Villain is 72/14/1.4 117 hands

I've been 3 betting his button raises a lot and raising his continuation bets with any piece of the flop, and I think I might be tilting him.

Ultimate Bet
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25./$0.5
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with J 8
2 folds, CO raises, Button folds, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: J 6 K (6SB, 3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, CO bets, Hero raises, BB folds, CO 3-bets, Hero caps, CO calls.

Turn: K (7BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

River: Q (9BB, 2 players)
Hero bets

Like???

looks good to me, the check call could be the flush draw but it could be lots of things... bet calling?

On the river? Definitely, pot to large to fold for one more bet, especially given my read.

Also, showing down J8 here after my action would be so much fun.

I like the flop raise.

The cap is a read-based play. Tough to really comment on it without being at the table, imo. There's a few situations where I'll cap 2nd pair no draw, but it's generally tough to explain, and only when I "feel" it.

As played, gotta follow through on the turn, especially since that's a great card for us. It lowers the chance he's got a king, for one.

I assume you're folding the turn to a raise?

River, I'd probably c/c here. I think his flop 3-bet could easily be a flush draw, but I'd like to get to showdown, cheaply too.

If he's tilting, I'd expect him to bet a huge range when checked to here, which includes pretty much 100% of the hands he'd call a bet with, and some more that he can bluff with.

What???????????????????????
Stats like these I'd never bet/fold this turn.

He's bet, 3-bet, and then raised the turn after our flop cap... he'd need far more maniacal stats than that for me to call down with 2nd pair no kicker, I think.

His stats aren't thaaaaaat maniacal, although 1.4 AF is pretty high for a 74 VPIP.

Exactly which is why he might raise on the turn with much less than a J simply because the K paired and he thinks whatever the hell he has is good.

Yeah, meh. We'd need the best hand at showdown 20% of the time to call down.

Well I think we have it 20% of the time. Whatever I'm drunk and haven't played in two weeks waitng for my cashout to get here for my Vegas trip next week. But I still think bet/fold would be a terrible play here, against a guy like this might as well check/call.

I don't think his stats are telling the whole story here though. He had been raising a lot on the button and making a lot of continuation bets, and I had been playing back at him almost everytime. Villain was definitely frustrated that he couldn't steal my blind so easily, imo.

Why are we cold-calling preflop? Seems like a pretty easy fold against a co raise whos pfr stats are pretty passive, with a hand with no showdown value in a 2/5 structure.

Good point.

I'd probably call here in a 2/3 structure, and probably a 3/5 structure.

Although, I very very rarely call out of the SB as the first caller of a raise.

I agree. I should have 3-bet here instead of cold calling.

I hate it.
All of it.

Preflop seems horrible.
Calling a raise from the worst possible position with J8s can't be good.

I understand Villain's open-raising range here could be huge.
But if we think he is on tilt, then it is more likely going to cost us much more to see showdown.
So let's play with something that has some showdown value.
Like Ace-high.
J8 ain't gunna cut it against a guy like this.

And while I feel that folding preflop is clearly the better option, if you insist on playing a hand from the small-blind, you should almost always be 3betting with it.
Because even if you think you can completely outplay the PFR postflop from out of position with a marginal hand, you still do not want a 3rd player in the pot who also has position on you.

Point: If you never called a raise from the small blind again, you would do just fine.



This is bad for you.
Villain recognizes that you have likely been raising his bets with marginal hands.
Just like you are right now!
So he probably has an accurate read on you and has you correctly pegged for something weak like bad-2nd pair.

This means that he is probably less likely to make the same mistake of firing blank continuation bets when he misses, since he is expecting your raise.
It means that he should now be adjusting by only continuing to bet with his better hands.
And it means that he is more likely to push harder with these good hands.

Point: Once Villain has the read on you that you described, he should tend to play more tight-aggressive. And thus you need to tighten up quickly as well, before he takes advantage of your tendencies.

As played,
Check-raising the flop is good.
But the cap seems horrible.
Are we trying to protect our hand by getting him to fold his Ace-high?
Surely we don't expect him to 3bet this turn and call this cap and a turn bet and a river bet with a lesser hand than 2nd pair??
So the bets can't be for value.
And since Villain sees us as a LAG who has been raising his cont-bets loosely, he is not going to fold a hand better than 2nd pair.

Point:
We have a marginal hand.
Given our image, better hands are always going to call us down.
But lesser hands are so weak that they should still be folding.
Thus we gain very little by being aggressive with such a hand.
I check-call after the flop 3bet to see a cheap showdon and let Villain bluff off money if he chooses.

By the time we reach the river, we have a bad 3rd pair.
Expecting to win more than you are going to lose with a bet here must be wrong.
This has to be a check-call.

I understand that the rare times he actually does call your river bet here with a lesser hand give you great satisfaction.
(Like I presume was the case in this hand.)
And those are the results that are most easily remembered.
So this encourages you to keep making these plays.
But I really believe this play is very bad.
And continuing to bet rivers with such a weak hand against a Villain who has shown so much aggression is a large spew.



--CM

I don't hate it as much as CM, but share many of his views.

The most basic advice I'd have is that a river check/call is better than a bet.