your J3 club draw in a HU pot.
rough finish, gg paul.
I would have 3-bet preflop because 1, I had a 2-way hand, 2, this type of hands play better post-flop short-handed in position, 3, I wanna see if anyone would cold call 3 bets or even cap it preflop (and hence to have a rough estimate to the quality of my villains' hands, unless you were playing against a mad genius like Mike Matusow who would cap preflop on BB with craps), 4, playing tournament is like robbing a bank, ( 
ok I have never done it), the more aggressive and hustle the better from my experience. But of course you may had some other considerations to not 3-betting it preflop depending on the table condition.
Raisng the flop is standard as you did to build the pot, to increase your both equities, and to determine your villains' hand strength in relation to the board. Their flat callings could indicate that they didn't have a power house most of time (Just for example, remember last year you played against another player who happned to have a trip on the flop and then the pot was capped? That's an indication of a made hand vs a great drawing hand). On the flop you have to estimate your villains' hand strength, do they have a made hand, a drawing hand or a mediocre hand, that determines your actions on the 4th and the 5th streets.
I would have continued to bet on the turn, weak means weak most of the time (calling the flop and checking the turn by your villains... unless they know the odds and are trickily slow-playing a set on the flop for instance, but can't always assume a monster under the bed). Your checking is bad here imo, you have gained additional outs and you have enough pot equity to bet here (and hence create fold equity or buy you some options on the river at least). Checking here is like the french waving the white flags against the smart players.
Calling the river is standard imo, losing another BB makes not much difference, winning that pot makes a huge difference especially in the tournament environment. As said by many others, fold early and call later.
As on the flop, you need to be prepared to estimate your villains' hands and increase your pot equity, and mentally be ready to handle the brick-brick situations.
As a side note, if I were SB I would have bet the turn, that's what I would do on the turn sometimes to be prepared to steal the pot when another one bricks on the river, to represent something that I don't have, and even if I get quartered on the river, that's a small price to pay comparing to the pot I can steal. But anyway SB made a nice read and play on the river (Btw betting the turn and river if I were sb of course depends on my reads of my villains are on the draw, sometimes when you are playing against someone who also knows the ABC of o8, the stealer is the winner and it adds it to the long term profit. Yes, stealing is a very important part in SH o8 imo).
Bet bet bet, no fear. Being aggressive is EV neutral to slightly EV+ many times, but the beauty of it is it enables you to get the best out of it when you have the best of it.
ok I have never done it), the more aggressive and hustle the better from my experience. But of course you may had some other considerations to not 3-betting it preflop depending on the table condition.Raisng the flop is standard as you did to build the pot, to increase your both equities, and to determine your villains' hand strength in relation to the board. Their flat callings could indicate that they didn't have a power house most of time (Just for example, remember last year you played against another player who happned to have a trip on the flop and then the pot was capped? That's an indication of a made hand vs a great drawing hand). On the flop you have to estimate your villains' hand strength, do they have a made hand, a drawing hand or a mediocre hand, that determines your actions on the 4th and the 5th streets.
I would have continued to bet on the turn, weak means weak most of the time (calling the flop and checking the turn by your villains... unless they know the odds and are trickily slow-playing a set on the flop for instance, but can't always assume a monster under the bed). Your checking is bad here imo, you have gained additional outs and you have enough pot equity to bet here (and hence create fold equity or buy you some options on the river at least). Checking here is like the french waving the white flags against the smart players.
Calling the river is standard imo, losing another BB makes not much difference, winning that pot makes a huge difference especially in the tournament environment. As said by many others, fold early and call later.
As on the flop, you need to be prepared to estimate your villains' hands and increase your pot equity, and mentally be ready to handle the brick-brick situations.
As a side note, if I were SB I would have bet the turn, that's what I would do on the turn sometimes to be prepared to steal the pot when another one bricks on the river, to represent something that I don't have, and even if I get quartered on the river, that's a small price to pay comparing to the pot I can steal. But anyway SB made a nice read and play on the river (Btw betting the turn and river if I were sb of course depends on my reads of my villains are on the draw, sometimes when you are playing against someone who also knows the ABC of o8, the stealer is the winner and it adds it to the long term profit. Yes, stealing is a very important part in SH o8 imo).
Bet bet bet, no fear. Being aggressive is EV neutral to slightly EV+ many times, but the beauty of it is it enables you to get the best out of it when you have the best of it.
I think you are probably both right about the 3 bet pre-flop (although it would have made no difference given the hands here), but I was in stack-retention mode.
I'm not sure if I like putting in another 15% of my stack on the turn with only second pair but a strong draw here, especially as anyone that calls 2 cold on the flop is going to call the turn, even if they hate it. Also I paid for a cheap turn card so I want to take it here.
The key point here is the E(Tournament Equity)V of the actions on the end, which is where I should have invested the 15%.
I'm not sure if I like putting in another 15% of my stack on the turn with only second pair but a strong draw here, especially as anyone that calls 2 cold on the flop is going to call the turn, even if they hate it. Also I paid for a cheap turn card so I want to take it here.
The key point here is the E(Tournament Equity)V of the actions on the end, which is where I should have invested the 15%.
QUOTE (Chamonyx @ Friday, June 8th, 2007, 8:29 AM) 
I'm not sure if I like putting in another 15% of my stack on the turn with only second pair but a strong draw here, especially as anyone that calls 2 cold on the flop is going to call the turn, even if they hate it. Also I paid for a cheap turn card so I want to take it here.
Based upon the hands you gave, I ran a simulation on CardPlayer's odds calculator. Here are the odds of scooping, winning the high outright, winning the low outright, and expected equity (EE) on the turn.
You:
Scoop: 36.11%
High: 50.00%
Low 0% (Can't win outright)
EE: 0.528 (Or 52.8% of the pot)
Villian:
Scoop: 16.67%
High: 33.33%
Low: 0%
EE: 0.250
SB:
Scoop:0%
High: 16.77%
Low: 8.33%
EE: 0.222
Have way to many outs to just check. Any club (9 cards), K (3), J(2), 8(3), 7(3), 6(3), and 3(3) should get you at least 1/4 of the pot, if not 1/2 or scoop. This doesn't take into that you know what the other players have. If my math is right you have 26 outs. But then again, I rarely play Omaha 8/B tournaments, and couldn't afford to play in any WSOP event.
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