Ultimate Bet
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25./$0.5
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with T T
2 folds, Hero raises, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 9 J T (5.4SB, 2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

Turn: 4 (3.7BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: Q (5.7BB, 2 players)
Hero...

Villain is 65/0/0.5 over about 65 hands.

Pretty easy value bet, imo.

What does villain call with on this board that we beat?

nothing I check call,

Lots.

Pair, two pair.

The Q could have easily paired up his OESD, or two paired his pair + OESD with Q9 or something.

The only thing we lose value from is a flush draw, when he bluffs when checked to, but even then, he doesn't bluff all the time, on a scary board like this... maybe.

I expect like bottom pair enough to bet here.

bet fold or bet call?

Probably call... it is a decent bluff raise card, I suppose.

Thing is, unless he had an 8, which is possible, the Q fills a gutshot, only. I'd think a K would be a far worse card than the queen.

It's close, meh. I could c/c here too. When I'm playing my A game, and getting all those v-bets in, I'd v-bet this river.

If I held AJ, I would check-call.

But our set is strong enough to beat a ton of hands that would call this river.
So I bet-call.

There is a good chance that the Q hit our opponent.
Because a lot of the chasing hands involve the Q.
But there is no reason to assume it allowed him to pass us up.

Villain could have been chasing with A 4
And now that he has gone all the way to the river, he figures it only costs him 1 more bet to show down the bottom pair that he hit.
So he pays us off.
And lots of similar hands pay us off as well.



Agreed.
If Villain is only on a draw, it is more likely he held the Q (with an oesd hoping for a K) than the K (with a gutshot hoping for a Q).


Point: When we have a strong hand against only one opponent, it is unlikely that the scary river card allowed our single opponent to pass us up.
So we need to keep our chin up and collect value one more time with a river bet.

Note: I understand that it gets discouraging when Villain shows down the King in this situation.
But I really believe that, overall, you will gain value here from loose calls vastly more than you will encounter the K.


--CM

i agree with Zach, i bet it here. i think checking here is just a way of not getting the most of it. and if the raise over the top, you got odds to call it.lol.

THAT TURTLE IS SO FRICKIN CUTE

I WANT ONE THAT BOUNCES

It's Raphael.